With Playoff Bye to NLDS in Reach, Here's Why Brewers Should Pursue It Hard

Since the changes to the playoff format in 2022 that created a bye to the Division Series for each league's top two division winners, a handful of early-round upsets have happened. It's led some to wonder whether that break between the regular season and the start of a playoff run is beneficial or not. Talk of a drop in intensity, the form factor and more have been bandied about, but if you ask any MLB front office, they’d snap your hand off at the opportunity to reach a World Series by playing only two series and not three. This may be even more important for the 2024 Brewers, though, due to their likely formula for winning games in the postseason and how they’ve won in the regular season.

How Will It Affect The Brewers' Postseason Strategy?
The way the playoffs are structured (with days off between more games) should play right into the Brewers' hands, with their potentially monstrous bullpen and mix of starters. Given the struggles of every Brewers starter who goes through the order a third time, it seems quite likely there will be a lot of four and five inning starts once the team reaches October, complemented by the use of that elite bullpen. With multi-inning arms like DL Hall and Aaron Civale; the lockdown late-inning mix of Trevor Megill, Devin Williams, Bryan Hudson, and Joel Payamps; and potentially even Craig Yoho and Jacob Misiorowski thrown into the mix, the strategy seems ideal. 

The problem is that the Brewers have thrown more innings in relief than any other team but the San Francisco Giants. A lot of contributors to their early-season success have had stints on the IL of late (including Hudson and Megill, which are seemingly more for workload management than anything else), and having those days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs will allow that bullpen to be completely refreshed heading into the postseason.

We saw early in the season how effective Hudson was, before being worn down a little by usage. The same could be said of Hoby Milner, who was a little snake-bitten earlier in the year but whose real level of performance has sagged in the second half, perhaps as a result of throwing so many innings. Having that selection of arms fresh is a mighty combination, compared to what they look like when worn down.

There can also be playoff matchup advantages, but it all hinges on that first game. Theoretically, if a team were involved in a three-game Wild Card Series win, they would have used their first three starters on consecutive days. Even in a two-game series, they’ll be using their third-most effective starter against the Brewers' number one, should the Crew earn a bye. Since Milwaukee hasn’t had a bona fide ace this season, that could prove crucial in avoiding the likes of Zac Gallen, Tyler Glasnow or Chris Sale until later in the series. Starting pitching matchups aren't determinative, especially in the postseason, but getting an edge from schedule alignment has real value to the Brewers, with their flat rotation.

The inconsistency of Freddy Peralta across the year is a concern, but there remains time for him to find the best version of himself in time for the playoffs, as he did during the second half of last season. His ERA is also mostly down to his results going the third time through the order this season, with a 2.94 ERA his first two times through and a 7.90 ERA on his third time facing a lineup. His strikeout rate drops with each time through the order, but that can definitely be negated by playoff matchup machinations.

With the way the playoff schedule works, pairing Peralta for the first 18 hitters with Hall for the next nine to 12 should spell some different looks for hitters to get through six to seven innings, allowing the arsenal of closers to shut the door from there. It's the kind of setup that should bring a lot of confidence into a matchup with the third- or fourth-choice starter of their opponents and give the Brewers an initial edge, especially with how adept the Brewers have been at pressuring some of the elite arms in baseball this year (see Chris Sale).

Is The Additional Rest A Help Or A Hindrance?
Perhaps most obvious in the workload equation is the burden placed on some of the Brewers' key offensive contributors, who react to a day off as if it were a dose of smallpox. Willy Adames has played every single game at shortstop this season, while William Contreras has featured in 120 of the 124 games played so far this year, with almost 80% of those being as a catcher. Both have been incredibly productive in August, but the last thing this Brewers team can afford is for both of them to tail off due to the intense workload of the season just when the stakes get raised.

There’s also the style of baseball the Brewers play, which can take a greater toll than most. They grind and scrap mentally for every possible inch, playing a speed and discipline game which is highly conducive to playoff baseball. However, it also wears you down far faster than a more relaxed style. The intensity with which Adames, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Colin Rea and others approach baseball is tough to maintain over a concerted period, and is a big reason why the Brewers fell into a slump leading into the All-Star break.

They cannot afford for the same phenomenon to hit them at the end of a long season, going straight into the playoffs, and may have to decide between giving players appropriate rest in the final few weeks or chasing hard for that playoff bye. Their division lead should make September relatively stress-free, but the race for the top two seeds could go down to the wire. 

Skipping straight to the NLCS has a lot of advantages: playing a more worn-down team (albeit one experiencing high levels of momentum and adrenaline); the initial matchup advantage to get off to a good start in the series; and the additional home game involved. Financially, Mark Attanasio would be very happy with the additional revenue, and the rest will be absolutely invaluable to a team who plays the most gritty and intense style of baseball possible in the modern era. Their overworked bullpen will thank them. Their offensive stalwarts will thank them. This is the best chance to see the best form of Brewers baseball in the postseason.

What do you think of the Brewers pursuit of a bye? Is it a notable advantage? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!