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    Willy Adames is Making Brewers and Baseball History. Can the Crew Re-Sign Him in Free Agency?


    Tim Muma

    Hopefully, Milwaukee Brewers fans can truly enjoy what is likely Willy Adames’s last month or two with the club. The pending free agent has provided a somewhat unique power profile for shortstops in MLB and franchise history, putting up home run and RBI numbers rarely seen in multiple seasons.

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    On Monday, Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames hit his 29th home run of the season on his 29th birthday – the fifth straight game in which he had homered. What’s more amazing is that it was his 13th three-run homer of 2024, tying him with Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. for the most three-run bombs in a single season. Keep in mind that he has 22 more games remaining. Adames has also hit more three-run homers than five teams this season, drawing even with the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, who each have 13 total.

    But that’s just part of Adames’s story. His home run and RBI production from the shortstop position are uncommon. As the premier position on the infield, and arguably on the entire field, those manning the position were most often athletic, defense-minded and unworried about “power.” Of course, the game has changed over the years, with more power-focused players all over the diamond, but consistent, big home run numbers still haven’t been the norm for shortstops.

    With one more home run this season, Adames would become just the 11th shortstop in MLB history to have two or more seasons with 30 or more home runs. He hit a career-high 31 bombs in 2022, his first full season with the Brewers.

    Screenshot 2024-09-04 at 4.24.58 PM.png

    The other active Major Leaguers to accomplish this feat are: 

    Alex Rodriguez has the most 30+ home run seasons all-time as a shortstop, with seven in his career. For the record, we’re counting someone as a shortstop if they played at least 80% of their games that season at the position. And while this group focuses on multiple seasons of 30+ bombs, only 27 shortstops have had even one such season, with 24 of those instances coming since 1991.

    No matter how you slice it, Adames has been one of the very few to display home run power while playing such a key position. And save for his rough 2024, where his defense has been a struggle, Adames has mostly been a solid defender. Teams will certainly throw a lot of money at him this offseason for the combo he brings.

    Of course, assuming Adames doesn’t go on what would have to be a 24-game homer drought, he will become the only Brewers shortstop with multiple seasons of 30+ homers. Bill Hall is the only other “shortstop” to reach 30 homers, connecting for 35 in 2006. Hall was always more of a utility player for the Brewers, but Milwaukee needed him for 127 games at short that year, and he responded with a huge offensive campaign.

    Ironically, the best shortstop in franchise history never reached 30 home runs in a single year. Robin Yount blasted 29 homers in his 1982 MVP season. He only hit more than 20 home runs three other times in his career, whether playing shortstop or center field. Yount was a different type of player, in a different era, playing in a different home park that didn’t lend itself to the long ball.

    Yount does hold the franchise record for RBI in a single season for a shortstop. He drove in 114 runs in ’82, ranking him fourth in the American League. Interestingly, he only had the second-most RBI on his own club that season, as Cecil Cooper collected 121 RBI for Harvey’s Wallbangers. Meanwhile, Adames collected his 100th RBI Tuesday night, giving him an outside shot at reaching Yount’s mark--especially if he continues to be the Steph Curry of the Brewers, with his frequent ”three-pointers.”

    Either way, Adames is already the only shortstop in Brewers history to amass 95+ RBI in multiple seasons, having driven in 96 runs two years ago. Aside from Yount, Dale Sveum and José Valentín are the only other Brewers shortstops to reach 95 RBI in a season, reaching exactly that number in 1987 and 1996, respectively. Yount tallied 103 RBI in two other seasons, but both came after he made the switch to center field.

    In terms of multiple 95+ RBI seasons for shortstops in MLB history, the list is much longer than the 30-homer club. But considering how many players have manned the position over the course of time, it’s still noteworthy. In fairness, RBI stats have an element of luck and circumstance to them, as players in certain parts of the lineup have a greater advantage, and you need to rely on your teammates to be on base frequently. For example, Lindor now has five years with 30+ home runs, but he has only twice reached 95 RBI in a season.

    Regardless, Adames is one of only 26 MLB shortstops with at least a pair of 95 RBI seasons all-time. Hall of Fame Boston Red Sox shortstop Joe Cronin did it a record 10 times in his career. If we arbitrarily push the minimum to 98+ RBI seasons, the shortstop list shrinks to 21 players. Both sets of numbers speak to the challenge of producing those high RBI numbers, whether luck-infused or not.

    As Adames gets ready to hit the free-agent market following the 2024 season, he has put himself in a tremendous position to get top dollar. After a strong 2022 season, last year raised major concerns and threatened to negatively impact his next contract (which might have helped the Brewers re-sign him). But 2024 has been an incredible rebound, whether you focus on traditional stats or believe in the value of StatCast numbers.

    Screenshot 2024-09-02 at 7.36.55 PM.png

    So, while Brewers fans enjoy the stretch run to another division title and possible first-round playoff bye, it’s important to appreciate what Adames has brought to the table, not just this season, but throughout his time in Milwaukee. He has always benefitted the club in multiple ways – even off the field – including through his personality, work ethic and value as a teammate. But when push comes to shove, teams need tangible numbers, and getting middle-of-the-order power and RBI output from a shortstop gives clubs an edge.

    How many people will only understand the special skill Adames delivered as a shortstop once he’s gone? The franchise hasn’t exactly been a shortstop factory, and teams are always on the lookout for the next big thing at that position. Joey Ortiz, the likeliest candidate for 2025 and beyond, will be a tremendous player with his own offensive style and elite defense. But in terms of home runs and RBI production, Milwaukee might not see someone like Adames for quite some time – if ever again.

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    Brandon Sproat

    Milwaukee Brewers - MLB, RHP
    Sproat had a rough first appearance in a Brewers uniform (3 IP, 7 ER, 3 HR). On Thursday, he gave up one run on 4 hits and a walk over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out six Blue Jays batters.

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    No, they cannot. I don't think they should either. Suppose they sign him for 7 years and $200m. I don't think that would be a wise investment. You think they haven't learned anything from extending Braun and Yelich? 

    • Like 2

    The article goes a long way to demonstrate how productive Willy has been, but it doesn't really try and answer the 'can we sign him' question. Perhaps that's evident - the answer is no. He'll be the top shortstop in free agency, and should get $25+ million a year. I think Dansby Swanson's 7-year/$177m deal is a good comp. 

    Sportrac pegged him at 7-years/$175m - https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2435/valuing-top-2025-mlb-free-agents

    Perhaps a market doesn't emerge for Adames (it does happen - look at Chapman and others last year). But with a dearth of quality shortstops (the only other really good one is Ha-Seong Kim), someone will pay the price. I just don't see Milwaukee paying $25 million - or even $20m - for 5+ years for Adames. And we have a replacement waiting with Ortiz/Turang. 

    Losing Willy's bat will be huge. But unless we want to suddenly grow our payroll by $20m a year (which is unlikely), I'm guessing he is gone. 

    • Like 2

    He gone.  MLB's tainted alignment favoring big city teams heavily is the end all.   Completely unfair for a large percentile of teams.  Imagine if the league had a real cap and set up like the NFL has.

     

    My understanding is if the team makes a qualifying offer we'll get a draft pick.  Where exactly that pick will land I don't know...end of the 1st or end of the 2nd?

     

    • Like 1

    Love him to death, and thanks for the article with all the cool stats. I’ll be sorry to see him go, but I agree with others that the Brewers should not (assuming they even could) pay market rate for his future based on what he has done in his prime. 

    • Like 1

    Definitely a no for me.

    I’d prefer investing the $25M/yr into prime-aged talent extensions. Quero-Pratt-Made-Pena come to mind and with this team’s current prospect-procurement abilities, especially internationally, there will be more high-end 21-22 year old talent they will probably want to lock-up thru their prime if able.

     

    • Like 1

    As much as I would like to see him return, I don't think it will be feasible.

    So, Ortiz moves to Shortstop.  Can they make up the production in the aggregate?  What can they get out of a third baseman?  If first base wasn't such a black hole, they could count on that.

    34 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

    Can they make up the production in the aggregate?

    Adames is on pace to finish around five WAR on FanGraphs.

    Even with his slow start Chourio is on pace for four WAR this year. But he’s been playing at a seven WAR pace since June. If he did tally seven WAR in 2025 that would make up for three of Willy’s lost WAR.

    Yelich put up three WAR in a little under half a season, 73 games. If (BIG IF) he comes back and doubles his playing time at the same level of production that would cover the rest with an extra win to spare.

    Hoskins bouncing back to his career norms from prior to this year would be another way to get a couple wins back.

    • Like 2
    14 hours ago, sveumrules said:

    Adames is on pace to finish around five WAR on FanGraphs.

    Even with his slow start Chourio is on pace for four WAR this year. But he’s been playing at a seven WAR pace since June. If he did tally seven WAR in 2025 that would make up for three of Willy’s lost WAR.

    Yelich put up three WAR in a little under half a season, 73 games. If (BIG IF) he comes back and doubles his playing time at the same level of production that would cover the rest with an extra win to spare.

    Hoskins bouncing back to his career norms from prior to this year would be another way to get a couple wins back.

    Then add a more experienced Ortiz-Mitchell-Frelick for good measure.

    • Like 1


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