Should Logan Henderson Start in Place of the Injured Tobias Myers?

A day after Pat Murphy designated Logan Henderson as a potential rotation replacement for an injured Tobias Myers, he gave a harsh public evaluation of the 23-year-old’s three-inning start in Peoria against the San Diego Padres.

“That’s not acceptable,” Murphy said. “That’s not acceptable to walk four people. That’s not who he is. He’s got to be better than that.”

The manager was not wrong. Henderson walked just 4.7% of opponents in the minor leagues last year. Filling the strike zone is one of his strengths. But while the free passes drew Murphy’s ire on Monday, it was another foible that indicated Henderson needs more development time in Nashville before the Brewers can seriously consider him for big-league starts.

The right-hander has gotten excellent mileage from a great fastball and changeup combination in the minors. Last year in Triple A, his four-seamer averaged 17.3 inches of induced vertical break—often reaching an elite 20 inches—from a below-average release height of 5.28 feet. That makes the ball difficult to get on top of, yielding a 29.3% whiff rate against the pitch. His real bread and butter is a plus changeup that averaged 17.9 inches of arm-side run and falls off the table as it nears the plate; it held Triple-A opponents to a .193 xwOBA with a 32.6% whiff rate.

To be a big-league starter, though, Henderson needs a viable third pitch with glove-side movement. He mixed in a cutter in the minors and has added a slider this spring.

Both offerings have been inconsistent. They looked passible in Henderson’s previous outing at a Statcast-equipped park on March 5th, but backed up on him a few times in his start this week.

It’s understandable that Murphy would propose a strike-thrower with two highly effective pitches as a potential substitute for Myers. However, his absence seems likely to be brief, and the Brewers have several length options (with higher floors) who should be ahead of Henderson on the depth chart. Tyler Alexander could slide into the fourth rotation spot for a few turns, with Connor Thomas, Elvin Rodriguez, and Chad Patrick among the additional candidates.

The Brewers don’t need Henderson yet, and he has not quite found the elusive third pitch he’ll need to navigate big-league lineups multiple times within an outing. He may surface in the bullpen at some point this year, but for now, more seasoning in Nashville is the best thing for his development.