Feinsand: Milwaukee Brewers Should Be “Aggressive” at Deadline

I keep hearing things like this, online and from my friends. I don't really agree. The fact is that on paper the Brewers are still a valley away from LAD when it comes to starpower. Sending off our best assets, who are kids on the farm, for a rentals or one single veteran, is just not something that I think does anything to combat what LAD is.  Let's say we landed Jose Ramirez tomorrow, it wouldn't make anybody say we're the favorite against the Dodgers. I don't think Skubal does that for them either.

I think we're better off on the boring path, continuing to draft, develop, and be there every year, knowing that eventually, either LA goes cold and loses before we even play them, or it happens when they play us. That's really it for me. We just can't afford to trade our kids. Yes even if there's an alleged logjam at a position, we don't actually know who pans out at the MLB level. I just don't see the appeal of doing it when we're incredibly successful doing it our way.

To get any of M. Miller, J. Wood, and maybe even R. Detmers, C. Abrams or E. Perez they’d likely have to send back Made. They won’t do that. To get any of Skubal, J. Soriano, Peralta, Mize, maybe J. Ryan, and others you could likely get away with L. Pena or a slightly lesser prospect as the headliner.

My pipe dream was Aroldis Chapman as he wouldn’t have cost Made but now that the Red Sox are contending they won’t trade him.

I think they add a mid tier starter, a nice bullpen arm, and that’s it. They just don’t mortgage the future and send out their best prospect. I think we see maybe 2-3 of our top 10 prospects traded but maybe only 1 of the top 6-7 and then a couple others below that. Jett’s injury takes him off the block. I think they trade one of Fischer and Burke as they are both lefty 1B at the MLB level. They will need one next year with Bauers likely gone but don’t need both. Made will be at 3B next year so Fischer wouldn’t be there and likely then limited to 1B. L. Adams could to be dealt this week assuming they plan to bring back Vaughn next year. Quero could be traded if they plan to bring back Bill next year as they also have Dinges. One of the OFers at single A Wilson likely to be dealt imo as they have 4 talented guys pushing for PT there now (Frias, Antunez, Encarnacion, J. Anderson)

I could see them selling high on Joey’s recent success and including him in a swap for a 3B but the infield market is pretty barren for impact players so they might keep the offense as is. Abrams has never played 3B, it wouldn’t be an easy transition, and he already plays bad SS defense. Could DH some I suppose. Joey’s defense is invaluable so they might just see it worth it to keep him as the 3B starter. Maybe can add an OF if Sal’s injury will keep him out through August.

Curious to see what the consensus on this one is:

if you could trade Luis Pena for Mason Miller straight up, would you do it?

It’s not Devries, but they’re not going to get a Devries. 

Anyway I am in the camp that doubts that we will make a big “splash” move, but I would be surprised not to see some thorn before the deadline. Usually bullpen help. 

2 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Curious to see what the consensus on this one is:

if you could trade Luis Pena for Mason Miller straight up, would you do it?

It’s not Devries, but they’re not going to get a Devries. 

Anyway I am in the camp that doubts that we will make a big “splash” move, but I would be surprised not to see some thorn before the deadline. Usually bullpen help. 

Absolutely. No question. But they would want Made so won’t happen

I dont see how a RH bat moves the needle on this lineup. They currently have Chourio/Contreras/Vaughn/Lara/Pratt/Ortiz/Sanchez.. They can add Adams if they really are desperate to add a little pop. They arent going to remove Yelich, so where does the RH bat play on a team that prizes speed and defense? 

A TOR pitcher puts them in contention in a reduced-load playoff schedule. Miz can shut down teams. Harrison isnt far behind if he is healthy. Add one more and that's tough for an opponent to get past. Sproat goes to the pen where he can throw his best stuff.

Also, the brewers are lopsided right now with positional depth in the upper minors and some guys need to be moved soon anyways.

I don't understand how people keep saying the Brewers would need to trade Made to get one of these upper-level guys. I mean, when was the last time the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball was actually dealt?

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't understand how people keep saying the Brewers would need to trade Made to get one of these upper-level guys. I mean, when was the last time the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball was actually dealt?

Right, some of these guys like Skubal are already a sunk cost and have to be moved. Its not like they can call up the dodgers and demand Made also. They have other great pieces to offer.

Something I think that tends to get overlooked from the camp that just wants to keep all of our guys:

When you trade prospects for a player or player(s), that value isn’t just gone forever. If the player is truly valuable, you’ll be able to recoup value later on him, and until then, you’ll get the production from that player to help you win now. It’s essentially what the Padres may in fact be doing with Miller. They did overpay for him, but if the Padres want to get some strong value back for Miller now, they’re going to get it. Yes, you may have to take a haircut on the original value because of less control, but in some cases the production still makes the player an elite trade asset.

Look at all the guys we have given up value for that maybe we didn’t like at the time — Josh Hader and Caleb Durbin, for example, only to recoup value for the players in later trades.

Just now, wibadgers23 said:

Really good question. That's a tough one. It would hurt but I'd probably do it. Since Miller has multiple years of team control, we could turn around and flip him later on down the road and recoup some prospect capital.

Great point and I actually just wrote a too long tangent about this in my previous post.

5 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't understand how people keep saying the Brewers would need to trade Made to get one of these upper-level guys. I mean, when was the last time the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball was actually dealt?

I mean, Devries wasn’t the consensus #1 but I think he was 2 or 3, he’s 2 now if I’m not mistaken. And those top few are essentially just pick your subjective favorite - you could make just as strong of a case right now for Devries as you can for Made. 

2 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean, Devries wasn’t the consensus #1 but I think he was 2 or 3, he’s 2 now if I’m not mistaken. And those top few are essentially just pick your subjective favorite - you could make just as strong of a case right now for Devries as you can for Made. 

Yes, and Devries netted Miller with an extra year of control. Miller sure as heck isn't going to net Made now.

12 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't understand how people keep saying the Brewers would need to trade Made to get one of these upper-level guys. I mean, when was the last time the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball was actually dealt?

Skubal is the only “top guy” who’s on an expiring contract so wouldn’t cost Made especially since Tigers have no leverage left. But guys like Miller, J. Wood, etc have no reason to be traded by their teams yet with their control remaining. So they can be stingy

IF we think we can get this team to the playoffs without Miz's and Harrison's arms falling off... I'm starting to come around to the idea of going all in on Skubal. The one thing that can close the gap between the Brewers and anyone else in the league (including the Dodgers) is starting pitching. The thought of possibly having Miz, Skubal, and Harrison available to pitch 6 games in a 7 games series, with Henderson taking the other game, makes me feel like this team could actually beat anyone.

I’d be confident if Brewers refused to offer anything more than Pena plus 2 other lower ranked guys they would get outbid by someone for Miller. So if they truly want him I think they’d probably have to send Made.

2 minutes ago, JoeyWiemerTruther said:

Skubal is the only “top guy” who’s on an expiring contract so wouldn’t cost Made especially since Tigers have no leverage left. But guys like Miller, J. Wood, etc have no reason to be traded by their teams yet with their control remaining. So they can be stingy

I'd be very surprised if Wood is even available. And as alluded to above, Made isn't getting dealt for Miller.

Personally I’d be fine with being cheaper and trading for a mid tier starter such as Mize, Soriano, Gausman, Ray, etc and a nice bullpen arm (but not any of Miller, Chapman or Hader). I don’t think even adding 2 guys like Miller and James Wood would get them over the Dodgers hump still personally.

3 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

That's not how trading works. Teams want the best return for their players. Other teams still have to make a better offer than what the Brewers offer them even without Made being a part of it.

If you buy something for $100 at Walmart they aren't going to refuse to sell to you just because you want to pay with 100 George Washingtons instead of one Benjamin Franklin.

Yes but I’d be confident someone would have a better offer than Luis Pena 1 for 1 swap. So once they start having to outbid others and Made becomes a requirement that’s where Padres lose me. But if the requirement to get him was for sure nothing more than Pena plus 2 lower level guys I am sprinting to the phone.

3 minutes ago, JoeyWiemerTruther said:

Yes but I’d be confident someone would have a better offer than Luis Pena 1 for 1 swap. So once they start having to outbid others and Made becomes a requirement that’s where Padres lose me. But if the requirement to get him was for sure nothing more than Pena plus 2 lower level guys I am sprinting to the phone.

Luis Pena is 19 years old, and is currently ranked as MLB Pipeline's #18 prospect in all of baseball. This "nothing more" and "sprinting to the phone" talk reeks of hyperbole. There simply isn't a ton that separate Made and Pena prospect-wise. I certainly hope that Matt Arnold is a little more hesitant to trade him than you seem to be. 

1 minute ago, JoeyWiemerTruther said:

Yes but I’d be confident someone would have a better offer than Luis Pena 1 for 1 swap. So once they start having to outbid others and Made becomes a requirement that’s where Padres lose me. But if the requirement to get him was for sure nothing more than Pena plus 2 lower level guys I am sprinting to the phone.

No they wouldn't. It's also important to understand prospect value isn't linear, it's exponential. Made as a FV 65 prospect on Fangraphs has an estimated value of $95 million. Pena at FV 55 is valued at $55 million. Pena alone is huge overpay but maybe required. Using Fangraphs, which doesn't have MLB.com's overgrading issue, they are only 29 prospects with an FV 55 or higher. Yes the Dodgers and the Rays could match Pena, but would they?