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Brewers pitchers and catchers do not report to camp for a few more days, but the first nugget regarding a major spring training storyline has already surfaced. Earlier this week, Pat Murphy revealed to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak that rehabbing pitcher Brandon Woodruff is unlikely to open the 2025 season on the active roster.
That may be disheartening news to some, especially after Woodruff spoke positively of his status weeks ago, telling MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that he was following his standard offseason training program after doctors cleared him to do so. It’s not a surprising development, though, nor is it a sign that Woodruff is behind schedule. It’s simply the first of what will be several reminders of the long and challenging road he faced after undergoing shoulder surgery and the murky prognosis that accompanied it.
Elbow injuries have become alarmingly commonplace among professional pitchers, but corrective surgeries and rehab procedures are well-researched, straightforward, and reliable. Furthermore, while the elbow absorbs plenty of stress from the torque of throwing a baseball at high velocities, it’s a hinge joint with a limited function in the throwing motion.
Shoulder operations are different. Not only are such surgeries less common, but the shoulder is a ball-and-socket joint responsible for moving the entire arm. Significant injury and repair leave more strength and range of motion to rebuild in recovery, creating a longer timeline, more potential roadblocks, and a greater risk that the pitcher cannot recapture his previous form.
The Brewers have witnessed such complications firsthand.
It took Jimmy Nelson nearly 21 months to return from what was almost a complete shoulder reconstruction. He resurfaced with a dramatically different arsenal — including a cutting four-seam fastball instead of a running one — that he couldn’t control, walking 16.2% of batters in 22 ineffective innings in 2019. Nelson found brief success as a reliever with the Los Angeles Dodgers before additional injuries ended his career.
Aaron Ashby underwent a torn labrum repair in April 2023 and later characterized his rehab as adjusting to a new shoulder. He limped to an 8.60 ERA in 91.0 minor league innings from September through the following August, running an 18.9% walk rate while pitching with diminished velocity. He did not look like himself until a late-season move to the bullpen.
Woodruff had a stronger starting point in his recovery. He required repair to only his anterior capsule during surgery instead of his entire shoulder and was more mechanically sound with better control than Ashby when healthy. Still, limited case studies of such procedures paint the probability of future success as a coin flip.
Those invested in Woodruff's comeback attempt should discern that his physical recovery and productivity will progress on different timelines. He'll be healthy enough to pitch sometime in 2025, but his performance may take another year (or longer) to stabilize. Woodruff estimated he won’t have a reliable grasp on his post-surgery stuff until the second half of this upcoming season. If he must reinvent his approach without elite velocity, it will take time.
The ZiPS projection system is optimistic about his rate output, forecasting a 3.44 ERA in 81 innings, but it’s unaware of the context surrounding his comeback attempt. If Woodruff approaches 100 innings as a capable back-of-the-rotation starter, it will constitute a successful comeback season in light of his journey, even if he may not view it that way.
As one of the fiercest competitors in the Milwaukee clubhouse, Woodruff will be chomping at the bit to return to a big-league mound. The Brewers already established offseason guardrails for him, including no velocity readings, and will hand down more in the coming weeks. He may spend more time on the backfields and in minor-league games than in front of a public audience on the main field.
Woodruff's return to the big-league mound will be one of the top stories in Brewers camp. It may take a bit longer than hoped, and he’s unlikely to be the pitcher he was before surgery, especially in 2025. Patience will be key.
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