.png.b8d56de3e7c10a6673a7a0e040759cd8.png)
Brewers Video
The Brewers fervently believe that Elvin Rodriguez can help them win games, but as was true of Grant Anderson and Grant Wolfram, it's more likely that he'll do so after Memorial Day. Unlike Anderson and Wolfram, Rodriguez survived Monday's roster cuts, but it's likely that he'll end up joining them in Nashville to open the campaign.
That would leave, in effect, three pitchers battling for the final two spots in the Brewers' relief corps: Rule 5 pick Connor Thomas, and optionable but high-upside righties Elvis Peguero and Abner Uribe. Peguero has faced more batters in high-leverage situations since the start of 2023 than any Brewers relievers but Devin Williams and Joel Payamps. Uribe might have the most electric arm on the team. Thomas has to stay on the active roster, or be placed on waivers and (if he clears) offered the choice either to return to the Cardinals or to elect free agency. Leaving any of them out would pose some level of discomfort for the team.
The safest bet in that set is that Thomas will make the team. He had an uneven outing Tuesday in Mesa, against the Cubs, but he's had a strong spring, and the Brewers are excited about what he can contribute. So, for that matter, is Thomas, who said he's a different, better pitcher than the one who was outrighted off the Cardinals' 40-man roster in Nov. 2023.
"I think the biggest thing would be the role change," Thomas said Monday. "I went from starting to relieving, and seemed to have a lot of success there. And then from there, it was just kind of my usages. I dropped my sinker almost in half, versus my cutter [and] slider, so essentially I just stopped throwing fastballs—as crazy as that sounds, it seems to have worked for me."
Indeed, not throwing fastballs would be highly unusual for a Brewers hurler—but the Brewers don't think of "fastballs" the same way the Cardinals, whence Thomas came, do. His sinker and cutter will be his predominant fastballs going forward, and that's a good thing, given his profile. Thomas said the team immediately reached out after taking him, to say that they had a new set of ideas about how to use the cutter.
"Just figure out where I need to throw the cutter, and in what counts, and how to leverage that to allow me to use my arsenal to my full potential," he recalled. "I have a really good sinker and a really good changeup as well, so how to use that cutter to help everything else play better is huge."
If Thomas's stuff plays up as the team helps him remix his arsenal, they won't let him get away easily at the front end of the season. The final spot, then, will come down to Peguero and Uribe.
The first concern about trying to carry Uribe is the fact that he'd need to be placed on the suspended list for the first four games, forcing them to play an arm short over that span. In theory, the start of the season is a good time to live that way, because everyone should be relatively fresh and there's a built-in day off after Opening Day at Yankee Stadium in New York. However, the reason for that day off is the real risk of a weather-related postponement, and if that postponement happened, the four games would all come without an off day. The first three would be against a diminished but dangerous Yankees lineup.
There's also some chance that Nestor Cortes will need to be away from the team over that span. His wife is due to give birth in mid-April, but should that joyous occasion come a couple of weeks early, the team would have to scramble a bit. Of course, they'd be able to place Cortes on the paternity list and call up an arm (Peguero, in this hypothetical) to take his place on the roster, but that would leave them with one fewer starter the first turn through the rotation and add pressure to the bullpen.
Because Thomas, Tyler Alexander, and Bryan Hudson can all give them a bit of length, though, the Crew can navigate whatever comes at them—again, barring further injury issues, which would make their decision easier in an unfortunate way. Carrying Uribe to open the campaign is viable, and he's looked downright nasty this spring. We've seen him hit 100 mph a handful of times, and he's recovering well between appearances. His sweeper is a dark-horse candidate for the best pitch on the staff right now.
That leaves Peguero. Manager Pat Murphy talked positively about the movement on Peguero's signature sinker after his last two appearances, but there's another pitch characteristic we need to talk about when it comes to the (usually!) hard-throwing right-hander.
Peguero's velocity is down a full 2 mph from last season—even last March. He's more reliant on movement and less so on velocity than many two-pitch relievers, but there's a huge difference in what hitters can do with that sinker boring in on their hands and diving below their barrels if it's at 97, and what they can do if it's 94 or 95.
Watch Peguero's velocity closely whenever he pitches in Statcast-tracked settings the rest of camp. If his velocity bounces back, he has a fair shot to edge out Uribe for the final spot in the pen. If not, though, expect to see him at Triple A when the team breaks camp in two weeks. Even if he eventually finds success at a lower velocity threshold, the team will want to make sure he has time to figure out how to do so, in a lower-stakes setting.
Thomas and Uribe have a tangible set of advantages, but there's a lot of spring training left. As ever, that's a threat, not a promise. The Brewers' pen picture is getting clearer in a hurry—but it's drawn on an Etch-a-Sketch, and another balky elbow or oblique issue could shake it up.
Follow Brewer Fanatic For Milwaukee Brewers News & Analysis
-
3
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now