Brace for Impact - Jackson Chourio is Ready

While I agree with most of this article, I think it still sells Chourio a little short in terms of the helium he's earned with his performance the last two years in the minors as a kid.  The Brewers haven't had a prospect of Chourio's caliber at his age since perhaps Robin Yount - and Yount barely spent any time in the minors, winding up in the majors the year after he was drafted as a 17 yr old, primarily because he was already a really solid defensive shortstop. 

The article also doesn't mention one of Chourio's best tools that benefits him both offensively and defensively - speed.  He's a legit 40-50 stolen base threat to couple with elite bat to ball skills with plenty of pop for a guy his size.  His one offensive tool that needs further development to avoid being exposed at the major league level is taking walks when he's being pitched around and limiting bad balls he swings at.  The OBP sitting 50-60 points above his BA is ok, and Chourio will likely always be a more aggressive hitter in the batter's box, but I'd like to see a hitter of his caliber get that OBP up closer to 80-100 points above his BA with better plate discipline.  A walk for Chourio could frequently turn into a double a couple pitches later with a SB.

The comps Chourio has with  the mix of production, minor league levels, and age are truly unicorn-like.

Chourio is a top prospect but I don't anticipate that he will be starting the season with the Brewers for two reasons:

1. Player clock management:  The Brewers get Chourio under team control for six years.  They want to have those be the most productive years possible.  There is no reason to rush him to the majors before they are sure he can be very productive.  Chourio had a good but not great minor league season at AA. (.280 .336 .467 .803) which he has followed up with a very good season of winter ball.  He has 24 plate appearances at AAA.  The Brewers call up Chourio when they have confidence that he can give them a .900 OPS at the MLB level or he has nothing left to learn in the minors.  He hasn't reached either of these yet.  

2. The outfield is crowded and the Brewers need some time to figure things out.  Spring training may be helpful, but the Brewers may still be using April and May to figure out who is a keeper between Mitchell, Frelich, Weimer and Taylor.  Chourio comes up when the Brewers are ready to pencil him into the line up ever day and he will significantly out produce the players he is replacing.  They don't really know what they have in the three rookies and may wonder if Taylor's hot September is an omen of things to come.  Out of that competition among last year's rookies and Taylor, the Brewers hope to find two players that OPS above .750.  They need to give at bats to see who amongst the other outfielders can hit.  

Chourio hype is a lot of fun.  But he has yet to prove he is elite in any league and won't be starting 2024 with the Brewers.  

9 minutes ago, Bashopolis said:

Chourio hype is a lot of fun.  But he has yet to prove he is elite in any league

I'd say he's proven to be elite in just about every league he's played in...which is all the more impressive given his age. 

The reason he may not be up is that they really get close to 7 years of service time out of a player and if they wait 2 months, they can keep him up all year, and then have 6 more seasons.

I'm hoping they approach him as the Rays did Franco(despite how that turned out) or the Braves Acuna Jr/Albies...every other star they have) and lock him into a long-term contract early. I think he's proven he's a rare talent and even if he falls short of being that truly elite bat, he's gonna hit for power, he's got incredible speed and he can play elite defense. If you're gonna roll the dice on a player, it's him. 

Not a Hiura/Weeks, even a Prince. Basically a player who's entire value lies in their ability to hit. But if he DOES reach his ceiling as a hitter, he's going to price himself out of Milwaukee VERY quickly as Soto did in Washington. 

36 minutes ago, Bashopolis said:

Chourio is a top prospect but I don't anticipate that he will be starting the season with the Brewers for two reasons:

 

1. Player clock management:  The Brewers get Chourio under team control for six years.  They want to have those be the most productive years possible.  There is no reason to rush him to the majors before they are sure he can be very productive.  Chourio had a good but not great minor league season at AA. (.280 .336 .467 .803) which he has followed up with a very good season of winter ball.  He has 24 plate appearances at AAA.  The Brewers call up Chourio when they have confidence that he can give them a .900 OPS at the MLB level or he has nothing left to learn in the minors.  He hasn't reached either of these yet.  

2. The outfield is crowded and the Brewers need some time to figure things out.  Spring training may be helpful, but the Brewers may still be using April and May to figure out who is a keeper between Mitchell, Frelich, Weimer and Taylor.  Chourio comes up when the Brewers are ready to pencil him into the line up ever day and he will significantly out produce the players he is replacing.  They don't really know what they have in the three rookies and may wonder if Taylor's hot September is an omen of things to come.  Out of that competition among last year's rookies and Taylor, the Brewers hope to find two players that OPS above .750.  They need to give at bats to see who amongst the other outfielders can hit.  

Chourio hype is a lot of fun.  But he has yet to prove he is elite in any league and won't be starting 2024 with the Brewers.  

Chourio’s improvement post-tacky balls  was quite impressive, outside of a small hiccup when he injured his hand/thumb and took a bit to get going again.

He literally destroyed winter-league pitching, of which has been compared to AAA pitching so since July of ‘23 he has been elite.

Maybe the team will manipulate his ST?, but maybe the team has decided they’ve seen enough and want him to impact the big-club OD and figure they can extend him to make the service-time moot. 

Chourio can also be good enough to win the ROY without being rostered OD and if that happens he gets a full year of service anyhow. 

33 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'd say he's proven to be elite in just about every league he's played in...which is all the more impressive given his age. 

In 2023 in the Southern League Chourio had the 16th highest OPS.  In 2022 in the A+ Midwest League his OPS was 37th.  He was elite at A level that year before the promotion to A+.  

It would be good to see Chourio be one of the top ten hitters at AAA for a couple of months before he makes the big jump to MLB at his age.   

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

 

Using Jackson's full season stats for AA is probably selling him a little short considering the tacky balls used at the start of the season, that any 19 year old will likely struggle upon initial exposure to AA, and that he made such a remarkable turnaround as the season wore on. 

Actually Chourio had a red hot July ( .388, .447 , .718 and 1.164) and then a fairly pedestrian August  .266, .303, .415 and .718.  

This isn't unusual for a young player.  But it is perhaps another reason the Brewers may wait a little bit for him to demonstrate an ability to sustain success over more of the season in the upper minors prior to a call up to the show. 

1 minute ago, Bashopolis said:

Actually Chourio had a red hot July ( .388, .447 , .718 and 1.164) and then a fairly pedestrian August  .266, .303, .415 and .718.  

This isn't unusual for a young player.  But it is perhaps another reason the Brewers may wait a little bit for him to demonstrate an ability to sustain success over more of the season in the upper minors prior to a call up to the show. 

 

His hand/thumb injury might had something to do with his mini-slump in August. It seemed to take a bit of time to shake the rust-off.

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

This is my opinion as well. I just don't see any reason to rush him. He's too valuable. I also worry that fans will be disappointed by a couple of pedestrian seasons. I'm not predicting this, but it's entirely possible that he ends up being a good, not great, hitter, fielder, and baserunner.

Spencer Torkleson was one of the most sure-fire hitting prospects in a long time, and his first two seasons in MLB featured wRC+ of 75 and 107. I'm not sure that was the best use of 2 years of service time.

Sure worked for the Mariners and Dbacks, though just the last two seasons...If Brewers extend Chourio as they should and as those teams did, then any service time considerations become irrelevant. 

Torkelson isn't really comparable as a prospect to Chourio as he's a college player who provides almost no value apart from his bat. Chourio is 19 and improving rapidly. 

Chourio, since July 14, 2023 (including winter ball, which is effectively AAA pitching): 74 games, 336 PAs .335/.395/.536/.931, 8.6 BB%, 12.7 K%. That's pure domination. I couldn't care less what he did before that under a tacked ball he won't see in the majors at the same age as a college freshman. 

Not sure what else you need to see if he proves he's indeed up to it in ST. I'm not opposed to him spending more time in the minors. But I'm also not holding him down until he clears some arbitrary OPS threshold. We'll have a much clearer picture come late March, but the Chourio I watched in Venezuela this past month was ready for major league at-bats right now.

FWIW, for the OP, he was literally a top 5 hitter in that league in which he's more than 9 years younger than the league average. 

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Sure worked for the Mariners and Dbacks, though just the last two seasons...If Brewers extend Chourio as they should and as those teams did, then any service time considerations become irrelevant. 

Torkelson isn't really comparable as a prospect to Chourio as he's a college player who provides almost no value apart from his bat. Chourio is 19 and improving rapidly. 

Right...really the only reason to not break camp with him is the service time. Gain that extra year. And I think that's a significant motivator to get a deal done. If he won't be a FA for 7 years...well, then a 10-year deal and guaranteeing 9 figures makes a lot more sense. I don't know how you come to an agreement on the number though. Especially with Acuna Jr, who'd be in a contract year, now locked up, and that deal looking bad. You're probably not getting Chourio done for 8 years, 90M and two option years at 17M per with a 10M buyout?

So I'd guess 8/120 and a couple option years at 20M with 10M buyouts? GTD 130M then? 

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

This is my opinion as well. I just don't see any reason to rush him. He's too valuable. I also worry that fans will be disappointed by a couple of pedestrian seasons. I'm not predicting this, but it's entirely possible that he ends up being a good, not great, hitter, fielder, and baserunner.

Spencer Torkleson was one of the most sure-fire hitting prospects in a long time, and his first two seasons in MLB featured wRC+ of 75 and 107. I'm not sure that was the best use of 2 years of service time.

I don't see why he wouldn't be a great defender and or base runner. He has been great, he's gotten better as he's progressed. He was better in CF last year than the year prior.

And as mentioned, Spencer Torkleson was a 1B/DH whose only value is in his bat. Chourio should have little trouble surpassing .8 WAR just with his legs and glove. If he's a .240 hitter or a .280+ hitter will determine if he's a MVP-caliber player or just a good player, but he's got a high floor just due to his athletic profile.

And finally, I've become pretty indifferent about what "the fans" will do if he isn't a superstar right out of the gate. It's a given the fans, the ones who hear we've got this good prospect, but are more casual fans-(not an insult, just a reality, people have lives and other hobbies) -their support ebbs and flows. It's fickle. The more diehard fans should understand a 20-year-old isn't expected to come up and dominate.