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  • Nygaard Final Mock v. 3.0


    Jeremy Nygaard

    My final attempt at how the first 30 picks will play out. There’s been a lot out there. How much is completely bogus? How much is credible? Who knows!? 

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    This is how I think the first round will play out. Not how I would pick for each team. 

    1.) Pirates – Max Clark, OF, Indiana prep - I wouldn’t take Clark one. I wouldn’t take him second or third either. And maybe not fourth. But I’m not faced with screwing up having a ton of money in a loaded draft. Clark - in a normal year - is a legitimate contender to go 1-1. This year, there are three college players who are simply better options, but the Pirates can’t mess this up and decide to take a really good prospect while also allowing them to take more really good prospects later. 

    Previous: Dylan Crews

    2.) Nationals – Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU - Having to choose between Skenes and Dylan Crews is like the Nationals having to decide between Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. (They paid Strasburg, not Harper.) Either pick would be a great pick, so the Nationals are going to be winners of this draft either way.

    Previous: no change

    3.) Tigers – Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida - It would be easy to switch this to Dylan Crews, but I think the Tigers have been focused on Langford for a while now and won’t have to blow up their pool to get him. 

    Previous: Wyatt Langford

    4.) Rangers - Dylan Crews, OF, LSU - Yes, the Rangers have a pool of less than $10 million. Yes, there’s a rumor out there that Boras wants $10 million for Crews. But, yes, Scott Boras also brokered huge deals between the Rangers and Corey Seager and Marcus Semien recently and may be doing work behind the scenes to get Crews to the biggest market possible while also convincing the Rangers to spend big on his client. The $10 rumor may just be a tactical move to get exactly what Scott Boras wants.

    Previous: Dylan Crews

    5.) Twins – Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi - I’m believing the smoke here. (Or at least convincing myself to believe the smoke to prepare myself for the disappointment.) I usually give myself more time in between my 10-round Twins mock and my final mock than 24. But I’m going to stick with it. I also believe that the Twins will use their savings to get Noble Meyer to fall to their next pick.

    Previous: Kyle Teel

    6.) A’s – Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU - It’s too early to take Taylor, Matt Shaw or Jacob Wilson in my opinion, but the A’s make bad decisions.

    Previous: Jacob Wilson

    7.) Reds – Walker Jenkins, OF, North Carolina prep - Cincinnati will end Jenkins slide like they ended Cam Collier’s last year.

    Previous: Rhett Lowder

    8.) Royals - Kyle Teel, C, Virginia - This seems to be a common fit. Perez can’t play forever - though he may try - and Teel will be a solid regular for many years.

    Previous: Thomas White

    9.) Rockies - Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest - I haven’t changed this description for any mock:  The best chance for the Rockies to add pitching is through the draft. Their board should go Skenes, Lowder, Waldrep, Dollander, Floyd… and they take the first one available.

    Previous: Hurston Waldrep

    10.) Marlins – Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt - Bradfield is going to have a team that believes in his bat and loves his speed and defense so much he will go higher than we see him in most mock drafts. Stealing bases is cool again.

    Previous: Max Clark

    11.) Angels – Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic - When the biggest names in the media start to agree on every part of a team’s strategy, there’s got to be a reason for it. Schanuel has one of the most impactful bats in the draft class.

    Previous: Jacob Gonzalez

    12.) Diamondbacks – Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee - Who knows where Dollander ends up. He could be the second pitcher off the board. He could be the 6th or 7th if prep pitchers start to go. His stuff is off the charts… he just couldn’t put it all together this season.

    Previous: no change

    13.) Cubs – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Florida prep - This is a fit that continues to make too much sense for me. I think Nimmala could end up being the steal of the draft.

    Previous: no change

    14.) Red Sox – Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland - There’s going to be a run on infielders in the middle of the first round and it’s going to be heavy with college guys. 

    Previous: no change

    15.) White Sox – Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida - The White Sox are another team that I feel like needs to shoot their shot on pitchers. Waldrep dropping to the middle of the first round would be a revelation for them.

    Previous: Tommy Troy

    16.) Giants – Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford - Seems like a good fit to go relatively local and in a spot that makes a lot of sense.

    Previous: Enrique Bradfield Jr

    17.) Orioles – Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon - This is the Orioles favorite demographic in the first round and Wilson should go in this range.

    Previous: Colin Houck

    18.) Brewers - Chase Davis, OF, Arizona - The Brewers have gone the college route a lot recently and Davis is probably underappreciated for the type of year he had and the data that he put up.

    Previous: Brayden Taylor

    19.) Rays – Aidan Miller, 3B, Florida prep - The opportunistic Rays have a prospect who was injured and missed the majority of his senior season fall into their laps. 

    Previous: Noble Meyer

    20.) Blue Jays – Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami.

    Previous: Chase Davis

    21.) Cardinals – Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU. 

    Previous: Aidan Miller

    22.) Mariners – Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

    Previous: Nolan Schanuel
     
    23.) Guardians – Colt Emerson, SS, Ohio prep

    Previous: no change

    24.) Braves – Colin Houck, SS, Georgia prep

    Previous: Dillon Head

    25.) Padres - Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Virginia prep

    Previous: no change

    26.) Yankees – Sammy Stafura, SS, New York prep

    Previous: no change

    27.) Phillies – Charlee Soto, RHP, Florida prep

    Previous: no change

    28.) Astros - Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech

    Previous: no change

    29.) Mariners – Blake Mitchell, C, Texas prep

    Previous: no change

    30.) Mariners – Thomas White, LHP, Massachusetts prep

    Previous: Kevin McGonigle
     

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    I’d be happy with Davis.  I agree with your comment about him being underappreciated.  I don’t know if they go for him though.  

    I do think one of the second basemen could be the choice here like Shaw or Troy.  They could rise quickly and be at second here soon.

    I like Aidan Miller even if it will cost extra money but I just don’t see him fitting the Brewer profile.  A really smart team like Tampa or the Dodgers will no doubt jump on him.   

     

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    2 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

    I’d be happy with Davis.  I agree with your comment about him being underappreciated.  I don’t know if they go for him though.  

    I do think one of the second basemen could be the choice here like Shaw or Troy.  They could rise quickly and be at second here soon.

    I like Aidan Miller even if it will cost extra money but I just don’t see him fitting the Brewer profile.  A really smart team like Tampa or the Dodgers will no doubt jump on him.   

     

    I'm not discounting Miller, if only because the Brewers have shown a willingness recently to grab guys who for whatever reason fell much lower than they were projected to go a year out, Miller would fit the bill.

    I feel like, outside of the top 5 guys, so much seems up in the air. I have a feeling the other three top college pitchers and Teel are off the board by the time that the Brewers pick, but I don't know that there is another player in that tier that I'd by shocked if they got to the Brewers. There are a number of guys that have been mocked anywhere from top 10 to mid-20s, and not necessarily as below-slot options.

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    I watch very little college baseball and obviously havent seen the high school players in action so my hope is that this team focuses on high upside pitching and projectable bats instead of focusing on up the middle athletes that can't hit. Its a real shame that this team hasn't produced a big time hitter since Ryan Braun and its time that we focus on better hitters instead of positional flexibility.

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    I also will never argue against drafting pitching especially if the guy projects to be a starter and not a reliever and has plus stuff.

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    21 hours ago, brewers888 said:

    I watch very little college baseball and obviously havent seen the high school players in action so my hope is that this team focuses on high upside pitching and projectable bats instead of focusing on up the middle athletes that can't hit. Its a real shame that this team hasn't produced a big time hitter since Ryan Braun and its time that we focus on better hitters instead of positional flexibility.

    Totally agree ! Don't watch any CB !But what I do watch is the brewers , and we haven't had home grown corner infielders in ages . we have enough Of'ers  in our system or so it seems. If we don't do it in the first ( best player avail ) it has to be a priority in the later rounds!

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    23 hours ago, brewers888 said:

    this team hasn't produced a big time hitter since Ryan Braun and its time that we focus on better hitters instead of positional flexibility.

    From 2012-16 Lucroy put up a 120 wRC+ and 55.8 batting runs, both of which were second only to Buster among catchers during that time.

    If Braun is the standard, he had 47 career WAR. Here are first round hitters drafted since 2006 to come close to or exceed that total…

    2006: Longoria (drafted 3rd, MIL #16)
    2007: Donaldson (drafted 48th, MIL took LaPorta #7)
    2008: Buster (drafted 5th, MIL #16)
    2009: Trout (drafted 25th, MIL #26)
    2010: Machado/Harper (drafted 3/1, MIL #14)
    2011: Lindor (drafted 8th, MIL #12)
    2012: Correa (drafted 1st, MIL #28)
    2013: Judge (drafted 32nd, MIL no 1st round pick)

    So only nine teams have drafted a Braun quality hitter in the first round since 2006 and eight of those were off the board before the Brewers picked.

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    Actually super thankful the Pirates drafted Skenes. SP in division might only hurt us 2-3 times a year. An OF could hurt us 10 times a year.

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