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    3 Ways Rhys Hoskins is a Perfect Fit for the Brewers


    Matthew Trueblood

    After the Brewers made their first real splash of the winter Tuesday night, let's discuss why he's such a perfect fit for their needs.

    Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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    It's easy to point to the power Rhys Hoskins has demonstrated, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, and say that he fits with the Brewers. He does. That right-handed thump is, in broad strokes, plenty of justification for the two-year, $34-million deal to which the team signed Hoskins Tuesday night. By digging just a little deeper, though, we can see that the perfection of the fit runs even deeper.

    He Kills Left-Handed Pitchers
    The extent to which the Brewers struggled against southpaws last season has been somewhat oversold. As a team, they hit .250/.326/.406, which was very close to exactly average work. In fact, Milwaukee hitters were better against lefties than against righties. While their ineptitude against them in previous seasons was real, it became an unsupported narrative in 2023.

    That doesn't mean that Hoskins's power against lefties won't have tremendous value, though. He batted .286/.387/.558 off lefthanders in 2022, and has consistently dominated them throughout his career. Importantly, he steps into a mix at first base and DH that previously included almost solely left-handed hitters (Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Oliver Dunn, and Tyler Black, most notably). Having the ability to spell him against tough righties and to ensure that none of those lefty swingers needs to face a lefty more often than necessary is a great boost for new skipper Pat Murphy.

    He Hammers Flat-VAA Fastballs
    Not long ago, I wrote about the Brewers' difficulties hitting fastballs with a flat vertical approach angle (VAA), a pitch characteristic getting more attention with each passing season and one that helps determine the effectiveness of four-seamers as much as velocity or spin rate do. Last year, the Crew couldn't handle heaters with a flat VAA, and it cost them, because that trend is becoming fairly pervasive.export (57).png

    Hoskins can heal what ails them in this regard, too. He's slugged .536 against four-seamers with a VAA of -4.5 degrees or flatter, and has whiffed on just 25.7 percent of swings against them, since the start of 2021. The former mark is well above-average; the latter one is well below the league average. Hoskins hits high, riding fastballs hard, without missing on them often. 

    It's important to diversify the skill sets within a lineup, and Hoskins helps the Brewers do that. He not only brings huge power, but does it with a swing path and a certain kind of zone coverage that none of his new teammates offered. He instantly becomes the best power hitter on the team, and while he does have his weaknesses at the plate, he also has unique strengths. Being able to handle that fastball with extra hop on it and not chase it far above the zone has value, especially to a team full of guys who couldn't do so.

    He's Part of an All-In Approach
    Look, the 2024 Brewers are no juggernaut. All winter, though, national baseball writers fed speculation that the team would essentially be disassembled, with Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, or both sent packing via trade. There were financial constraints from ownership that kept the front office from making major outlays, instead keeping them to things like retaining Wade Miley and signing Joe Ross and Eric Haase.

    This move charts a new course. It might beget more moves, or not, but since Hoskins has the right to opt out of the second year of the deal if he prefers, this move itself sets the team up to go for it in 2024. Burnes is still here. So is Adames. Burnes is overwhelmingly likely to be gone after this season, and Adames is unlikely to sign an extension, so bringing him back is only a slightly more realistic long shot. Christian Yelich is already 32 years old. William Contreras hits arbitration eligibility next winter, at which time Devin Williams will only be one year from free agency.

    That doesn't mean that the Crew will need to plunge into a rebuild after 2024. The Jackson Chourio extension helps them do some long-term planning, and they still have Yelich and Contreras, as well as Freddy Peralta, around whom to build. The farm system is strong. A small step back in 2025 wouldn't be surprising, though, which is why this coming season is sacred. Matt Arnold and company treated it that way by bringing in Hoskins, whom they hope can get them back to the postseason and pointed toward a pennant.

    What do you want to see the Brewers do next? Do you think Hoskins's arrival spells the departure of any of the previously projected positional contributors? Let's talk about the Crew's newest bopper.

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    Hoskins gives us a nice bridge into this year and possibly the next.  A lineup changer for sure.

    The team still needs to improve its hitting beyond this, and I'm still waiting for that improvement to be brought in with a Burnes trade.  Looking unlikely for the right now.  If he's moved in July it could be for not ready prospects.  I really like a trade with Baltimore right now bringing us a young bat at 3rd who is ready but blocked, but it takes two to tango.  Sometimes it takes 3.

    • Like 1
    54 minutes ago, Trax said:

    Hoskins gives us a nice bridge into this year and possibly the next.  A lineup changer for sure.

    The team still needs to improve its hitting beyond this, and I'm still waiting for that improvement to be brought in with a Burnes trade.  Looking unlikely for the right now.  If he's moved in July it could be for not ready prospects.  I really like a trade with Baltimore right now bringing us a young bat at 3rd who is ready but blocked, but it takes two to tango.  Sometimes it takes 3.

    I believe Baltimore has stated that their top 5 prospects are untouchable, which would include Mayo (3B).  That said, i don't think its necessary to trade burnes at this point.  Would we get a bigger return than draft pick compensation?  Certainly, but then you're creating a massive hole in the rotation.  Look at it this way... we are set up to receive ample draft pick compensation with Burnes and Adames hitting free agency.  If Hoskins opts out, we could QO him.  Not to mention, there is also the Prospect Promition Incentive... not sure if Chourio qualifies for that now that he has a ML contract, but Tyler Black could.  Finally, if this season is seen as the all-in year, the Brewers still could deal Devin Williams next offseason for a decent return.  

     

    Not to mention all these guys could be gone by the trade deadline depending how this season plays out.  

     

    Loooong story short, I don't think we need to trade from our Major League club to acquire the pieces required to go all in.  Maybe Matt Chapman will settle for a two year deal too?

    • Like 1
    9 minutes ago, old hickory said:

    I believe Baltimore has stated that their top 5 prospects are untouchable, which would include Mayo (3B).  That said, i don't think its necessary to trade burnes at this point.  Would we get a bigger return than draft pick compensation?  Certainly, but then you're creating a massive hole in the rotation.  Look at it this way... we are set up to receive ample draft pick compensation with Burnes and Adames hitting free agency.  If Hoskins opts out, we could QO him.  Not to mention, there is also the Prospect Promition Incentive... not sure if Chourio qualifies for that now that he has a ML contract, but Tyler Black could.  Finally, if this season is seen as the all-in year, the Brewers still could deal Devin Williams next offseason for a decent return.  

     

    Not to mention all these guys could be gone by the trade deadline depending how this season plays out.  

     

    Loooong story short, I don't think we need to trade from our Major League club to acquire the pieces required to go all in.  Maybe Matt Chapman will settle for a two year deal too?

    Wow, imagine it if we could bring in Chapman.   My fear is we'll be just hanging on by a thread in July for contention so won't deal Burnes or Adames at all.  



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