Including Rhys Hoskins, How Is the Improved Brewers Lineup Projected to Perform in 2024?

After making their first major addition of the offseason and signing Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million deal, I was curious to see how an impact bat could change things quantitatively. Last year, the Brewers' offense left much to be desired and was among the weakest in MLB. In 2023, the Brewers slashed a cumulative .240/.319/.385 for an OPS of .704, placing them 23rd among all teams. 

To see how things would change heading into 2024, I pulled the FanGraphs projections for every player on the depth chart (yes, even Chris Roller, who has a grand total of seven projected plate appearances). I calculated the team’s weighted average slash line. The results were pretty interesting.

The team’s slash line improves to .248/.328/.414, with a notable increase in slugging percentage over the previous year. The estimated weighted average OPS of .741 would have placed them at 14th in offense in 2023, right between the Orioles/Padres/Cardinals (all tied for 13th) and the Mariners. Overall, the team is projected to have a league-average wRC+, but with the strength of the pitching staff, it might still be enough to claim the NL Central once more.

This increase is primarily from projected improvements from Willy Adames, who had a relatively disappointing .717 OPS in 2023 and increased production at first base from Hoskins. Last year, the Brewers had the third-worst offensive production out of their first basemen, who cumulatively posted a .681 OPS. Hoskins isn’t expected to return to his full form immediately after a year-long, injury-induced layoff. Still, his 115 wRC+ is undoubtedly better than whatever the team had last year before trading for Carlos Santana. 

There’s also a big projected improvement from Brice Turang, who posted a .585 OPS and 60 wRC+ over 448 plate appearances in 2023. If he can get up to a .691 OPS as projected, it’ll make his excellent glove stand out even more without the offensive tradeoff. In fact, for all players who will be seen as consistent starters, there isn’t much of a gaping hole within the projections. 

ZiPS sees Andruw Monasterio splitting time with Tyler Black and Owen Miller at the hot corner, which, along with his weak hitting splits against right-handed pitching, explains the decrease in projected playtime. Black is not yet listed on the depth chart, so I didn't include him in these calculations, but if you're curious, he's projected to slash .239/.342/.395 over 322 plate appearances.

Garrett Mitchell will also see decreased playtime due to Jackson Chourio joining the outfield mix. Speaking of Chourio, he’s projected to get a slow start to his career with a slightly below-average wRC+, but at just 19 years old, don’t fret. He’ll probably start posting and hitting solid numbers by the time he can legally drink his first Wisconsin Old Fashioned.

Projections should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it seems like Milwaukee is in good shape heading into 2024. The Rhys Hoskins signing addressed a major gap in the lineup, and with a bumper crop of prospects ready to bring their talents to the next level, they might be legitimate contenders for the next several years.

What do you think of the projections? Which players do you think are most likely to deviate from their estimates?