William Contreras's Bat Speed is Back, but Not His Power. Why?

It's hard to pinpoint just what's missing for William Contreras, at this point. A month ago, it seemed obvious: his fractured finger was sapping his ability to swing the bat at the speed to which he's accustomed. His exit velocity was down accordingly, and although he was gamely putting together good at-bats and forcing pitchers to fill up the zone to get him out, he had lost any semblance of the danger he posed at the plate throughout 2023 and 2024. His strikeout rate is a career-best 18.2%, and his walk rate is a downright elite 14.4%, but he's largely been a singles hitter.

Now, though, he's gotten the lightning back. Of the 12 games this year in which he's averaged bat speed higher than 75 miles per hour, half have come since June 23. He can swing fast again, on a consistent basis. You'd expect to see a corresponding rise in production—but alas, that expectation would be confounded. In his final 100 plate appearances of the first half, Contreras slugged .329. He also walked more than he struck out; he's fighting to create value. If his power is going to be this stubbornly absent, though, it's going to be nearly impossible for him to be an above-average hitter over the grind of the second half.

Troublingly, it looks like Contreras has generated his restored bat speed not by having his finger heal and the full strength and confidence in that hand return, but by adjusting his stance and stride to draw extra bat speed from his powerful lower half. Compare this clip of Contreras from mid-May:

to this one, from the series against the Dodgers last week:

By drawing back earlier and lunging forward a bit more, Contreras can create more sheer force through the zone than he could even a month or two ago. However, that only pays off if you can deliver the barrel to the ball. The above is a good example of a swing that might have been packed with plenty of power, but on which he barely got a piece. It still turned into a hit, but this certainly wasn't going to become an extra-base knock, no matter what.

Contreras's stride is about 2 inches longer this month than it was in May. He's starting more upright, and instead of stepping far toward third base, he's striding slightly more directly forward, from a more open stance. Here's his stance and stride as visualized by Baseball Savant, for May:

And here's the same visual for July.

He's used that longer stride to find more bat speed, but when one overstrides (even slightly), it creates some problems for the hitter. The bat might be moving faster, but it has to cover a slightly longer arc; getting through the ball and catching it out front or on an upward trajectory is difficult. Thus, Contreras's actual exit velocity is 1.4 miles per hour lower this month than it was in May, despite an uptick in bat speed.

Hopefully, the All-Star break will provide the Brewers' star catcher with the time he needs to recover a bit more and get the sizzle back into his hands. Even if that's true, though, it'll be hard to hold out much hope that it will endure, since the resumption of everyday duty will probably bring whatever weakness or soreness he's been dealing with right back into the picture. It's great to see him doing creative problem-solving at the plate, and his .366 on-base percentage kept him useful even during that final month before the break, but the Brewers can't keep having him bat in the heart of the order the rest of the way. They need more power from those spots than Contreras can provide right now, and the ways he's found to get a bit closer to that pop (while admirable) are neither sustainable nor sufficient.