Brewer Fanatic 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects - No. 8: Logan Henderson

#8 Logan Henderson (Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Biloxi Shuckers, Nashville Sounds)

Henderson was the Brewer's fourth-round selection in 2021, out of McLennan Community College in Texas, making him yet another in the long line of Junior/Community College arms to come through the Brewers system. After battling injuries for most of his first year and a half in pro ball, Henderson made 18 starts in 2023, all of which came with Low-A Carolina. He posted really strong numbers, but he was more advanced than the hitters he was facing. After injuring his oblique during the “Spring Breakout” game, he started his season late in 2024, making his first non-rehab appearance on May 24th. While he started late, he did not start slow. He quickly climbed his way from High-A to Double-A and then eventually made it all the way to Triple-A by the end of the season.

Henderson has an interesting setup on the mound, starting hunched over, with his front foot stepping towards first base, similar to a hitter with an open stance. Most pitchers start closed off rather than open, as there isn’t really any mechanical reason to start open. It’s likely a matter of comfort for Henderson and potentially a means to help him hold baserunners.

What to Like:
Henderson showed some gains in his fastball velocity this year, especially early in the season. Previously, sitting in the low-90s the vast majority of the time, Henderson showed flashes of 95-96 MPH, with a bit more regularity in 2024. By the time he reached Triple-A, the fastball only averaged 92.5 MPH, but that was at the end of a hectic season. While the jump in velocity is good to see, velocity is never what has made his fastball a plus pitch. All of the other characteristics make it such a strong offering.

The average release height in MLB is slightly over six feet. Henderson releases his pitches from right around five feet. This helps him create an angle on all his pitches, especially his fastball, that can play tricks on the hitter’s eyes. For his fastball, this helps him create an elite -4.1 degree Vertical Approach Angle (VAA), which means it plays exceptionally well at the top of the zone. Henderson has the rare combination of an elite VAA and above-average Induced Vertical Break, of which he generated 17.6” on average. The velocity, shape, and movement all compare favorably to Cristian Javier of the Astros, who has seen a lot of success in using the fastball.

The fastball isn’t the only pitch that grades out as a plus in Henderson’s repertoire. His changeup does as well. He takes over 11 MPH off the fastball on average, averaging around 18 inches of arm-side movement. Per Baseball America, he had a 44% CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs Rate) against it in 2024, which would have led MLB for changeups, though it should be noted that it was much lower in his small Triple-A sample, down to 25.6%. 

Henderson showed he could command the fastball and changeup at a high level and did a great job limiting walks all season long, as evidenced by his 97th-percentile walk rate of 4.8% in 2024.

What to Work On:
While Henderson’s fastball and changeup are both plus pitches, the rest of his repertoire grades out much worse. He added a cutter this past offseason, and it showed some signs of being a fringe-average pitch in the future. It is at least a pitch he can throw at hitters to keep them honest, but the hope is that he can make it more than that at some point. He only used the cutter 3% of the time on the season as a whole, but once he got to Triple-A, that usage went up to 12.1%. Perhaps a sign of the Brewers plans for this pitch mix if/when he does make it to MLB.

Henderson’s slider also grades out poorly, but it showed some signs of improvement early in the season. He used it less and less as the season progressed, and only threw one slider while he was in Nashville. It seems like a pitch he currently lacks confidence in, but it’s arguably the pitch that would help his repertoire the most. Even just a fringe-average slider could give hitters a lot more to think about at the plate, as they would need to cover a lot more of the plate than they do currently.

The one thing Henderson struggled with statistically in 2024 was with giving up too many home runs. He is a flyball pitcher due to the shape of the fastball he throws, as well as the location of where he throws them, so home runs will always be part of the equation for him. That said, the 1.44 Home Runs per Nine he allowed were in the eighth-percentile in 2024. His 12.9% Home Run per Fly Ball rate wasn’t a complete outlier, but it was still a bit higher than you’d expect it to be in the future. That could help the problem on its own, but avoiding mistakes low in the zone would also help Henderson avoid the long ball more consistently moving forward.

What’s next:
Henderson has a lot of similarities to a former Brewers pitcher, Marco Estrada. The fastball/changeup combination allowed Estrada to have a really strong prime of his career, even making an All Star appearance for the Blue Jays. That combination does require the command to be very consistently strong though, otherwise the profile starts to look similar to another former Brewer in Ethan Small. The margin for error is slim with a mix like Henderson's, which is why continued improvement in his slider or cutter would go a long way toward giving hitters more to worry about at the plate. Henderson is Rule 5 eligible this offseason, and will almost certainly be protected. Assuming he is protected, he will begin back in Nashville to start 2025, where he will be one of the players most likely to make their MLB debut for the Brewers next year.

What are your thoughts on Henderson? What are you hoping to see from him in 2025? Let us know in the comments!

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