Three Brewers Breakouts to Watch in 2024 - Pitching Edition

In this article are players who have the type of raw movement and high velocity that most can only dream of. Whether by dint of injuries, wavering command, or a combination of both, they have struggled to live up to their potential, but all have the ability to make monumental breakouts in 2024. Each has shown glimpses of what they can achieve while lacking consistency at the top end, so let’s take a deeper dive into what they can do if given a period of relative good health.

Freddy Peralta
Likely the first name on anyone’s list of Brewers pitchers to break out, Peralta hasn’t found his form of the 2021 season easy to replicate. After a poor start to the 2023 season, however, he recorded a 2.81 ERA en route to winning the Pitcher of the Month award in August. A list of his accomplishments after the break:

• Strikeouts per Nine - 12.58 -  (2nd)
• WHIP - 0.88 - (2nd)
• Batting Average Against - .188 (3rd)
• xFIP - 2.54 - (1st by a mile)

In short, Peralta was as dominant as can be, in large part due to a realization that he was tipping his pitches. In June, someone approached Peralta to show him he had a “tell,” and from that point on the results changed dramatically.

Whereas earlier in the season he was struggling to generate his usual swing-and-miss (particularly with two strikes), Peralta began blowing hitters away with his high-spin, flat-VAA fastball and that nasty slider, which elicited a whiff rate of 45.8% on the season. The change kept him out of the deeper counts, and resulted in lower quality of contact. Less traffic, and more cheap outs.

Fastball Freddy’s biggest remaining issue comes with the home run ball, something the entire Brewers rotation in 2023 seemed to have a fondness for. Peralta is a fly-ball pitcher, and when he leaves his pitches in the center of the strike zone, he gets punished. During the first half of the season, he found himself more prone to these errors, especially with men on base. Another slight tweak made a remarkable difference. Peralta is a high-energy, fun-loving person, which seemed to evaporate when he went to the mound in favor of a more demure, stern demeanor. Chris Hook noticed this and mentioned it in July, before Peralta really took off performance-wise. The mental side is so important in sports, and it showed here.

If you need a reminder, here’s Peralta mowing down the then-scalding Cincinnati Reds lineup:

So what does Peralta need to do in 2024? Continue where he left off over the final three months of the season, trust his stuff, and let his pitches eat up opposing hitters. It’s really that simple, and a full season of that Freddy Peralta is a strong Cy Young candidate.

Aaron Ashby
Coming off a shoulder injury that kept him out for all of 2023, it might be easy to forget just how much talent and potential Ashby has. With an elite sinker that moves in ways we haven’t seen before and that runs up to 99 mph pairing with a wipeout array of offspeed and breaking pitches, Ashby showed the potential to have both a world-class ground-ball rate and a healthy strikeout rate. However, his propensity to lose his shape and leave pitches center cut caused him some trouble major trouble with home runs, along with occasional spurts of wildness. Over the weekend, we learned that Ashby will be treated like a starter and given every opportunity to prove himself as such this season.

With the majority of hitters in the league being right-handed, it doesn’t help that Ashby gave up almost one home run every six innings pitched in 2022 to this demographic, and a big part of that was his refusal to accept that pitching up in the zone wasn’t a viable way for him to get outs. With his pitch mix of sinker, slider, changeup and curveball (but without a viable four seam fastball, since his has been crushed so far in the majors), Ashby’s location needs to be on point to the bottom of the zone, or cramping hitters high and tight. Here’s why:

As you can see, when Ashby’s command is tight on the corners, he has been nearly impossible to lay a barrel on. However, when he missed, he got absolutely pounded in 2022, and this happened too often as a result of highly volatile raw stuff. If you want to see what can make him so successful, however, here it is: When he does keep the ball down, even if he gets hit hard, it’s almost always on the ground;

The sinker he has is so potent, a modicum of command improvements could make Ashby a strong number three in a rotation, but his main goal for 2024 has to be health, realistically pitching over 120 innings. The stuff will play and his first season, however raw, provided more than enough glimpses of just how effective Aaron Ashby can be for the Brewers. The question is now whether he has retained the raw movement and velocity post-surgery that’s made him such a promising player, and whether he can take a step forward.

Abner Uribe
If raw, unbridled talent and passion is your thing, look no further than Uribe. A fiery competitor, Uribe has emerged as the heir apparent to Devin Williams and already (in half a season) possesses the 11 fastest pitches thrown in Brewers history. He averages 99.5 mph on his fastballs. Have a look at the utterly unhittable sinker that isn’t even his best pitch:

His sinker averages almost three inches more vertical drop than the average MLB two-seamer, a big reason for the 53.7% ground ball rate that allows him to get out of trouble with double plays, even when he does get a little bit wild. It’s a truly absurd offering, but it’s surpassed by Uribe's best pitch, his slider. He recorded an expected batting average of just 0.028 against it, with a 58.1% whiff rate, including inducing hitters to chase almost a third of the time. That’s really quite exceptional, given how often he missed the zone wildly. It has incredible horizontal sweep to it, which invites the question: How this can possibly be called a breakout?

Well, Uribe has some issues, and over the half a season’s service time he’s accumulated so far he has shown himself prone to wildness, both mentally and technically. When he starts to lose control, it’s akin to a self-destruct button, and it can only be a matter of time before a walk rate of 15.7% starts to catch up to you. This can be solved with time and experience at the highest level, and it’s important to note that Uribe was heavily plagued with injuries in the minor leagues, so he’s a lot more raw than you would imagine, with just 60 games of pitching experience in total.

A note to a close miss from the list: It was difficult not to mention the likes of Robert Gasser. The high ceilings of the players above just gave them the nod ahead of him, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on, too.

Can you see any of the above pitchers catching fire in April? Who would you wager to have the most expectations-defying season? Let us know in the comments below, and keep an eye out for part two on the hitters we should keep an eye on in 2024.