Brewers Get Upside in Corbin Burnes Trade, but Not the Power Guy They Needed

This article makes A LOT of assumptions. Like you mention, Mayo may not have even been available, especially for one year of a pitcher. Also, while there is a lot to like with Mayo, he's likely not going to be able to play 3B at an MLB level, which means he's either a 1B or DH long term. Ortiz has the glove to stick at SS, a much more valuable defensive position.

After “apparently not the nuts,” I refuse to take anything in this article seriously.

I don't see not getting Mayo as a big negative.  Brock Wilken plays the same position and could shoot up prospect lists with a good year in the high minors this year (Keith Law already has him in his top 100).  Wilken didn't show a ton of power in the minors last year but I'm sure the Brewers expect him to be a 25 HR guy.

Disagree with virtually every opinion in the article. Agree with the takes from the posters above so I won’t repeat, but I do take issue with the disparaging opinions on the teams recent drafts and hitting development.

They aren’t the second best farm in baseball because of their pitching depth.

Wilken could end up just as good of a power threat and he could actually be a 3B in the bigs.

This trade was about what I expected for Burnes, but I too was hopeful for more and Mayo was on my radar.

Other teams were sniffing at Burnes too and apparently this was the best offer the Brewers could get.  I would agree a goodly return but far from top end potential.

It is Adamas's turn and time is running out.  By trade or signing I would like to see a legitimate MLB starter added.  I doubt Adamas brings that but here is where we could add a soon to be future power bat to the lineup.  3B/1B preferably.  They are out there.

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Disagree with virtually every opinion in the article. Agree with the takes from the posters above so I won’t repeat, but I do take issue with the disparaging opinions on the teams recent drafts and hitting development.

They aren’t the second best farm in baseball because of their pitching depth.

Wilken could end up just as good of a power threat and he could actually be a 3B in the bigs.

Well, they could have the best farm stocked full of mashers in the world, it still doesn’t change the fact that have not developed one single difference making offensive player who has proven it at the major league level. The Brewers have a fantastic farm system that is deep and wide and have been developing pitchers for years now. But it is not necessarily disparaging to point out an industry accepted fact that the Brewers have had a giant hole in their system at developing hitters for almost a decade. And I am of the mind that that narrative will change this year or next, finally. But until then, it still stands.

3 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

I'm sorry you didn't understand the gambling/poker reference this refers to. In that same sentence I reference ace in the hole & hold all the cards.

Fair enough.  I know nothing about poker (though the other two references are common enough that I get them).  All I can do is read what you write with my ordinary understanding of what words mean.

So far I have yet to hear about where Mayo ranks as a defender at the hot corner. One only needs to look a at a trade the Milwaukee Bucks made when they acquired Damian Lillard. Instant offense (most of the time), but the defensive vacuum created by the loss of Jrue Holiday has arguably made the Bucks worse, not better.

I hope the corollary makes a bit of sense...

How about Devin, Wiemer and the draft pick we got from the Orioles for Gunnar Henderson (instead of Mayo)?

15 minutes ago, Profbratsch said:

How about Devin, Wiemer and the draft pick we got from the Orioles for Gunnar Henderson (instead of Mayo)?

No way the Orioles trade Henderson, come on man...

It’s not as though the Orioles would not gain an elite player in Devin. If they are going to make a run to the Series, there can never be enough first-class arms.

Let's just ignore the fact that you can't trade a Competitive Balance pick more than once and examine your trade idea. According to BTV, it has Henderson at 104.1 and the package we would be sending the O's at 41.90. 

To put that in perspective, you would need to nearly add an Ozzie Albies' worth of value to make this fair.

4 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

I'd truly like to know how you think I was "disparaging" the Brewers struggles to develop young hitters? I think it's fantastic they are ranked so highly and I can't wait to see more of Black, Chourio, Frelick and others. But the truth is, they have had far more success getting guys into MLB and getting top-level results from their pitching work. They have a tremendous opportunity over the next 6-8 years to prove their offensive analysis and development has taken a turn, but that doesn't change the recent history.

And I agree Wilken could be that guy at 3B. You still want power at 1B and DH...and that is IF Wilken works out. Sometimes we believe all of our own guys will reach their potential while other teams' players will struggle. Again, I get why they pulled the trigger on the deal and NONE of us know who or what was discussed between the teams, so we're ALL making some assumptions. The funny thing is...I hope the Brewers are right and successful with Hall and Ortiz, even if it "makes me look stupid."  

Tod Johnson & co. 

Prior to his hiring the team had a decade of poor drafting and development, But after a slow start in ‘17 with the Hiura pick, and a poor ‘19 class, they have really hit their stride with good to great drafts since that have helped make the farm almost the equal of Baltimore, a team with numerous top 5 picks and massive pool monies.

The changes Stearns started making to the hitting development department 3-4 years ago appears to be working with numerous prospects now making improvements in the box.

After last year’s draft, we now have some power potential added with Wilken-Pratt-Bitonti, and potentially more coming with up to $30M in pool money and 6 of the top 40 picks in the next 2 drafts. 

I think it’s just as difficult to find a plus defender at SS that can hit the ball hard (Ortiz) as a power hitting bat (Mayo) that can hit in the MOTO.

You know what "World Series teams" need even more than the Coby Mayo's of the world?

1) High level SS play....We have Adames now, yes, but we won't after the season....

2) Elite "stuff" arms. Yeah, we gave one up in Burnes, but we just gained 6 years of control with another one in Hall.

You demand and hold out for Mayo in this trade (who has an appreciably higher surplus value btw), and you get neither of these things and are most likely having to add in additional pieces like Gasser, etc. We got both of them in one trade. And already have a guy who's one year, maybe less, from being a Coby Mayo in Wilken. 

I respectfully disagree with the premise of this article.

51 minutes ago, wallus said:

Let's just ignore the fact that you can't trade a Competitive Balance pick more than once and examine your trade idea. According to BTV, it has Henderson at 104.1 and the package we would be sending the O's at 41.90. 

To put that in perspective, you would need to nearly add an Ozzie Albies' worth of value to make this fair.

I was not aware of the ramifications of the Competitive Balance pick, and I admit to being clueless about analytics. What you have said makes sense to me now-thanks.

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You know what "World Series teams" need even more than the Coby Mayo's of the world?

1) High level SS play....We have Adames now, yes, but we won't after the season....

2) Elite "stuff" arms. Yeah, we gave one up in Burnes, but we just gained 6 years of control with another one in Hall.

You demand and hold out for Mayo in this trade (who has an appreciably higher surplus value btw), and you get neither of these things and are most likely having to add in additional pieces like Gasser, etc. We got both of them in one trade. And already have a guy who's one year, maybe less, from being a Coby Mayo in Wilken. 

I respectfully disagree with the premise of this article.

 

Well said.

Lets also add getting the 34th pick and $2.6M in pool money we will use to add what will likely be more impact talent to the system.

The 34th pick on its own is pretty close to a team’s 10th best prospect, depending on the system strength. 

But getting 3 of Baltimore’s top 10-type prospects if we include the pick is actually quite the haul.