Are Tyler Black and Joey Wiemer Pushing For Major-League Promotions?

Unfortunately, neither of the two players most primed for a call-up have gotten off to hot starts on the terms most specifically important to them, although Tyler Black is hitting .304/.392/.435. Joey Wiemer has faced some bad luck on batted balls, and is hitting just .120/.214/.160, with some flaky defense to boot. It’s safe to say neither are forcing the front office into difficult decisions yet. What’s been happening under the surface during the first week?

Tyler Black
Black’s array of bat-to-ball skills, sneaky power and speed to burn have seen him soar to the position of 44th-best prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline. This season hasn’t started well, however, with Black's surface-level numbers belying a surprising amount of swing-and-miss in his stroke. Here are Black’s stats for the first week of 2024, compared with 2023:

• Chase Rate - 32.7% (2024) vs 18.5% (2023)
• Whiff Rate - 33.3% vs 22.4%
• Swinging Strike - 15.2% vs 9.8%
• Hard Hit rate - 41.2% vs 32.5%
• Sweet Spot Rate - 52.9% vs 23.3%
• Foul Rate - 28.9% vs 43%

Although the contact rates haven’t been close to the levels Black has shown over the last few years, the quality of contact has been considerably better. He has been feast-or-famine in how he’s hit the ball, from weakly topped balls to strongish line drives, but he hasn’t been able to stay in the at-bat by fouling off pitches and waiting on something to hit. 

With Black, this appears to be a small-sample-size thing, though one that bears watching, and the Brewers will be keeping an eye on the hard-hit rate and the whiff rates in order to assess his readiness. A real strength of his seems to be his ability to graft and grind his way on base, and it’s reassuring to see that even when he’s struggling a little at the plate, he’s still posting elite on-base percentages.

Another point to note for Black is that (per our amazing minor-league coverage team here at Brewer Fanatic) his defense at first base has been really strong so far, showing good range and adept hands. Black's biggest weakness defensively is his arm, but his ineffectual throwing motion's danger is negated by the lack of throwing required from first base. His speed will give him the range to be above-average there, and it’s nice to note his strength so far in what is still a relatively new position.

Black will have to prove he can sustain impressive exit velocities over the season, and that his power outbreak last season was no fluke. He's increasingly looking destined for a position that demands that thump. A likely timeline is probably nearer the All-Star break, depending on the performance of Jake Bauers and the health of several players. 

Joey Wiemer
Wiemer seems to be the very definition of “forcing it”, having worked intensely during the offseason on calming his swing path. The results thus far have been exactly what you’d expect from something that is still getting bedded in, with occasional flashes of monstrous tools alongside a lot of swing-and-miss and poor at-bats. Some standout statistics in the first week for Wiemer are (note that Wiemer’s 2023 stats include his time in the majors):

• Whiff Rate - 31.9% (2024) vs 33.2% (2023)
• Chase Rate - 26.3% vs 29.1%
• Launch Angle - 4.4° vs 9.1°
• Avg Exit Velocity - 91 mph vs 89.4 mph

A big reason for Wiemer’s changes in the offseason was to minimize the poor contact and be more consistent at the plate. He has an xBA of .200 and xSLG of .280 so far, while still striking out at a 25% clip. That consistency is not yet in evidence, despite the control of the zone and the quality of contact being better than last year.

In college, Wiemer struggled to harness the athletic capabilities in his frame due to low launch angles, resulting in more gap-to-gap power (at the expense of the over-the-fence variety) than you would like. The Brewers managed to unlock this power by having him focus on elevating the ball, but there is a slight worry that throughout spring training (and so far in the minor leagues), Wiemer has not managed to hit as many fly balls as Brewer fans have become accustomed to. Wiemer can be an electric difference maker, but he has to keep hitting fly balls. Otherwise, his ceiling will drop rapidly.

Defensively, he hasn’t looked himself so far, either, with a couple of plays in Wednesday night’s game that were unlike him--including dropping what was quite a routine foul fly ball and allowing an unearned run on the next pitch.

It may take time for his changes to take root, and to see just what the Brewers have in Wiemer, but the good news is that they can afford to give him plenty of playing time to lock in those changes, with such a stacked outfield in the major leagues. It’s likely that Wiemer won’t be up until there is a consistent uptick in his batted-ball numbers, and that in itself may mean a full year in the minors, barring injury. That timeline is entirely okay with a player as talented as Wiemer, who when polished can be a hitter to fear for the Brewers in 2025.

Given his need for at-bats, and the form of Brewer Hicklen (who has carried on from an excellent spring training), potentially pushes Wiemer back even in the case of an emergency until he's absolutely ready. Last year, the Crew had to lean heavily on Wiemer, due as much to injuries as to him forcing their hand. This season, they can afford to be more patient, and to have him circle back for some of the finishing touches he missed as he blitzed through the top of the minors.

What do you think of the two young stars on the Nashville Sounds roster? Have you any concerns, or perhaps a more optimistic outlook on their timelines? Let us know in the comments below.