Why Willy Adames's Slump Might Be (Finally) Ending

6 minutes ago, mtsportsfan said:

Boy , I hope you are right ! Because right now he is a dead spot in the lineup! Absolute rally killer ! Does CC need him to hit under .200 to move him down in the lineup. Time to take the pressure off and move him down to the 6 or 7 spot .

Yeah he's looked a little more iffy the last 25 plate appearances or so, but he's never going to be consistent, he's a streaky hitter at his best. I think early in the season he was very vocal about his walk rate, and that led to him being too passive on pitches in the zone, since he's become more aggressive again he's fallen on some hard luck but I've a feeling we'll get a two week stretch of hot hitting from him, maybe more.

A couple of good homers will probably take the stress off his shoulders somewhat too, but he's definitely been better as of late and in hoping for his sake that he can burst out

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

An ascending Adames in the box the rest of this year and this team runs away with the central.

Absolutely. Adames and Tellez getting hot makes this offense top 10 instantly. Adames and Tellez cold make it bottom 10

This is all going to come down to a hot stretch and who makes the most of it now and in September 

31 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Most of the damage Adames has made offensively over the last month was in early July before the AS break when he was riding one of his 2 week hot streaks.  Since the AS break (20 games, so not a teensy sample) he is hitting 0.160 with about a .500 OPS.  

Sorry, this article doesn't have me very optimistic Adames is suddenly going to carry this team offensively down the stretch.

He did find his straps pre AS break absolutely, but he has always been up and down.

I think his expected stats do tell a story however and he's clearly been unlucky, especially in July

26 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah I am going to agree with Fear the Chorizo here. Since the All-Star break Adames has a .306 xwOBA in 86 PA with a 31% K-rate and from the All-Star break to the end of July, he had a .311 xwOBA with a 31% K-rate. Him having a great start to July doesn't mean that much considering he's been bad since the All-Star break both on the expected side, on the results side, and on the eye test. He's consistently putting up some of the worst AB on the team right now. I certainly hope you are right that the slump is finally ending, but nothing I am seeing from a stats perspective or eye test perspective leads me to believe the slump is ending.

There have been some brighter spots too where we've seen lots of line drive outs as well

To play devil's advocate on myself, the one really worrying stat is the cratering hard hit rate compared to 2021 and 2022. I'm okay with him having a javy Baez style approach, as long as he mashes every now and then. He's always been streaky and mercurial, and I think it's hard to say he hasn't had misfortune with his expected stats to this point.

He has been piss poor the last four to five games mind, so maybe my timing is slightly off with this article, but interestingly he's averaging 95mph + exit velocities in the very SSS so far in August

Anyway I digress, I think there's signs he could go on a run for a few weeks, or he could continue to mire in a slump, but certainly wouldn't be surprised either way. He's a little lost at the plate but a little confidence boost and Boom

10 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Odd article, I don't see anything that leads me to believe change is coming.

Sadly, I think Adames has lost all trade clout, and we just might be stuck with him until the end of next season.

It's based around his stats in July, I think they do show he was unlucky over the course of the month

I saw a lot of strange hard hit outs that just weren't finding grass which lead me to investigate the month as a whole when I found the background stats. I'm not saying he's going to have a .900 OPS to finish the season, but I also don't think he's a .600 OPS guy and deserved considerably better than the results he got last month

Did the background numbers surprise you?

You know what's the biggest change from 2022 to 2023? 

In 2022, the pitch he hit best compared to league average was the slider (10 run value) and he had a .321 xwOBA.

In 2023, the pitch he hit worst compare to league average was the slider (-8 run value) and he has a .266 xwOBA.

The unfortunate reality is that I know nothing about hitting and all I do is read numbers, but I'm curious as to how this happened so quickly.