Let's Have Some Fun: Examining The Milwaukee Brewers' Playoff Odds As Of Today

When we last checked in on the Brewers playoff odds, on August 6th, the Brewers had a 62-49 record and a six-game lead in the Central division. They were headed into a tough part of their schedule, with ten out of their next 13 games against teams headed for the playoffs.

The Brewers crushed it over that 13-game stretch. They went 10-3 (.769 winning percentage). These winning ways have greatly improved Brewers' chances to win the division and leave the Brewers with the decision about how hard to push for a top seed in the playoffs. This is the second in a series of articles exploring the Brewers' odds of winning the division and securing a bye for the first round of the playoffs. For statistics and probability rates, we will rely heavily on FanGraphs.

Making the Playoffs:
While going 10-3 over the last two weeks, the Brewers' chances of clinching a wildcard spot in the playoffs went down to around ½ of 1%. Not very likely. This has more to do with the woeful performance of the other central division teams. The Brewers' path to the playoffs is much more likely to come through winning the division. Considering the woeful performance of the other Central Division teams,

Winning the Division:
As the Brewers ascended over the last two weeks, the rest of the central division rolled over. The Crew now has an 11-game lead over the field. The field is significantly flawed by teams that can’t seem to play .500 baseball consistently. This isn’t to say that the central division is in the bag, but the Brewers are at the self-checkout aisle buying one bag of chips with no one in front of them. The bag is wide open, and the electronic voice is ready to thank them for shopping.

If the Brewers win even a third of their remaining games, the Cardinals must win over 2/3 of theirs to win the division. Each of these scenarios happening on their own seems very unlikely, but the chances of both of them happening are extremely slight. FanGraphs’ projections give the Brewers a 98.6% chance of winning the division.

A First Round Bye:
In today’s MLB, the top two division winners get a first-round bye in the playoffs. Can the Brewers secure a bye?

This is where things currently sit in the race for a bye:

Over the last two weeks, the Brewers have increased their overall win percentage from .559 to .581 and are now within a game of the projected win totals for the Phillies and Dodgers. They have tightened the race.

Looking forward, the Dodgers have the lowest average strength of opposing schedule in each game, with opponents’ average win percentage being .495. But their schedule offers a dichotomy of opponents with eleven games against the Rockies, Marlins, and Angels. They also face current playoff teams sixteen times over the next 37 games.

Among the three division leaders, the Phillies face teams with the highest average win percentage over their remaining schedule at .503. The Brewers get a head-to-head shot against them during a three-game series at home on September 16, 17, and 18. One determinant of how difficult the Phillies' path to a bye will be the New York Mets. The Phillies play the Mets for three games before the Brewers series and another four games after the Brewers series. If the Mets are still competing for a playoff spot in mid-September, that makes for a difficult stretch for the Phillies.

The Brewers average opponent’s win percentage is .497. The Brewers bookend the Phillies series with a home and away series with the Diamondbacks for seven games. That ten-game stretch could be difficult for the Brewers as well. And where the Mets sit in the playoff picture when the Brewers play them in the last series of the year could be a factor. If the Mets are out of it by then, those last three games of the season become much easier.

Every team wants to be playing meaningful baseball in September. If there ever was a meaningful race to win the Central Division, it is all but over now. If the Brewers want their games down the stretch to be meaningful, it will likely be about competing for that first-round bye. Otherwise, they may as well sit back and eat that bag of chips.