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DL Hall is a high-octane prospect, the 21st pick overall in the 2017 draft with electric staff, which injuries and control issues have curtailed. Joey Ortiz is as smooth as they come at shortstop, a lock to provide plus defense with solid bat-to-ball skills and a route to accessing in-game power from his high exit velocities. If they can get the most out of Ortiz and Hall, this trade will seem like a steal in a few years, but how can the Brewers get to that point?
DL Hall as a Starter
Hall is a flame-throwing left-hander with an upper-90s fastball with a massive induced vertical break (IVB), meaning he can force a lot of swings and miss up in the zone. His mid-80s changeup has developed into a plus pitch that’s been very successful against right-handed hitters, while his slider took a big step forward in 2023 to add more vertical drop and caused carnage in August and September. Baseball America ranked his fastball as 80-grade, with a 60-grade curveball and 70-grade slider. His issue is command, but even that took steps forward in 2023 when he threw more strikes than any other season in his career.
To win this trade, the Brewers will need DL Hall to be a starting pitcher and stay healthy, two questions the Baltimore Orioles weren’t confident they could answer. Command is his biggest problem, with 32 walks in 52 innings in the minor leagues during 2023, but if the Brewers can find some road to even average command, Hall’s raw stuff is amongst the best pitching prospects in baseball and presents a clear pathway to a top of the rotation arm for years to come. The reason he’s available is because of the uncertainty, but the Brewers' success in their pitching lab, turning high-end raw stuff into high-end pitchers, should be noted. Here are his absurd swing-and-miss rates at Triple-A behind the slider and fastball last season, even inside the strike zone.
Hall debuted in the majors last year down the stretch as a reliever and was effective both in the regular season and the Orioles playoff run. That being said, the Brewers have many arms in their bullpen as things stand, and high-end ones, too, with Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, and Devin Williams, meaning Hall is almost certain to be tried as a starter this year. He has the floor of a top reliever to fall back on, but make no mistake; DL Hall will be in the Brewers' rotation come Opening Day.
Joey Ortiz Accesses his Power
Ortiz hit .321/.378/.507 in an offensive-friendly Triple-A environment last year, but he shows signs of being an elite bat-to-ball player. Striking out just 17.7% of the time, he managed to make effective contact in most areas of the strike zone, as seen below:
He has areas, specifically inside pitches, where he mashes, but he doesn’t have any natural weak spots inside the strike zone, allowing him to project well after he can adjust to big-league pitching. He is MLB-ready next season, and his defensive floor means he will get regular playing opportunities. He also registers strong exit velocities and line drive rates within the zone so that he can slug, but his chase rates are astronomical. Like Jackson Chourio in 2023, Ortiz's contact skills meant he swung at pitches outside the zone too often, producing sub-optimal contact. For the following chart, chase rates of 35%+ are considered poor:
Ortiz accesses his power better from the inner half of the plate, so swinging more on the inside is justifiable in some ways. However, you must find a way to afford to do so at the rates he does in the major leagues. It should be a simple tweak in his approach, along with Chourio, that will result in more consistent power and better walk rates in the majors.
Ortiz can also enhance his value by getting regular time at shortstop, which may be in short supply given Willy Adames's elite performance in recent years. In his final season before hitting free agency, moving to put Adames at second or third base and impacting his value in free agency would likely cause an issue with Adames and the clubhouse atmosphere that the Brewers organization puts a premium on. Post 2025, there is a strong chance Ortiz can make it to his spot; however, in 2024, it most likely involves him shuffling between second and third base. It gives the Brewers the option to address needs in season, allowing Tyler Black, Brice Turang, and Joey Ortiz to fight it out for playing time (likely pushing Andruw Monasterio to the side), all of whom will get a chance to stamp their mark on the positions.
With many options in the upper minors, such as Oliver Dunn and Brock Wilken, the organization has enough options to deliberate over who to stick or twist with, and that's a fantastic place to be. I would say a lot of this conundrum depends on Brice Turang: if his bat rebounds to average production level, then Ortiz may see more time at third base; if it doesn't, Turang may be relegated to a utility glove on the bench this season, or even Triple A to develop further in preparation for 2025. Black's defense at third improved markedly last season, albeit he is likely to average at best in the majors. However, the Brewers will be loathe to move him over to first base quite so soon. He will see some playing time there in tandem with Rhys Hoskins, but the Brewers' infield is stacked with talent and questions right now, including if Adames' trade talks are being held.
It’s clear that both players have the potential to be difference-makers at the major league level, and a lot of people are sleeping on Joey Ortiz, in particular, while writing off DL Hall as a reliever. The Brewers' extraordinary pitching development team and the minor adjustments needed by Ortiz going into 2024 lead me to believe the Brewers have, despite losing Corbin Burnes, potentially upgraded their team as a whole off the back of this trade (bold statement time), never mind for the years to come. They also saved $15 million that they can use to improve their rotation for the season, meaning there could be more to come this offseason.
Does this change your thoughts about the trade? What do you think the Brewers have got in Hall and Ortiz? Let us know in the comments below.
Also, watch for more detailed rundowns surrounding each player from our prospect experts Jamie Cameron and Spencer Michaelis; they're not to be missed.
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