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    Do Brewers Hitters Make Pitchers Work at Mistake Speed?

    No offense works materially faster than the Brewers'—and that's not just a comment on their penchant for infield hits or stolen bases.

    Matthew Trueblood
    Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

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    Four times, this year, Brewers batters have been called for pitch timer violations. They've given up a strike four times, which is right around the middle of the pack for the league. Three teams have gone the whole year, so far, without a batter being called for a timer violation, so on one level, the Crew are unremarkable.

    Here's the thing, though: they're not. There is something unusual and valuable about the way the Crew approaches plate appearances, in terms of playing under the clock of the modern game. Of the four timer violations called on Milwaukee batters, three—one each by Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins in June, and another by Jake Bauers last week—came before the first pitch of at-bats. Durbin and Collins were coming up right behind players who had gotten big hits, and they were really just letting the energy of the play and the dugout resettle before making ready for the pitch. Bauers was leading off an inning in Texas last Wednesday, when he was called for not engaging with the pitcher in a timely manner. The only other instance came in early April, when Joey Ortiz spent too long pondering a bunt sign on a 2-0 count. 

    Overall, the Brewers are much more likely to push the opposing pitcher out of their comfort zone, in the opposite direction. With no runners on base, the Crew have the second-fastest average pitch tempo by batters in the league, trailing only the alacrity of the White Sox. With runners on, they're just sixth-fastest on average, but they're faster than the White Sox in that split. Furthermore, only three teams—Washington, Detroit, and quasi-Atlanta—see a higher percentage of their pitches within 15 seconds of the previous one with runners on base.

    This might not sound like something that matters, or even something that a batter can substantially influence, but it is. The hitter has to be in the box and attentive to the pitcher by the time the clock reads :08, but of course, they have the option to do so sooner. The pitcher, meanwhile, can't pitch without making eye contact (or, at least, ensuring that the batter is ready), so there's a real sense in which the batter controls the tempo of the at-bat.

    Of the 345 batters who qualify for the leaderboard in pitch tempo at Baseball Savant, eight Brewers rank in the top 69 for fastest pace with no runners on. That covers most of their main contributors, including Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Joey Ortiz, William Contreras and Andrew Vaughn. Garrett Mitchell, Eric Haase and Andruw Monasterio have all played too little to qualify for that leaderboard, but all of them would also crowd in near the top.

    It's something they even preach to newcomers. When Danny Jansen was traded from the Rays to the Brewers, he went from the 23rd percentile in average pace to the 72nd. Only 27.8% of his pitches with the bases empty came within 15 seconds of the previous one during his Tampa tenure, but with Milwaukee, that number has jumped to 37.5%. Once it's your turn, the Brewers want you in the box and forcing the issue.

    What effect does this have? Well, firstly, consider this: when Brewers batters are ahead in the count, opposing pitchers throw 35.3% of their pitches in the heart of the zone, according to Statcast. That's the highest rate in the league. As a result, no team in baseball can match the 266 hits the Brewers have collected on exactly that kind of pitch: a meatball, when they're already ahead. The Crew's patient approach at the plate forces pitchers to work from a disadvantage, and then their insistence on being ready for the next pitch almost instantly pressures the hurler into mistakes.

    That's within an at-bat. There's also the effect across at-bats, especially within innings. Countless times, this season, the situation has seemed to snowball for opponents, and the Brewers don't just push across a run; they get three. In fact, they've scored at least four runs in an inning 52 times, leading the league. They don't just string together positive outcomes. They rush them at you. There's less time for a pitcher to collect themselves, and less time for them to recover from the previous offering, and less time for the coaching staff to get a reliever warm. Things get out of control.

    Normally, the compensation for that comes from the other team playing more crisp defense. You've heard, countless times over the years, how a pitcher who works quickly keeps their defense alert and ready. However, as we've discussed several times over the last two years, that compensation never really comes for poor opponents with this team. The Brewers have team speed, and they bunt and they run the bases aggressively, and they use the whole field and make you defend it. Making the pitcher work quickly doesn't cannibalize that edge for them, because they're in control of the pace. It puts defenders on their heels, instead. That's why they've reached on 40 errors this year, to boot.

    We're into the realm of subtleties so small it's hard to believe they're intentional, but look at the difference it made when Jansen arrived in Milwaukee. Vaughn didn't even need that nod; they picked him up from the only offense more dedicated to rushing opponents than they are. The Brewers are, to borrow and (wistfully) sanitize Pat Murphy's mantra a bit, friggin' relentless. They're running to the bat racks, and from there to the on-deck circle, and then to the batter's box, and then around the bases. You'd better keep up. (You can't keep up.)

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    i'm curious how this will play in the playoffs, where every pitch and moment is more intense - which usually ends up meaning slower-paced. given that there's already talk about how the brewers relentless style of play works good for wins in the regular season but how in the postseason, everyone is taking every AB and pitch more seriously, this is just another thing that may not be an actual advantage in the playoffs. 

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    Much (but not all) of this discussion about how the Crew rushes other teams hinges on this:

    The hitter has to be in the box and attentive to the pitcher by the time the clock reads :08, but of course, they have the option to do so sooner. The pitcher, meanwhile, can't pitch without making eye contact (or, at least, ensuring that the batter is ready), so there's a real sense in which the batter controls the tempo of the at-bat.

    Clearly a batter can slow things down by taking all the time they're allowed. But the only way they can speed things up (which is the foundation of Matthew's argument) is by getting ready fast and thereby applying psychological pressure on pitchers to respond to their readiness sooner than they would prefer. 

    Circumstantial evidence was presented that the Brewers' hitters are in fact rushing pitchers by getting ready fast. But there's no direct evidence of this, such as pitchers admitting to it (which might be the only direct evidence possible). 

    I'm going to remain a tad skeptical of the theory. The reason is that professional athletes are highly trained and coached, as well as highly competitive, so wouldn't teams see what the Brewers are doing and say, "Hey, man, you're not going to rush me with that crap." 

    It's possible that opponents will figure it out over time and the impact of fast readiness will decrease. Or maybe a pitcher's psyche is just easily influenced like that and the tactic will continue being effective indefinitely. And then maybe more teams will start teaching this. 

    I don't know, but I remain at least a little skeptical for now and am interested to see how it plays out over time.

    5 hours ago, maxximus said:

    i'm curious how this will play in the playoffs, where every pitch and moment is more intense - which usually ends up meaning slower-paced. given that there's already talk about how the brewers relentless style of play works good for wins in the regular season but how in the postseason, everyone is taking every AB and pitch more seriously, this is just another thing that may not be an actual advantage in the playoffs. 

    I think this is a super interesting take. One of the things I love so much about baseball is the intensity of the moment before the pitch, especially in the biggest moments in the playoffs. In that moment, baseball has the intensity of a one-on-one battle but in the context of a team sport. Not sure there's anything quite like it in any other sport.

    So the question I think maxximus is posing is whether the Brewers will slow down in the playoffs due to the pressure of the moment and/or other teams forcing the Brewers to slow down because those teams will make sure to slow down themselves rather than responding to the Brewers' pace.

    I honestly have no idea, but I think it's a fascinating question. If the Brewers have gotten used to playing fast and can maintain their pace in the playoffs (possibly reminded and urged by their coaches), their faster pace might be even more effective in the playoffs because of the added stress that the other team is experiencing. And the Brewers themselves may feel even more confident knowing how they're pressuring the other team.

    I could really see this playing out either way. Over time and with greater playoff experience, the Brewers may become even better at maintaining their pace in the playoffs, but they're very young at the moment. So this factor may change over time. In any event, it will be really interesting to watch. 

    I don't think the pitchers need to be aware of it to be effective. While the clock is present for the actual signal the rule does force the pitcher to look at the batter, so if the Brewers really are messing with pitchers timing by being ready sooner than other teams the pitchers would probably be responding by starting their own internal timing clock for how long  they have. Put another way as part of adapting to having a pitch clock in general it is hard to imagine that pitchers didn't develop an internal sense to avoid pitch clock violations. 



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