Why Janson Junk Deserves Another Shot in the Brewers Rotation

Thanks to their off day on Thursday, the Brewers have the option to skip Wade Miley's vacated rotation spot this weekend. Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, and Freddy Peralta can all start on normal rest, and Corbin Burnes would even be ready to go on Monday, after the team travels from Tampa Bay to Houston to continue a grueling road trip. Instead, though, what they should so is recall right-handed starter Janson Junk to make Sunday's start, sliding Peralta and Burnes back and giving Junk a chance to earn a permanent place in the starting corps.

The numbers have gotten ugly for Junk with Triple-A Nashville this month, as he's running an ERA over 7.00 in three starts. In April, however, he had a sparkling 1.31 ERA in the minors, and he gutted out a respectable showing (although one that made plain what he still needs to work on) when called upon to make an emergency start in place of Brandon Woodruff with the parent club. More importantly, unlike Colin Rea (the other credentialed big-leaguer on the 40-man roster), he has two above-average big-league pitches, in his fastball and his sweeper. Unlike Robert Gasser (the other guy with some prospect sheen to him who has been with Nashville all season), he wouldn't require the team to make yet another messy 40-man roster move, and he's throwing strikes much more consistently than is Gasser.

Alas, Junk does have some notable weaknesses, which is why it was Rea who got Woodruff's turns in the rotation before Houser made it back from his preseason malady. The erstwhile Angels northpaw doesn't throw his curve for strikes with any regularity, and his changeup comes out of just enough lower a release point to give it away a bit. As a result, left-handed batters can sit on his fastball and square it up too often, because his sweeper is not a pitch with much value against opposite-handed opponents. 

Yet, the pieces of a solid big-league starter are all present. That fastball isn't fast enough to overpower hitters when they know it's coming, sitting around 92 miles per hour, but it has plus vertical movement and he can command it at the top of the zone. He comes from an extreme angle, working at the third-base side of the pitching rubber. That makes his heater and sweeper especially deceptive, and it's the right place to allow him to find the zone with his big curveball.

In his brief MLB trials to date, and even in Triple A this month, he's just not able to make that curve competitive on a consistent enough basis, That can change any time, though, and he really only needs to land the pitch a couple of times per game. The fastball and sweeper can carry him, if he can make lefties respect any other pitch even a little bit. Recently, he hasn't been able to get his changeup down. That's a problem, in general, but Junk has the kind of fastball and approach angle to survive with an elevated changeup, the same way Lucas Giolito did at his best. The problem has been that Junk hasn't been throwing the changeup for strikes at all. It's been above the zone, or missing to the arm side of the plate. 

It would make some sense to try realigning him. The Brewers could move him over toward the middle of the mound, giving the changeup more room to move laterally while still at least looking like a strike. That might make it harder for him to throw the curve for strikes, but he can survive without that pitch if he needs to. 

Whatever adjustments the team wants to make, though, they should have Junk take a turn in the big-league rotation this weekend, then work with him to see how he can stick there until the injured incumbents make their way back--or until the front office can find another starter on the trade market in July, if it comes to that.