What Should Brewers Fans Make of Jackson Chourio's Latest Prospect Ranking?

Jackson Chourio has been the crown jewel of the Brewers system almost since he signed as an international free agent in 2021. After performing exceptionally up through Double A, he signed a landmark eight-year, $82 million contract that set a new record for the largest ever given to a player yet to make his major-league debut. If he was ranked the sixth-best prospect in the game despite all of the hype, who were the five players above him?

It’s comes as no surprise that BP’s top-ranked prospect was Jackson Holliday, Baltimore’s first overall pick from the 2022 draft. He rocketed through the minor leagues last year, going from Single A to Triple A within the span of just one season and posting impressive numbers the entire way. He’s also ranked first by MLB.com, and comes from an impressive baseball family, so it’s not a controversial take to say that he deserved the top spot.

No. 2 man Wyatt Langford has yet to receive his call-up, but that’s not to say that he won't soon be ready, as he posted a cumulative 1.157 OPS across four levels of the minor leagues in 2023--all in an incredibly short amount of time, after being drafted out of Florida in July. In the Heat Check Prospect Podcast, BP senior prospect writer Jarrett Seidler even mentioned possibly bumping Langford to the top spot over Holliday. He praised Langford for having some of the best high-end exit velocities, great contact ability, and decent swing decisions, and only voiced concern over his questionable defense. It was noted that Langford is considered by some to be a plus center fielder, while others are already relegating him to be a career designated hitter.

Third-ranked Junior Caminero, from the Rays organization, was another potential dark-horse candidate to be ranked as the top prospect, as Seidler discussed his impressive TrackMan batted-ball data, having high-end exit velocities even slightly better than Langford. Seidler even went so far as to say that Jackson Chourio doesn’t do anything demonstrably better than Caminero. BP lead prospect writer Jeffrey Paternostro agreed that while Holliday is still currently the best prospect, Caminero has the highest ceiling of all 101 prospects on the list.

When it comes to Chourio, Seidler noted that while he did make big improvements at the plate, namely hitting for contact and hitting for power, he still has plate discipline issues and has produced offensive numbers that are a level below the likes of the aforementioned Holliday, Langford and Caminero. Despite this, Seidler personally felt that Chourio was deserving of the fourth spot, putting him above Evan Carter of the Rangers and Dylan Crews of the Nationals. 

Chourio spent the vast majority of 2023 in Double A and slashed .280/.336/.467. Those are respectable numbers, but nothing to write home about. His speed remains one of his top tools, as he stole 43 bases and played excellent, rangy defense, but his bat still leaves a bit to be desired. Nonetheless, he’s still just 19 years old and a No. 6 ranking isn’t bad, especially given the stiff competition at the top. 

It might be lower than some fans were expecting, but it’s still higher than notable prospects Paul Skenes (9), Ethan Salas (12), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (20). Chourio has his best years ahead of him and it will be exciting to see him grow into his role as the new face of the Brewers franchise. For $82 million before he's even taken the field, you want a superstar, but ranking sixth in this particular collection of top prospects--with an unusual mix, among them, of upside and high-level track record--is less of a knock than it might seem to be, or than it would be in another year.

How do you feel about BP’s ranking of Chourio? Should he have been higher or lower?