Brewer PECOTA stats

[TooLiveBrew]

Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.

[Ennder]

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.

Edited February 1, 2008 by Ennder

[Ennder]

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.

Edited February 1, 2008 by Ennder

[Ennder]

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.

Edited February 1, 2008 by Ennder

[TooLiveBrew]

That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?

[TooLiveBrew]

That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?

[TooLiveBrew]

That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

 

This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?

[MoneyballMan]

These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.

Thanks much - actually had just answered my question with their email update I received this afternoon that indicated the spreadsheet was available today.

[MoneyballMan]

These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.

Thanks much - actually had just answered my question with their email update I received this afternoon that indicated the spreadsheet was available today.

[MoneyballMan]

These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.

Thanks much - actually had just answered my question with their email update I received this afternoon that indicated the spreadsheet was available today.

[PKBadger]

DrWood wrote:

considering the projections either represent a drop-off from last season, or a minor improvement, even for very young players, it is pretty pessimistic except for Cameron (which must be due to change in ballparks) and Hall (they are expecting a fair bounce-back). Last year: Weeks, .807; Cameron, .759, Braun, 1.004; Fielder 1.013; Hart, .892; Hall, .740; Hardy .786; Kendall .610.

 

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

 

To clarify (and in part to cover my own ass because I didn't look at last year's numbers http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif), I was more excited about the balance of the lineup if Cameron and Hall live up to their PECOTA numbers. I didn't think JJ's power numbers last year were sustainable so his slight decrease doesn't worry me. Not sure that I agree with PECOTA about Fielder, but I could see Braun taking a dip in his sophomore season if pitchers are able to study him more and exploit his weaknesses.

[PKBadger]

DrWood wrote:

considering the projections either represent a drop-off from last season, or a minor improvement, even for very young players, it is pretty pessimistic except for Cameron (which must be due to change in ballparks) and Hall (they are expecting a fair bounce-back). Last year: Weeks, .807; Cameron, .759, Braun, 1.004; Fielder 1.013; Hart, .892; Hall, .740; Hardy .786; Kendall .610.

 

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

 

To clarify (and in part to cover my own ass because I didn't look at last year's numbers http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif), I was more excited about the balance of the lineup if Cameron and Hall live up to their PECOTA numbers. I didn't think JJ's power numbers last year were sustainable so his slight decrease doesn't worry me. Not sure that I agree with PECOTA about Fielder, but I could see Braun taking a dip in his sophomore season if pitchers are able to study him more and exploit his weaknesses.

[PKBadger]

DrWood wrote:

considering the projections either represent a drop-off from last season, or a minor improvement, even for very young players, it is pretty pessimistic except for Cameron (which must be due to change in ballparks) and Hall (they are expecting a fair bounce-back). Last year: Weeks, .807; Cameron, .759, Braun, 1.004; Fielder 1.013; Hart, .892; Hall, .740; Hardy .786; Kendall .610.

 

Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.

 

To clarify (and in part to cover my own ass because I didn't look at last year's numbers http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif), I was more excited about the balance of the lineup if Cameron and Hall live up to their PECOTA numbers. I didn't think JJ's power numbers last year were sustainable so his slight decrease doesn't worry me. Not sure that I agree with PECOTA about Fielder, but I could see Braun taking a dip in his sophomore season if pitchers are able to study him more and exploit his weaknesses.