Tobias Myers's Redesigned Changeup Can Help Him (and the Brewers) No Matter When or Where He Pitches

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Tobias Myers's changeup was a key factor behind his breakout in 2024. Here was a pitcher whose fastball could survive at the top of the strike zone, thanks to big induced vertical break (IVB, or "Rise") and some velocity gains, but was quite hittable if it dropped down in the strike zone. His high arm slot meant that the IVB didn't play as well as the raw stuff numbers might suggest, and he needed something to keep hitters off that pitch.

Last year, he played around with a cutter, but that offering struggled to miss bats and had a high expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against it. The changeup was a very strong offering for him, as well, but he only used it 11% of the time; he struggled to command it with any authority. It was a unicorn shape, almost rising as it approached the plate. That meant it tunnelled very well with his four-seam fastball, while being around 11 miles per hour slower out of the hand. His profile was similar to that of Lucas Giolito, at his best, with the combination of a high slot on a rising fastball and a changeup that used velocity separation instead of movement.

If we look at Pitch Profiler's dynamic dead zone map, which contrasts the actual movement of the pitch (solid-colored circles) with the expected movement based on spin and release angle, we can see how that pitch deviates from the hitter's expectation.

Myers has quite a unique arsenal, in that his pitches all deviate quite significantly from that perception. The four-seam fastball cuts a lot; his curveball is straighter, but with more depth; and the changeup gets an unusual amount of ride. That being said, only two of his pitches last season were classified as having above-average Stuff+ ratings in Jeremy Maschino's model, while the rest graded out quite poorly:

The ideal solution this year would have been for Myers to continue developing that feel for his changeup in the offseason, using it more in games this season and reducing the cutter usage. The problem is, that feel just never materialized. He threw his changeup just 3.3% of the time early in the season before being demoted to the minor leagues.

When he reached Triple A, up until June 1, Myers threw it just 6.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone just one out of every six times he threw it. He had no control of the pitch, and despite great results when he did elicit swings, without feel, it was only a supplementary offering.

Enter: the split-change. Myers has found an immediate comfort with his new changeup variant, and it's really showing. Since returning to the major-league club in July, Myers has thrown his changeup 26.5% of the time, while landing it in the strike zone 56.2% of the time.

Usually, the correlation would be that more in-zone pitches would equal fewer swings and misses and more damage, especially if that pitch is thrown more often. Not in this case, though, with Myers producing a lower xwOBA on contact and a higher whiff rate so far since his return to the staff than he did throughout 2024. Yes, it's a small sample size of not even 50 pitches, but it's clear that Myers has found something here.

He's managed to retain a similar shape as 2024, with high induced vertical break for a changeup, but he has killed a little more of the spin and created more deviation from the expected movement path. 

The results put this new version of the change in the mix with some of the best offspeed pitches in baseball. It's a huge weapon that allows him to keep hitters off-balance, and off of his fastball, while opening up a plethora of sequencing options that he's comfortable using to both left- and right-handed hitters. He's so comfortable, in fact, that his last two games have seen usage rates of over 40%, becoming his main pitch in lieu of the four-seam fastball.

This is the Tobias Myers we caught glimpses of in 2024, but with a dominant non-fastball in his arsenal, the next step might be to move him from the multi-inning relief role he's filled recently to more of a short-burst, high-leverage gig, as needed. He's becoming more promising as a playoff weapon, the more he shows that that changeup can dominate.

On the other hand, with a crowded stretch in the schedule here and starting depth always worth worrying about, the Brewers may try to stretch Myers out and bring him back to round out their rotation on the expanded rosters come September. That could be part of a plan to go to six starters. His recent changeup in tow, he's a great arm in any of a few potential roles.

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What do you think of Myers's changeup? Have you been impressed with his recent outings? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[tmwiese55]

I've thought he's generally looked good in his recent callups and then you see reports like this about how he's been in AAA.  Makes me think a descent route from here could be to have him take Miz's spot and start moving Miz into a 1-2 inning reliever role in the Burns/Hader mold of 2018.  His innings are going to have to be limited anyway, and Tobias seems in a good spot to start.     Wonder if the discussion will start if Miz struggles again next time out

Side note: I still don't get why they didn't let him try to finish Sunday's game

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Makes me think a descent route from here could be to have him take Miz's spot and start moving Miz into a 1-2 inning reliever role in the Burns/Hader mold of 2018. 

I would think they'd try going to a 6 man and just limit him to 4-5IP the rest of the way. 

When he's throwing strikes, he's still unhittable. He was humming along vs the Cubs and walked 3 guys. Then had to give in. Same thing the previous start. HBP, 3 walks. Guys aren't really hitting him, he just needs to settle back in. 

I'm not that worried about him. He'll get right again and... then probably be on a short leash in the playoffs. 

Wouldn't mind seeing Myers back in there, but... that pitching depth is dwindling. I wonder if Wichrowski or Hardin could come up and get some innings out of the pen or if we just bring Patrick up and start looking for chunks instead of slotting guys in. 

DL Hall and Henderson being hurt-hurts the Brewers. Two veterans who seemed like very important pitchers come October and I'm not sure where either stands. Henderson seemed like HE was destined for that Burnes, Woodruff type role. I don't think you're going to see "the Hader role" again but the closest would be Uribe if we had a SU man, which is why I was hoping if we made a big trade and gave up a lot, Pratt, Quero, Henderson, one of them and then 2-3 more good prospects,  it'd be for...Duran, Felix Bautista, etc...and then Castro or O'Hearn. But...we didn't. 

 

So hopefully we get those guys back and then you get what you get out of Mis. When he starts losing it, you go to the pen.