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    Why the Brewers Don't Wait Until the Regular Season to Start Stealing Bases


    Jason Wang

    Spring training has already given us a glimpse into their plan to cause a ruckus on the basepaths this season.

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    When you think of a “scrappy” baseball player, what do you imagine? Probably a guy no taller than 5-foot-9, who goes after every batted ball on defense and runs like the wind on offense. It’s a term that actually describes the Brewers pretty well. They’ve become known for exceeding expectations year in and year out, without having to break the bank, and much of that is due to the “scrappiness” of their roster. With two consecutive team Gold Glove Awards, their defense is already best-in-class. Now, it seems that baserunning has come under the microscope.

    Milwaukee currently leads all of spring training in stolen bases, with 27. They also took the top spot last year, with a final total of 45. This enthusiasm to snag an extra 90 feet is interesting, given that these are exhibition games and running the bases can sometimes lead to more serious injury, but it’s clear that the organization is placing considerable value on getting as many reps as possible before the start of the regular season.

    Even more intriguing is the team’s tendency to attempt a steal of third base with two outs, going against the grain of not making the final out at third base. It's easy to see why most teams don't make those tries. Most of the time, most players will score from second base on a single to the outfield, anyway. The tradeoff is that it can be an easier steal, given the unorthodox nature of the action, and it opens the door to scoring off of an infield hit, a fielding error, or even a wild pitch. On the surface, it may seem like risky business, but it’s clear that these are calculated risks, rather than decisions made with reckless abandon.

    When asked about whether stealing bases is a point of focus for the team this spring, Pat Murphy said:

    Quote

    I think you’ve gotta do it. Everybody’s got to get a chance to do it. We're not trying to run when we're up 9-0, or 8-0. I think everybody knows that. We're not trying to rile anybody up in spring training. We've just gotta work on stuff. Work on leads, and work on doing it, you know?

    More than anything, it seems like the team is getting used to learning the subtle nuances of stealing. Especially given how young the team is on average, learning these small but impactful aspects of the game is what separates the wheat from the chaff in the big leagues. 

    And with the speed on the roster, why shouldn’t they? Brice Turang placed third in stolen bases in 2024, snagging 50 bags, and he seems to be setting the standard for the other speedsters on the team with four other Brewers stealing 20 or more bases last year. In 2025, the lineup is poised to steal even more. Sal Frelick and Caleb Durbin are starting to come into their own, and even Christian Yelich, who is returning from injury, is planning to partake. It'll be a slow and steady ramp-up for him, and he isn't planning on taking any wild slides or head-first dives, especially in spring training. He did steal 28 bags in 2023 and was on pace to break his personal single-season record of 30 before going down with a back injury last year.

    When asked about whether this increase in aggression will translate over into the regular season, Murphy had this to say:

    Quote

    I think it’s opportunity. You can stop the running game; it can be stopped. So then you’re running into outs. Now you’re counterproductive. You’ve just gotta take advantage when you can, and like I’ve said many times, the threat of the steal sometimes brings about good things, too.

    Of course, spring training doesn’t always translate to the regular season. In fact, it doesn’t really translate at all. The sample sizes are much smaller; the focus of each game is primarily to see live pitching; and teams aren’t trying to win, as much as they are trying to just work on things. Taking big leads and stealing in a controlled environment where the downside risk is negligible might not be a perfect indicator of what’s to come in 2025. Furthermore, speed by itself isn’t enough to be successful in the sport of baseball, especially since you need to get on base to be able to really use it. 

    However, it’s no secret that Milwaukee possesses a rare combination of on-base ability with speed in the lineup, and they’ve been known to use it. They stole a combined 217 bases in 2024, just six fewer than the MLB-leading Nationals and a massive increase over the 129 they stole in 2023. 

    Aggression on the basepaths is up across the board, and much of this is a consequence of the new rules introduced by MLB for the 2023 season. The pitch timer (complete with limits on pickoff throws by pitchers) and the enlarged bases made the whole process less risky and more beneficial. For the Brewers, getting a runner from first base into scoring position via small ball could be a substitute for the lack of power in the lineup. With the squad’s current abilities and mindset, expect big things from them heading into next year.

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    I like to think of stealing bases as SB-3*CS. That way, anyone stealing at over 75% success rate is helping the team score runs. By that measure, I think the 2024 Brewers may have been the best team in MLB history at base stealing. 

    • Like 1
    26 minutes ago, Doug B said:

    I like to think of stealing bases as SB-3*CS. That way, anyone stealing at over 75% success rate is helping the team score runs. By that measure, I think the 2024 Brewers may have been the best team in MLB history at base stealing. 

    Pretty close to it. 

    According to this leaderboard on FanGraphs the 2024 Brewers +14.4 wSB (weighted stolen base runs) was the 12th highest mark among 1,154 individual full team seasons over the last 40 years, with only the 2007 Mets (+15.0 wSB), 2007 Phillies (+14.1 wSB), 2013 Royals (+13.2 wSB), 2008 Phillies (+12.8 wSB), and 2024 Reds (+12.6 wSB) in the same neighborhood among recent-ish teams.

     



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