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    Caution Lights for Top Brewers Prospects - Part 2


    Harold Hutchison

    We’re continuing our look at what might be called “caution lights” for the Brewer Fanatic Top 20 list. Discussing these is not saying these players are going to fail to make the majors, but it is something to keep an eye on, and hope for the players to improve over the 2023 season and beyond.

    Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

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    We covered the top ten in the first part; here are the rest of the top 20.

    OF Luis Lara – Power

    Luis Lara was given an aggressive promotion to full-season Class-A Carolina, and he’s hitting for average, providing excellent defense, and has walked many more times than he’s struck out (16 walks to 10 strikeouts in 82 at-bats). But the power deficiency (two doubles, one home run) will be a concern going forward. While Mike Felder had a good career, even he could hit one out of the park.

    RHP Justin Jarvis – Walks/How Long Can He Go?

    Justin Jarvis is having a bit of a breakout since arriving in Biloxi late last year, posting a 2.67 ERA. However, he still gives up four walks per nine innings, and he is averaging less than six innings a start. If he can lower the walks and get through the sixth inning more, he’ll be an asset. Otherwise, the team may need someone to piggyback with him.

    OF Hendry Mendez – Injury/Power

    Mendez has shown great OBP skills, but he hasn’t displayed the power one would expect or need from a corner outfielder. In addition, he’s only played in eight games this year, due to an injury. Mendez has the OBP skills to be a very dangerous hitter at American Family Field, but he has to be on the field to be valuable, and he has to adjust his swing.

    LHP Ethan Small – Walks

    Ethan Small has done reasonably well since moving to the bullpen. However, the walks are still high. He did avoid some walks during the 15-1 loss to the Giants that had a very scary moment involving Willy Adames, but he needs to keep them down more consistently if he wants to have a shot at a late-inning, high-leverage role.

    SS Freddy Zamora – Injuries/Power

    Zamora missed a lot of time in 2020 and 2022 with injuries. Other than that, he’s delivered at the plate and on defense. With Adames slated to become a free agent after 2024, Zamora could slot right in as a replacement. He has flashed some power, with 5 home runs in 117 at-bats so far this year, as opposed to 6 in 347 in 2021. But he has to stay healthy to deliver.

    C Matthew Wood – How Fast Can He Move Up?/Full-Season Stamina

    Wood is already showing a lot of good signs. He draws walks, has some pop, and forced a promotion from Carolina to Wisconsin in May. His continued rapid rise could be crucial, as Milwaukee needs a replacement for Victor Caratini. His ability to hold up for a full season is also going to be tested, and could determine his fate. So far, so good.

    3B/1B Luke Adams – Defensive Home/Hitting for Average

    Luke Adams is a physical specimen, but so far in Carolina, his batting average is below the Uecker line. While he’s drawing a lot of walks, he’s also striking out a lot. In addition, where does he play? Is he a third baseman? Is he in the outfield? Does he play first base? Inquiring minds want to know.

    RHP Alexander Cornielle – Hits Allowed

    Cornielle looked like he was a potential breakout, but results so far in 2023 have been rough, to say the least. He’s allowing more than one hit per inning, and that’s a good way to give up runs and not go deep into games–he’s averaging less than five innings per start.

    IF Rob Moore – Batting Average

    Moore dominated in Brisbane over the winter, but in Wisconsin, he’s had a sub-Uecker line batting average. The OBP skills are there, and Moore is rapping a lot of extra-base hits. Moore can turn things around, but the middle infield is crowded in the Brewers farm system.

    RHP Stiven Cruz – Hits/Walks

    Like Cornielle, Cruz seemed like he would have a huge season in 2023. However, everything seems to be going the wrong way. He’s walked 18 in 34.2 innings, compared to 24 walks in 91.1 innings pitched in 2022. He’s also averaging more than one hit allowed per inning, and less than four innings per start. Cruz is young, but will need to turn things around.

     


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    Given his age and power profile, Adams’ K rate is fine. His swinging strike rate is similar to contact guys like Areinamo and Guilarte and just a bit behind Lara.

    His average is low because of an absurdly low BABIP. I don’t know how much is bad luck and how much is his fly-ball profile, but his K rate isn’t that concerning to me at this point.



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