Nestor Cortes Will Get a HUGE Boost from His New Outfield Defense

Sources differ widely when it comes to defensive value, but there's no question or debate about the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers were a better defensive team than the New York Yankees in 2024. In fact, you're pretty safe in characterizing the Brewers as one of the best fielding units in the league (they did win a second straight Team Gold Glove, after all), and the Yankees as one of the worst (defense did cost them the World Series, or at least a couple of games therein). That's valuable on a broad scale, but it also has interesting effects on some individuals. For instance, if you're a pitcher with an extreme tendency to give up a particular kind of contact, the portion of the defense responsible for catching balls hit in that fashion is extremely important to your pursuit of success.

Hey, now we're not just talking in vague generalities. We're talking about Nestor Cortes.

Of the 351 pitchers who reached 50 innings in the majors in 2024, Cortes had the 22nd-highest fly-ball rate. Because he pitched a lot, we can put it another way, too. Only three pitchers induced more total batted balls with a launch angle higher than 40 degrees, and only two induced more with a launch angle between 20 and 40. There's no overlap between the two groups. With 272, Cortes allowed the most batted balls launched at more than 20 degrees of any pitcher in baseball.

The main worry when a pitcher is that reliant on fly balls is, of course, home runs, and Cortes will give up a bunch of them. Although Yankee Stadium is slightly more homer-friendly than Miller Park, Cortes will give up homers at about the same rate in Milwaukee; it's just part of his game. He mitigates the damage by striking out plenty of hitters and walking very few; it's not a disqualifying vulnerability.

The secondary concern, though, is how badly things can go for a pitcher if balls hit in the air land too often, in corners or on warning tracks or in front of onrushing outfielders. That's where we need to take a close look at the differences between Cortes's old team and his new one.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Brewers outfield was 46.8 runs better than the Yankees' last year, in terms of defense. The Crew's outfielders were an aggregate 29.7 runs better than average, per Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP), the best in baseball. The Yankees were the worst, at -17.1 DRP. The Brewers allowed a .213 BABIP on batted balls with a launch angle greater than 20 degrees; the Yankees allowed a .265 mark.

Cortes, the pitcher who put the ball up in the air more than anyone else did last season, is going from the 30th-best support staff for that type of batted ball to the best. If he stays healthy and pitches a full season, that could be worth six or seven runs saved behind him. The magnitude of that effect is huge. Hardly any pitcher could benefit more significantly by a change in team, and this is before you account for any difference in how he actually pitches under the guidance of Chris Hook. With the Brewers' defense behind him, even if he had pitched exactly the same way and gotten exactly the same amount of good and bad luck, Cortes's 2024 ERA would have been 3.40, instead of 3.77.

When taking the unusual step of prioritizing a player under only short-term control, a small-market team like the Brewers has to know precisely what they're doing. They have to choose that target carefully, ideally to harmonize with something they know they teach well or augment well. Although the situation is somewhat different, the Brewers knew they could afford to acquire William Contreras and install him as their long-term catcher, because they excel at instructing and developing catchers—especially pitch-framing, the skill Contreras struggled most with before arriving. They've turned a version of the same trick, again. Cortes is a very good pitcher, but last season, he looked a bit less solid than he really was, because he had 285 pounds of 32-year-old slugger playing center field and a guy whose best defensive credential is his marvelous on-base percentage in right. He's about to take up residence in front of the best defensive outfield in the game, and it will make the Brewers look smart—because they are.