Is 2026 a Make or Break Year For Aaron Ashby?

My biggest complaint with Ashby is his control, second is injuries.  If he could solve the control issues he'd be ok. Relievers just can't be walking batters like he does. 

2 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

If Ashby becomes a dominant starter to the tune of the 176 ERA+ he has posted (per Baseball Reference), then he becomes an obvious keeper.

If Ashby did this, they'd... likely trade him as he'd be up there with the best pitchers in the game and the return would be massive. 

I would think you'd be hoping Ashby could post an ERA of ~3-3.30 and give you 120 IP. You'll likely have numerous guys who will need to have their innings managed. He'd be one, Mis, Woodruff, Logan Henderson. 

2 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

If neither happens, Milwaukee has the choice of not picking up his 2028 option. That course of action would put Ashby into the arbitration process, which could get very rough and wreck the team’s relationship with him (see Josh Hader and Burnes for examples). On the other hand, he's both smart and amiable, and would probably not be unduly insulted by having the option turned down.

Ok... but you'd still have the 2027 season to make that decision... and it's PRETTY big leap to assume that he'd somehow end up in the same situation as the guy who was the reliever of the year and the most valuable non-starting pitcher in Baseball in Hader when he went to arbitration. 

He'd also be coming off a 7.7M salary so... the lowest you could offer him would be ~6.2M as you can only offer a 20% decrease. 

35 minutes ago, Brian said:

My biggest complaint with Ashby is his control, second is injuries.  If he could solve the control issues he'd be ok. Relievers just can't be walking batters like he does. 

Injuries are part of pitching, but he's right about average as far as walks go. 3.2 BB per 9 is... pretty much average for a reliever(maybe a bit better than average). Add in over 10K per 9IP and a 60% GB rate... yeah, it be nice if he was even better, but it's pretty good. 

Coming back from Shoulder surgery to throw 97-100 is... pretty rare. 

If he COULD do what he did last year over 150 innings or so... that'd be incredibly valuable. But it's pretty unlikely. 

He's very affordable and valuable as a multi inning set up guy this year.  He can give 80 plus innings in that role if they use him properly.  

With Freddy and (probably) Woody out of the rotation in 2027, that really becomes his make or break it season from a contract value perspective.. 

I think making him a closer is an interesting/creative thought on ways to achieve excess value, but his lack of control makes that a big challenge, not to mention that they will likely have one of the best closers in the game in Uribe.

I think they will look at him as a potential starter this spring for the reasons identified in the article.  And based on injuries, could slot him in.  But I think they are a better team with Freddy, Woody, QP, Mis and Patrick as the top 5.  

I think Ashby will provide excess value from the pen this year, so it's not a make or break season.  I think that happens next season once Freddy and Woody move on.

1 hour ago, dsid74 said:

I think making him a closer is an interesting/creative thought on ways to achieve excess value, but his lack of control makes that a big challenge, not to mention that they will likely have one of the best closers in the game in Uribe.

I think people are going off the perception Ashby has worse control(especially if we're talking about Uribe). 

BB per 9
Megill 3.3
Uribe 3.2
Ashby 3.2

I don't think they should make him a closer(I don't think they should make Uribe a closer next year as we should just leave Megill right there). 

Ashby is... just fine though. 

17 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think people are going off the perception Ashby has worse control(especially if we're talking about Uribe). 

BB per 9
Megill 3.3
Uribe 3.2
Ashby 3.2

I don't think they should make him a closer(I don't think they should make Uribe a closer next year as we should just leave Megill right there). 

Ashby is... just fine though. 

Yeah I'm a bit confused about those comments as well. For his career, Ashby has an 8.2% BB-rate as a RP which is actually above average by RP standards. It's at 7.9% as a RP the last two seasons. I think the perfect role for Ashby is in the early Josh Hader role where he's basically a relief ace. You let him be a multi-inning fireman.

I just don't think Ashby has the control to be a SP and his velo drops off a bit as a SP as well. I think even in a Hader role that Ashby would be valuable at this contract amount and that he would still have good trade value if you decided to trade him before those two club option years kick in.

By the way these are Ashby's numbers as a RP the last two years.

54 G, 84.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 2.88 xERA, 2.31 FIP, 2.72 xFIP, 2.65 SIERA, 29.7% K-rate, 7.9% BB-rate, 21.8% K-BB rate, 60% GB-rate, 3.4% barrel rate

Those are just out of this world numbers. The combination of K-BB rate, ground ball rate, and barrel rate is basically everything you could ever want in a pitcher. This is a Top 5 RP in baseball profile.

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah I'm a bit confused about those comments as well. For his career, Ashby has an 8.2% BB-rate as a RP which is actually above average by RP standards. It's at 7.9% as a RP the last two seasons. I think the perfect role for Ashby is in the early Josh Hader role where he's basically a relief ace. You let him be a multi-inning fireman.

I just don't think Ashby has the control to be a SP and his velo drops off a bit as a SP as well. I think even in a Hader role that Ashby would be valuable at this contract amount and that he would still have good trade value if you decided to trade him before those two club option years kick in.

By the way these are Ashby's numbers as a RP the last two years.

54 G, 84.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 2.88 xERA, 2.31 FIP, 2.72 xFIP, 2.65 SIERA, 29.7% K-rate, 7.9% BB-rate, 21.8% K-BB rate, 60% GB-rate, 3.4% barrel rate

Those are just out of this world numbers. The combination of K-BB rate, ground ball rate, and barrel rate is basically everything you could ever want in a pitcher. This is a Top 5 RP in baseball profile.

The only thing I'd disagree with is I'd like to see him start. His stuff is too good, he's got 4 pitches. Hall can pitch vs lefties or in a multi-inning role(albeit not as good, but... I'd give Ashby a shot) and they have other arms they can throw out there. 

22 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

The only thing I'd disagree with is I'd like to see him start. His stuff is too good, he's got 4 pitches. Hall can pitch vs lefties or in a multi-inning role(albeit not as good, but... I'd give Ashby a shot) and they have other arms they can throw out there. 

Ashby is about to be 28.  He has been bad as a starter (4.81 ERA, 4.59 FIP) and great as a reliever (2.55 ERA, 2.45 FIP). He was not good in AAA when mostly starting in 2024. There just doesn't seem to be anything left there to find out.

2 hours ago, endaround said:

Ashby is about to be 28.  He has been bad as a starter (4.81 ERA, 4.59 FIP) and great as a reliever (2.55 ERA, 2.45 FIP). He was not good in AAA when mostly starting in 2024. There just doesn't seem to be anything left there to find out.

He was working his way back from the same surgery Woodruff was coming off and was throwing with about 10 less MPH velo when he first came back in 2024. And a lot of those games he was a "starter" he was more like an opener because he was rehabbing. 

He's healthy now and a 4 pitch pitcher. 

That tells me nothing about his ability to start. The only reason he wouldn't start would be depth. The Brewers and Murphy have both talked about him starting and I still think there's a lot to figure out. He was a 2nd year pitcher when he was used as a swing man in 2022. That's one partial season of starting.