Is 2026 a Make-or-Break Year for Brewers' Tyler Black?

In one sense, it seems absurd that Tyler Black is in a make-or-break situation with the Brewers. He was a top-100 prospect after his breakout 2023 season, but then things went sideways. Two trades in the 2023-2024 offseason put Joey Ortiz and Oliver Dunn ahead of Black at third base—though he, in turn, gave no evidence that he could handle the spot, anyway. Another trade saw Jake Bauers take the role of left-handed complement to Rhys Hoskins in Milwaukee for the 2024 season—though Black didn't hit enough to be a first baseman, either.

Black ended up riding the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle a bit, and never really got the chance to fully adjust to big-league pitching or to settle in at some position and find a defensive home. Even when Christian Yelich was gone for the season, the Brewers kept Black in Nashville, instead of giving him the chance to fill in at DH.

Black’s luck got a bit worse in 2025, when he suffered a hamate injury. Again, he spent most of the season at Triple-A Nashville, while also spending time at Maryvale rehabbing with the ACL Brewers. In a brief stint with Milwaukee, with far fewer plate appearances than he had in 2024, he posted a .538 OBP and only struck out once.

Black could still be an asset in the Brewers lineup. He's not powerful enough to hit in the middle of the batting order and he lacks defensive value, but he seems likely to sustain an average or better on-base percentage even against the best pitching in the world.

The big question, of course, is whether can he break through on a talented Brewers team. Isaac Collins properly won plaudits for his defense in left field, and his approach is somewhat similar to Black’s. He's a switch-hitter, unlike Black, and he's proved that he can be a plus hitter in the majors. Collins's sluggish finish to the season cracks the door for Black, but he's probably the only player on the projected 26-man roster Black has any hope of displacing—and again, that would require the best version of Black to show up this spring, whereas Collins has much less to prove.

Could Black also end up at first base? It would require, at the very least, a slump or injury to Bauers, who has the power normally associated with that position. Bauers also plays better defense at the cold corner. Even if Bauers were hurt, Andrew Vaughn might expand his role to take all the playing time at the position; he certainly showed more in 2025 than Black has ever shown. Collins’s defense is similarly better in left field, which has been the sticking point for Black. He’s not found a defensive home. 

In short, Black needs to get significant at-bats at the major-league level in order to be sure about his remaining upside. If the Brewers can find him some playing time, Black deserves one more chance. If they can’t, he will likely be traded—or worse, designated for assignment and picked up for a song by another team. That could happen before Opening Day, but at the very latest, he'll finish the season as either a late-blooming breakout guy or some other team's problem.

Do you think Tyler Black will make it in 2026? Let us know in the comments below!