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  • Brewers Trade Target: Jorge Polanco


    Matthew Trueblood

    The Brewers' priorities this winter will be finding good options for the corner infield spots, and to solidify their projected production from the designated hitter spot. They could also use some help at second base, though, and one available player could check multiple boxes for them.

    Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Minnesota Twins are in an interesting predicament. They exercised their club option on Jorge Polanco for 2024 earlier this month, but Polanco is no longer an ideal fit for their roster and their payroll. With a transitional year ahead for the team's broadcast rights and with Edouard Julien and Kyle Farmer around to man second base, Polanco's eight-figure salary has become a luxury the team can't necessarily afford.

    As (first) Luis Arraez and (this season) Julien have nudged him away from second base, Polanco has taken some reps at third recently. He played just over 100 innings there in the 2023 regular season, and also started there during the playoffs. He's versatile at the plate, too, a switch-hitter who can generate some power from each side of the plate and has a feel for altering his approach to suit various situations. He batted .255/.335/.454 in 2023, in a season somewhat disrupted by injury.

    If the Brewers believe greatly in Tyler Black as a defensive third baseman, then Polanco would merely be insurance at that spot, and the primary reason to acquire him would be to unseat incumbent Brice Turang--an exchange that would be a downgrade defensively, but a bigger upgrade at the plate. Turang, in that case, would slide into a utility role, where his sparkling defense on the middle infield could help the team and his weak bat couldn't hurt it as much.

    Black's defense really isn't sufficient at the hot corner right now, though. His bat is big-league-ready, but his glove is not, at least at third. The better course for the Crew, then, might be to acquire Polanco, insert him at third, and mix in Black gradually (if at all). The rookie could, instead, play first base most of the time. Polanco is most valuable, in a vacuum, at second base, but his versatility is what makes him an especially interesting trade target for Matt Arnold.

    Since the Twins picked up his 2024 option, Polanco is also under team control (if whatever team he plays for wants him) for 2025. After earning $10.5 million in 2024, he'll be in line for $12 million in 2025. That's not an insignificant investment, but it's below the market rate for a player with Polanco's consistent offensive track record. The fact that it's an option will also appeal to trade suitors who knock on the Twins' door. Flexibility has a certain monetary value, in itself. Most importantly, there's a dearth of good infield options available in free agency this winter--a constraint on supply that will increase demand for Polanco if the Twins do dangle him.

    The Brewers would still have some leverage in these negotiations. While Milwaukee isn't positioned to spend especially aggressively this winter, it's the Twins who are truly cornering themselves with a self-imposed budget cutback. That increases the urgency, for them, in offloading a big salary like those owed to Polanco or to part-time catcher Christian Vázquez. There's a deal to be made; it just requires the Brewers to be open to what the Twins would want.

    What the Twins would want is a center fielder. Many reports have the team looking to assemble packages of their controllable position players to reinforce their starting rotation, and those are well-founded, but when it comes to this trade fit, the guys the Twins would want to talk about are Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor, and Sal Frelick.

    Last season, Byron Buxton didn't appear in a single game as the Twins' center fielder. He was a full-time DH, a limitation born of a nagging knee injury. It's unlikely that he'll play even half the games in center field in a season ever again, and with stopgap veteran replacement Michael A. Taylor now a free agent, the Twins need to find a longer-term solution for the problem posed by Buxton's unavailability. With the Brewers overloaded with good-not-great center field options who cost very little and the Twins needing both to fill that spot and to do it cheaply, the fit here seems serendipitous.

    Obviously, no two potential deals involving the players above would look exactly the same. Although he's a very inexpensive option, Taylor wouldn't be enough to get Polanco, by himself. Any of the other three probably would, but the Brewers are unlikely to trade Frelick in a straight-up swap for a player so much less exciting and so much more expensive, even if he is a better fit for their needs than Frelick. In my opinion, Wiemer is the sweet spot. The Twins lean left-handed in their positional corps (Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Julien, Trevor Larnach, to name a few) and would most love to fill that spot with a righty. Wiemer has a high ceiling, but he's a long way from reaching it, and the presence of Taylor, Blake Perkins, and Chris Roller on the 40-man roster makes Wiemer a little redundant in Milwaukee.

    What do you think? Should the Brewers trade Wiemer for Polanco? Would you trade for Polanco at all, and if so, what modifications to this proposed deal would you like to see? Let us know.

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    Polanco for an OF would free up a little space for Chourio this year, so it is tempting. I think it would take more than just one player for Polanco, but Milwaukee could probably make the trade work without removing an important piece.

    I'm not ready to give up on Turang, though. Maybe a UTIL spot is a better fit for him, at least at this point.

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    I would love Polanco, especially if we trade Adames. Polanco could play 2B or a little 3B (SS for a game or two if need be but not more). He still has great power that would play up in AFF. 

    I wouldnt mind trading an OF for him but would want a decent 2nd piece if it is Weimer or Mitchell just based on control and potential. For Taylor straight up would be pretty close. 

    Weimer for Polanco and SS Danny De Andrade would seem ok to me.

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    The guy is 30 years old, will turn 31 next season, and only played in 104 games in 2022, and 80 games in 2023.

    He is becoming an injury concern, so overpaying is not a good idea at this point.

    I'd be willing to trade Taylor for him straight up, but if we are going to move Mitchell or Wiemer for him, they would have o kick in another player.

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    Jorge Polanco + Jose Miranda for Joey Wiemer + (fill in blank).

    Who is the fill in the blank? Someone like Logan Henderson?

    BTW has that skewed toward the Twins but I think they're undervaluing Jose Miranda a bit.

    image.png

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    31 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Jorge Polanco + Jose Miranda for Joey Wiemer + (fill in blank).

    Who is the fill in the blank? Someone like Logan Henderson?

    BTW has that skewed toward the Twins but I think they're undervaluing Jose Miranda a bit.

    image.png

    Jose Miranda put up a 57 wRC+ in MLB and a 74 wRC+ at AAA this year.

    Small samples but he has negative OAA at 1B (-4) and 3B (-6). His DRS is also negative at 1B (-6). Throw in -5.9 runs on the bases in his short career and dudes gonna need a 120 wRC+ to provide even a little value.

    Steamer is projecting him to “bounce back” to a 103 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR.

    At least Polanco can hit (119 wRC+), but he’s another guy that can’t field with -42 DRS at SS, -31 OAA at SS and -16 OAA at 2B.

    Really hope the Brewers wouldn’t even be interested in these guys, much less give up Wiemer and Henderson.

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    3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

    Jose Miranda put up a 57 wRC+ in MLB and a 74 wRC+ at AAA this year.

    Small samples but he has negative OAA at 1B (-4) and 3B (-6). His DRS is also negative at 1B (-6). Throw in -5.9 runs on the bases in his short career and dudes gonna need a 120 wRC+ to provide even a little value.

    Steamer is projecting him to “bounce back” to a 103 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR.

    At least Polanco can hit (119 wRC+), but he’s another guy that can’t field with -42 DRS at SS, -31 OAA at SS and -16 OAA at 2B.

    Really hope the Brewers wouldn’t even be interested in these guys, much less give up Wiemer and Henderson.

    Miranda had a recurring shoulder issue all season, which is reportedly ready to go now. That's why he went from a 2021 156 wRC+ in AAA and a 2022 117 wRC+ in MLB to the dreadful numbers you posted in 2023.

    I'm skeptical Miranda will ever be a good third baseman defensively but don't put too much stock in his first base defense, he was basically handed a glove and told to stand there. The Twins tend to do that to players and it rarely works out well for them in the short-term.

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    46 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Miranda had a recurring shoulder issue all season, which is reportedly ready to go now. That's why he went from a 2021 156 wRC+ in AAA and a 2022 117 wRC+ in MLB to the dreadful numbers you posted in 2023.

    I'm skeptical Miranda will ever be a good third baseman defensively but don't put too much stock in his first base defense, he was basically handed a glove and told to stand there. The Twins tend to do that to players and it rarely works out well for them in the short-term.

    Yeah, but that 117 wRC+ over 483 PA in 2022 only shook out to 1.1 WAR because his defense (-9.5 runs) and base running (-4.5 runs) were so bad.

    Just seems like the generic 1B only kind of profile teams generally view as pretty fungible from a value standpoint.

    I guess he’s young enough to still overcome that, but when your mitt and wheels have you that far in the hole right outta the gate you pretty much need like a 130 wRC+ to even crack 2.0 WAR.

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    8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

    Yeah, but that 117 wRC+ over 483 PA in 2022 only shook out to 1.1 WAR because his defense (-9.5 runs) and base running (-4.5 runs) were so bad.

    Just seems like the generic 1B only kind of profile teams generally view as pretty fungible from a value standpoint.

    I guess he’s young enough to still overcome that, but when your mitt and wheels have you that far in the hole right outta the gate you pretty much need like a 130 wRC+ to even crack 2.0 WAR.

    His defense as currently constituted is definitely a problem. My expectation would be the Brewers might be able to eke some additional value out of that, they seem better at doing that than the Twins, particularly with infielders.

    Miranda isn't some lumbering clutz, he looks and feels like a guy who CAN be average with coaching and work.

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    10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

    Jose Miranda put up a 57 wRC+ in MLB and a 74 wRC+ at AAA this year.

    Small samples but he has negative OAA at 1B (-4) and 3B (-6). His DRS is also negative at 1B (-6). Throw in -5.9 runs on the bases in his short career and dudes gonna need a 120 wRC+ to provide even a little value.

    Steamer is projecting him to “bounce back” to a 103 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR.

    At least Polanco can hit (119 wRC+), but he’s another guy that can’t field with -42 DRS at SS, -31 OAA at SS and -16 OAA at 2B.

    Really hope the Brewers wouldn’t even be interested in these guys, much less give up Wiemer and Henderson.

    Yeah the way Arnold & co value defender status in their players I just don’t see interest in Polanco. 

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