Brewers Pitcher of the Month - April 2023

The Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff have been ravaged with injuries, with Aaron Ashby’s shoulder likely keeping him out for the season; Brandon Woodruff suffering a Grade Two sub-scapular strain; Adrian Houser missing every game in April; and even Corbin Burnes concerning us with a potential pectoral strain. That being said, they have the eighth-best starter ERA in baseball at 3.74, which is some feat considering the above injuries and the underwhelming performance of Burnes so far.

Pitcher of the Month
I’m not sure anyone would have picked Wade Miley to be the dominant force he’s been. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball thus far. He’s pitched 29 innings, with a 1.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00–without striking out very many hitters at all. He’s in the 70th percentile for average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, consistently nibbling around the zone to limit both hard contact and walks. It’s a true masterclass of veteran pitching, without a single pitch averaging over 90 miles per hour. How has he done this?

For starters, his four-seam fastball has been deadly, inducing an average 28-degree launch angle and a lot of short fly balls and pop-ups. This is less to do with high spin rates and rising movement, and more to do with deception and how he uses it off his cutter, which drops significantly more, with the four-seamer recording a batting average against of .160 and a slugging percentage of .240. (I will point out that the expected stats against each of the cutter and four seamer don’t look quite so rosy.)

His offspeed offerings have been impressive–particularly the slider, with an xBA of .145 and an xSLG of .240, but also the changeup, which has been very cleverly used to keep the hitters off his fastball. The slider has a whiff rate of 37.5%, and has been key in both getting ahead and putting away hitters, despite being just 78 MPH and having roughly average horizontal and vertical movement.

The key to this is location, and you’ll see just how well he locates and also tunnels his pitches below, as well as how effective he is at pummeling the strike zone.

Picturing the movement on each of the changeup, slider, cutter and four seam fastball, all of these pitches will look to be starting around the middle of the strike zone, belt high, with the four seamer rising a little; the cutter breaking in to the right-hander; the changeup down and away; and the slider down and in. It makes it a nightmare for hitters to distinguish which pitch is coming next, and is a major reason for his 50th percentile chase rate despite being in the third percentile for velocity.

It’s unlikely, with his underlying metrics, that Miley can continue to produce such fantastic starts, but he’s taken advantage of the fielding corps in both the infield and outfield behind him by minimizing line drives, with just a 14.3% line-drive rate, and creating far more fly balls and ground balls. He has also benefited from William Contreras's improved framing, allowing him to get ahead of hitters with more regularity. The numbers say he’s produced more value on the edges of the zone in one month of 2023 than he did in all of 2022.

Honorable Mentions

Freddy Peralta
Fastball Freddy has been superlative to start the season, with just the one rough start against the Padres, and an unfortunate Red Sox outing hurting his ERA. His fastball has been up at velocities never before seen from him as a starter, with his extension and high spin rates making it incredibly difficult to hit even in the heart of the strike zone. He has been more hittable so far this season than previous years, but is using his pitch mix very effectively, with his changeup producing a -7 degree launch angle on average, and the slider generating a 40% whiff rate. However he is leaving his fastball quite regularly over the heart of the plate and could do with elevating it with more regularity into the upper half of the strike zone to generate more swing-and-miss against it.

Corbin Burnes
Burnes hasn’t been anywhere near his best in the first month of the season. Still, he started to induce whiffs on his cutter again in his last start against the Angels, and that’s a very good sign heading into May. Everything he does lives off the cutter’s effectiveness, but it’s to his credit that without being at his best, or anywhere close, he produced a 3.45 ERA, a .228 batting average against and a 1.08 WHIP. No one can be atop their game in every start, but we know at some point, Cy Burnes is going to get locked in.

Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff was absolutely lights-out to start the season, in the 95th percentile for Barrels allowed, 93rd percentile for chase rate and in the 90th percentile for expected slugging and wOBA. He was dominant. Then the injury bug bit, and a sub-scapular strain is likely to keep him out until at least the end of June as they start to rebuild his throwing schedule sometime in the next two weeks. It’s a very unfortunate injury for the Brewers and Woodruff, which may damage his prospects in free agency after 2024, and despite Colin Rea producing several strong starts in his absence, there’s no replacing a Brandon Woodruff.

What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Was there anyone you would argue should be on this list? And who can you see dominating in the month of May?