Brewer PECOTA stats

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

 

Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year)

Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539)

Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618)

JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463)

Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year)

Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433)

Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425)

Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year)

 

I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

 

Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year)

Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539)

Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618)

JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463)

Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year)

Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433)

Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425)

Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year)

 

I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

[DrWood]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

[DrWood]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

[DrWood]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.

[Ennder]

I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.

[TooLiveBrew]

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections

 

Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well.

 

Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and...

 

The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

 

The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels.

 

Oh, and a sidenote -

 

Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP

 

this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.

[TooLiveBrew]

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections

 

Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well.

 

Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and...

 

The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

 

The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels.

 

Oh, and a sidenote -

 

Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP

 

this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.

[TooLiveBrew]

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections

 

Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well.

 

Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and...

 

The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

 

The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels.

 

Oh, and a sidenote -

 

Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP

 

this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.

[BuckyTuba]

Why don't you nerds back it up to the statistical analysis board?

 

Great stuff as usual. Some of the numbers are projecting a little low (braun/fielder) but it's interesting to see them predict Capuano making a solid turnaround.

[BuckyTuba]

Why don't you nerds back it up to the statistical analysis board?

 

Great stuff as usual. Some of the numbers are projecting a little low (braun/fielder) but it's interesting to see them predict Capuano making a solid turnaround.

[BuckyTuba]

Why don't you nerds back it up to the statistical analysis board?

 

Great stuff as usual. Some of the numbers are projecting a little low (braun/fielder) but it's interesting to see them predict Capuano making a solid turnaround.

[pete]

Didn't Felix Pie bat something like .215 in the majors and .350 at Iowa? I wonder how that leads to a projection of .289? Averaging?

 

Lee is a year post wrist injury. I wonder what the algorithm is for that.

[pete]

Didn't Felix Pie bat something like .215 in the majors and .350 at Iowa? I wonder how that leads to a projection of .289? Averaging?

 

Lee is a year post wrist injury. I wonder what the algorithm is for that.

[pete]

Didn't Felix Pie bat something like .215 in the majors and .350 at Iowa? I wonder how that leads to a projection of .289? Averaging?

 

Lee is a year post wrist injury. I wonder what the algorithm is for that.

[TooLiveBrew]

With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).

[TooLiveBrew]

With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).

[TooLiveBrew]

With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).

[MJLiverock]

I too was a little surprised that Pie is expected to SLG for more than Weeks.

[MJLiverock]

I too was a little surprised that Pie is expected to SLG for more than Weeks.

[MJLiverock]

I too was a little surprised that Pie is expected to SLG for more than Weeks.

[TooLiveBrew]

Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.

[TooLiveBrew]

Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.