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    After A Rocky April, Can The Brewers Avoid Worst-Case Scenarios?


    Harold Hutchison

    A 2-5 start to their end-of-April road trip has the Brewers under .500 and looking up at two teams in the NL Central. This isn't the starts fan were hoping for.

    Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

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    It's easy to attribute the Brewers' relatively slow start to the team's struggles on the road. Through the first 29 games of the season, the Crew are 9-4 at home against just 5-11 on the road. The whole team seems to just play better in the confines of American Family Field.

    Before the season, we covered best- and worst-case scenarios for each position on the Brewers. How are each of those cases faring through the first month of the season?

    Catcher: So Far, So Good

    At this point, the Brewers can’t complain too much. William Contreras is holding down the bulk of the starts and Eric Haase is doing more than okay as a backup. The only bad news is Jeferson Quero’s hamstring troubles, which have complicated his return from a lost 2024, and Darrien Miller’s slump in Biloxi.

    First Base: Better Than Hoped For

    Rhys Hoskins is posting a 137 OPS+ and providing a power bat to the lineup, partially making up for the loss of Willy Adams. This could be good if the Crew wants to flip him at the deadline. The Crew has also seen Ernesto Martinez perform very well at Triple-A Nashville.

    It's worth keeping an eye on Jake Bauer’s presence on the 26-man roster. Bauers is hitting well so far, but Tyler Black is nearing the end of the initial timeline given on his hamate injury.

    Second Base: Close To Best-Case

    Brice Turang is holding his own in the leadoff slot and hitting like he did in the first half of 2024. It’s an open question if he can keep it up, but to date, he is leading the league in hits. Peculiarly, he's had two errors already, though that probably isn't much to worry about for the reigning Gold Glover.

    Third Base: At Worst-Case

    Oliver Dunn and Vinny Capra have posted sub-.500 OPS totals at the hot corner for the Crew — Caleb Durbin’s .670 OPS looks Ruthian in comparison. The good news is Durbin has stuck out exactly once through his first 32 plate appearances. The bad news is his walk total is the same. The team may need to think about some options, but trading prospects for a veteran might be a bad way to go. Could it be a desperate enough situation for Tyler Black to man the hot corner when he is healthy?

    Shortstop: Teetering Close To Worst-Case

    Brewers fans hoped Joey Ortiz would take his offense up a level, or at least keep up his 2024 pace. Instead, his batting average is looking up at the Uecker line, his defense has dropped a notch, and he has one extra-base hit (a double). The only good news is he's working a very impressive walk rate.

    Left Field: Middle Case

    A lot has been made of Jackson Chourio struggling at the plate so far in 2025. The “struggling” phenom still is tied for the team lead in homers (five), second in RBIs (20 to Christian Yelich’s 21), has spanked another ten extra-base hits, and has a 108 OPS+. When a guy’s struggles still result in above-average offense, that says a lot of good things about him.

    Center Field: Heading For Worst Case?

    First, Blake Perkins injured his shin. Now, Garrett Mitchell was off to a cold start and left the April 25 game against the Cardinals with a left oblique issue, subseuqently resulting his placement on the 10-day IL. It's not that Sal Frelick or Jackson Chourio are horrible backup options, but the chain reaction of injuries could force the Brewers into sub-optimal choices for the corner outfield spots.

    Right Field: Best Case… But Trending Down

    Sal Frelick is arguably one of the hotter hitters on the Crew. The injury to Garrett Mitchell, combined with the move of Blake Perkins to the 60-day injured list, now has the Brewers on their third-string center fielder. Will it be Frelick, or is it Chourio?

    Designated Hitter: Almost The Best Case

    Christian Yelich is hitting close to his 2024 form. He’s also held down the bulk of the starts at the position. The bad news is that Yelich may have to see more time in the field due to the center field injury situation.

    Starting Rotation: Close To Best-Case Now, Worst-Case Scenario For The Future

    Yes, the Brewers are getting excellent performance from Chad Patrick, Jose Quintana, Freddy Peralta, and many of their starting pitchers. And while Quinn Priester is also performing well, the trade for him is exactly what the Brewers needed to avoid — they lost one top prospect and they lost their Competitive Balance A pick to get Priester. This is because of injuries to Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, and Nestor Cortes. Short-term, the team’s doing fine, but the injuries will likely cost the team down the road, both in terms of the Priester trade and the probable loss of “conditional” picks in the 2026 MLB draft.

    Bullpen: Closer To Best-Case Than Worst-Case

    The Brewers' bullpen has, for the most part, locked down leads when the team has been able to generate them. The big questions center around how the bullpen will shake out with the return of other pitchers (Brandon Woodruff, Civale, and Cortes), but for the most part, the Brewers have a lot of good options, even with Joel Payamps and Bryan Hudson struggling.

    Overview

    The 2025 Brewers have been inconsistent, to put it mildly. The team’s looking very solid in most places, with the biggest problem being the left side of their infield and their top two center fielders being injured. Worse, the rash of injuries in the starting rotation has a potential long-term cost of up to four prospects for the Brewers, a serious hit for a team in one of MLB’s smallest markets.

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    I understand the bullpen hasn't blown a ton of leads and a large part of their high ERA is guys getting hit when the game is pretty much over already, but I am somewhat worried about the pen as the year goes on. Murphy is going to throw Mears, Abner & Grant Andersons arm off by June at this rate. We need the Hudson/Payamps/Yoho now crew to start being reliable otherwise our high leverage guys are going to be overtaxed. It is hard to blame Murphy too much as certain guys just haven't been reliable enough for high leverage spots, but I am not sure what we are currently doing is sustainable. 

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    I think the future starting pitching grade is rather harsh as the lost prospect projection is a very unlikely outcome. It also ignores the young, controllable pitching that has performed well in the big leagues or on the cusp of the big leagues (Misiorowski)

    5 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

    Caleb Durbin’s .670 OPS looks Ruthian in comparison.

    Durbin is now at .740.
     

    5 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

    Short-term, the team’s doing fine, but the injuries will likely cost the team down the road, both in terms of the Priester trade and the probable loss of “conditional” picks in the 2026 MLB draft.

    Maybe you could make this argument in general, but I struggle to buy it in terms of the rotation specifically. It's not like we know they're going to pick a pitcher with the lost pick. Could it hurt in the draft? Maybe. But if Priester turns into a serviceable starter for 6 years you do that trade every single time.

    • Like 1

    They've been without their 2, 3, and 4 starters practically the entire season, and they are one game under .500.  Not many teams could survive that and while they haven't flourished, they certainly have not played their way out of playoff contention.   It could be argued that Priester and Patrick have lower ceilings this year than the 2 AAA aces, Henderson and Misiorowski have and that switching out those two could improve their chances this year.  At the very least they have the plenty of ammunition to deal for help on the left side of the infield in July.

    Offensively the guy I though going into this season that the key guy was Mitchell, and so far the results have been disappointing and now he's hurt again.  Still when he comes back, you have to keep putting him in the lineup.  If he's still flailing in July, maybe you look for help on the market there.  I never thought Dunn was the answer at 3B.  He showed nothing last year.  Third base is a hole on lots of teams including the Cubs.

    That recent slump Chiorio was in for about 10 days, was a bit of a reality check, but equally encouraging is as fast as he got into it, he appears to be out of it and when he's right, he's a star in this league.

    Bullpen issues have been in part due to Murphy's quick hooks.  He seems to get the heebiejeebies the moment the opposition reaches the 3rd time through.  As for closer spot, I would consider using Koenig in that spot



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