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    The Depth Of Jackson Chourio's Toolset Shone Vividly On Opening Weekend


    Jake McKibbin

    The Milwaukee Brewers' über prospect’s MVP potential comes from his latent power, but his circumjacent tools--elite speed, great defense and impressive strike-zone coverage--were on full display this weekend. The floor is higher than most predicted, and his value is even higher as a result.

    Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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    While Jackson Chourio’s surface-level statistics look just fine, it was his speed that really shone in producing a 5-12 weekend, with a stolen base and a double. Some of the underlying batted-ball metrics, however, aren’t quite so hot (small sample size alert here):

    • 79 mph average exit velocity
    • -11.1° launch angle
    • .120 xBA
    • 77.8% ground ball rate

    The long and short of it is that Chourio didn’t obliterate the baseball in the batter's box. This isn’t an indictment of Chourio, though. In fact, it’s a positive. It shows he can grind his way to contributing offensively even when he’s not squaring the ball up, something many heavily hyped phenoms have struggled with in recent seasons. It’s unrealistic to expect the bat to catch fire before the All-Star break, though given how quickly Chourio has adapted at every other level he’s reached, it could happen. When he does figure that side of things out and start accessing his power more frequently, his stock will skyrocket.

    It's important to keep in mind that, until the timing clicks as a hitter, there will be ups and downs in Chourio's numbers, and his current .556 BABIP is hilariously unsustainable. Due to his speed, that figure will likely be higher than most, though, and it's that point that hammers home how impactful he can be even on an off day.

    Just How Influential Was He On Opening Weekend?
    A walk and stolen base to start your MLB career is a great start for someone who chased a lot in the minors in 2023. That's what Chourio did in the first inning Friday. From then on, that speed really showed, as he beat out multiple infield dribblers and did this for his first RBI--on what, for almost any other runner, would be an easy double play:

    Infielders are going to have to hustle with Chourio, who may be the fastest player on the Brewers (which is saying something, on a team that features Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and Garrett Mitchell, to name but a few). Fresh off a 40-steal season in the minors, he’s going to cause havoc on the basepaths. For a Brewers team that prides itself on defensive abilities, however, this is arguably of more importance:

    Coming into the season, Chourio had raised some questions during spring training that perhaps his defense wasn’t as elite as some scouts had thought. While some of the routes he took to fly balls were slightly unconventional, he silenced his critics on the first day, with two magnificent catches (one of which is the one above) in an environment where wind was playing havoc with long fly balls. Chourio looked great, and his speed made up for some of the route issues that he will iron out with time and experience in the outfield.

    MLB Has a History of Sheltering Promising Young Players
    Since 1999, there have been a number of big helium prospects coming up the big leagues--even before the bat was ready--on the theory that their defense can add significant value anyway. Here are some of the rookies involved:

    Of particular note here are the 2018 Yankees and 2015 Cubs. Both of these teams had playoff aspirations and still made room for young players with a solid defensive floor who were still developing as hitters. Torres ended up posting a 121 WRC+ in 2018, and ended up moving up out of the eighth and ninth spots as the season wore on, but he began it under the aegis of the rest of the Yankees lineup. Russell was a below-average hitter, but one of the best defensive middle infielders in baseball in 2015. 

    It was this weekend that the depth of Jackson Chourio’s tool bag hit home. Every player goes through ups and down in their production at the plate, even the best of them. Chourio’s raw speed will allow him to contribute to the team during those down periods, a rare sight in today’s game. He’s a true five-tool player, and when those tools all work in tandem, the league had better be ready.

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    Brandon Sproat

    Milwaukee Brewers - MLB, RHP
    Sproat had a rough first appearance in a Brewers uniform (3 IP, 7 ER, 3 HR). On Thursday, he gave up one run on 4 hits and a walk over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out six Blue Jays batters.

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    Jason Wang
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    Jackson Chourio is a month over the age of 20 and has so much time to build strength to increase his power. The same goes for his fielding, especially since he hasn't really played much right field in his minor league career. 

    Not everyone can have an age-20 season like Mike Trout or Alex Rodriguez but what matters is the long con anyway. In their ZiPS projections for the Brewers, Szymborski even stated that Chourio was projected to be about league-average offensively to start but have immense future value. 

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