Tobias Myers's Redesigned Changeup Can Help Him (and the Brewers) No Matter When or Where He Pitches

Tobias Myers's changeup was a key factor behind his breakout in 2024. Here was a pitcher whose fastball could survive at the top of the strike zone, thanks to big induced vertical break (IVB, or "Rise") and some velocity gains, but was quite hittable if it dropped down in the strike zone. His high arm slot meant that the IVB didn't play as well as the raw stuff numbers might suggest, and he needed something to keep hitters off that pitch.

Last year, he played around with a cutter, but that offering struggled to miss bats and had a high expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against it. The changeup was a very strong offering for him, as well, but he only used it 11% of the time; he struggled to command it with any authority. It was a unicorn shape, almost rising as it approached the plate. That meant it tunnelled very well with his four-seam fastball, while being around 11 miles per hour slower out of the hand. His profile was similar to that of Lucas Giolito, at his best, with the combination of a high slot on a rising fastball and a changeup that used velocity separation instead of movement.

If we look at Pitch Profiler's dynamic dead zone map, which contrasts the actual movement of the pitch (solid-colored circles) with the expected movement based on spin and release angle, we can see how that pitch deviates from the hitter's expectation.

Myers has quite a unique arsenal, in that his pitches all deviate quite significantly from that perception. The four-seam fastball cuts a lot; his curveball is straighter, but with more depth; and the changeup gets an unusual amount of ride. That being said, only two of his pitches last season were classified as having above-average Stuff+ ratings in Jeremy Maschino's model, while the rest graded out quite poorly:

The ideal solution this year would have been for Myers to continue developing that feel for his changeup in the offseason, using it more in games this season and reducing the cutter usage. The problem is, that feel just never materialized. He threw his changeup just 3.3% of the time early in the season before being demoted to the minor leagues.

When he reached Triple A, up until June 1, Myers threw it just 6.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone just one out of every six times he threw it. He had no control of the pitch, and despite great results when he did elicit swings, without feel, it was only a supplementary offering.

Enter: the split-change. Myers has found an immediate comfort with his new changeup variant, and it's really showing. Since returning to the major-league club in July, Myers has thrown his changeup 26.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone 56.2% of the time.

Usually, the correlation would be that more in-zone pitches would equal fewer swings and misses and more damage, especially if that pitch is thrown more often. Not in this case, though, with Myers producing a lower xwOBA on contact and a higher whiff rate so far since his return to the staff than he did throughout 2024. Yes, it's a small sample size of not even 50 pitches, but it's clear that Myers has found something here.

He's managed to retain a similar shape as 2024, with high induced vertical break for a changeup, but he has killed a little more of the spin and created more deviation from the expected movement path. 

The results put this new version of the change in the mix with some of the best offspeed pitches in baseball. It's a huge weapon that allows him to keep hitters off-balance, and off of his fastball, while opening up a plethora of sequencing options that he's comfortable using to both left- and right-handed hitters. He's so comfortable, in fact, that his last two games have seen usage rates of over 40%, becoming his main pitch in lieu of the four-seam fastball.

This is the Tobias Myers we caught glimpses of in 2024, but with a dominant non-fastball in his arsenal, the next step might be to move him from the multi-inning relief role he's filled recently to more of a short-burst, high-leverage gig, as needed. He's becoming more promising as a playoff weapon, the more he shows that that changeup can dominate.

On the other hand, with a crowded stretch in the schedule here and starting depth always worth worrying about, the Brewers may try to stretch Myers out and bring him back to round out their rotation on the expanded rosters come September. That could be part of a plan to go to six starters. His recent changeup in tow, he's a great arm in any of a few potential roles.

What do you think of Myers's changeup? Have you been impressed with his recent outings? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!