TooLiveBrew

So I should just accept it like the rest of the sheeple. No, you should recognize that it is what it is, and there's not some elaborate conspiracy where pitchers of the world gather at a secret location to celebrate the grand illusion of tricking 'the sheeple' into believing they can't throw more than 225 IP or so per season, all while swimming in hot tubs filled with money. I think Quality Start is a weak way to have something good to say about a pitcher. Just look at the BOS-LAA game last night. The little pop-up that neither Hunter nor Kendrick decided to catch (2 outs, bases loaded for BOS) resulted in 3 ER for the Angels starter . Does that seem like a fair way to evaluate a pitcher in terms of "Earned" runs allowed? That ball was an easy out #3 if one of the two fielders took charge. If you want to complain about the Quality Start designation, or that there are many out-of-date ways that pitchers are criticized and praised, I'm with you. But I think you have to accept that baseball has changed.

But I do think Sveum seems to have a better sense of the pitching... At the worst, what could be said about Sveum is that he prepared for outcomes, whether he hoped they happen or not. Yost always seemed to be creating a scenario in his head about what he thought was going to happen, and when events played out differently, there often was no alternate plan. Just hope that the RP you got ready can get someone out, or stick with a SP too long because you don't want to bring in Shouse to face Burrell... oh, wait. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Ok, so expect less from pitchers and pay more. Sounds about right. No, stop having unrealistic expectations of pitchers & get upset less. Don't you think that if guys could still go 300 IP they would? These are the best people at pitching on the planet right now. The game is different, whether you like it or not.

Braun had some thoughts on CC from his latest blog entry, too: "With CC, there is a chance he will be back. Who knows? That would be awesome. What he did down the stretch, working on three days' rest, that's one of the most unselfish things I've ever seen. That guy has $150 million on the line, and he put everything at stake for us. That's cool."

Well it wasn't on the field, but Ryan Braun did take some time on his blog to thank the fans: "I also can't thank the fans enough for coming out and supporting us all year long. They played such a huge role in what happened this year and it was really cool to share the season with everybody. Hopefully we will have more to cheer about next year."

DiFelice would have great success against all RH teams. He throws one pitch 90% of the time, and it goes down and in to LH hitters...not a recipe for success. The reports I saw were that Mark adding the cutter is what helped him start to get LHB out at a better rate. I think DiFelice should be very seriously considered for the rotation for next season, but agree with Brawndo that our front office appears to love velocity a little too much for that to happen. I'm not positive when DiFelice added his cutter, but here're his minor-league (AAA) numbers from 2007 & 2008 v. LHB: 2007 -- BAA: .244; BABIP: .281; WHIP: 1.07; BB/9: 1.64; K/9: 6.57; HR/9: 0.91 2008 -- BAA: .196; BABIP: .216; WHIP: 0.82; BB/9: 1.19; K/9: 8.31; HR/9: 1.48 Assumptions like, 'DiFelice's stuff won't play v. LHP' are why people start calling players AAAA guys.

Bush came on and turned a horrible year into a pretty darn good one, but he can't start next year like he did this year or the Brewers won't be going very far You mean like only making the playoffs? He was very good in his postseason start, too.

Hart's OBP wasn't great all year but only atrocious in September Hart's OBP was bad for 4 of the 6 months of the season. 3B - Free Agent. Hall is ok as a utility infielder or even as a platoonmate at 3B but he can't be the starter. Per Cot's, here is the list of possible 3B FA this offseason. Asterisks indicate the player's current contract has an option for 2009: Rich Aurilia SF Casey Blake LAD Hank Blalock * TEX Joe Crede CWS Morgan Ensberg NYY Nomar Garciaparra LAD Chipper Jones * ATL Corey Koskie MIL Greg Norton TB Unfortunately, that's not very good. I agree with you 100% on Hall, Ennder, but I think 3B might have to be addressed via trade. Didn't mean to nitpick as much as just post the list of possible FAs. For the record, I think Durham would actually be someone to consider at 3B for 2009, even with his age as a concern. I know he hasn't really been a 3B in the bigs, but his skillset really says to me that he could fit at 3B. That way Hall could be a supersub, and Branyan could be retained for part-time duty & PH appearances. Durham at 3B would solve the quest for a LH bat (obv. he bats both) & hopefully add some better OBP. EDIT: Thanks, MNBrew

3. Don't overreact to Hart's bad last month. He's been horrid but that's so out of line with the rest of his career, which was always figured to be 25 HR & 25 SB anyway, lots of doubles, and a .290 BA. Let the offseason rest do what it needs to for him. While I agree that we shouldn't overreact to Corey's struggles, it wasn't just September. What worries me is his inability for most of the season to get on base, and his OBP by month for the season were: .355 .342 .292 .301 .310 .192 Especially given his recent comment on not wanting to draw walks, I think there's plenty of reason to be concerned going forward... just not enough to make me think he's never going to hit again. Also, Hardy has said he will not move off SS.

I went back and watched the archived mlb.com footage and he dropped the ball so not really sure how the call is botched. He dropped the ball, but well after he'd secured it in his glove. He dropped it as he was already laying on the ground, iirc as he started to reach for the ball in his glove. If he had dropped it as he was falling back from the wall, I would agree it wasn't a catch. EDIT: TBS had a great replay & angle of the Hart play at the wall last night. Not sure if that was the clip you saw on MLB.com or not.

I had just assumed Gallardo was unavailable. As soon as I saw Yovani warming in the bullpen, I lost my mind. Starting Suppan over Gallardo is the definition of indefensible. Bring me Sveum's head on a platter. There will never be a managerial move that makes my blood boil more than his moronic, mind-boggling 'decision' to start Jeff 'Toast' Suppan today.

And if it wasn't for a blown call on Corey Hart's amazing catch at/into the wall, he would have had a chance to at least finish that 6th inning. I was so pissed at the umpires on that one. I was at an Ohio State alum-owned sportsbar last night for both the OSU-UW & Brewers game. I nearly lost my voice entirely, and honestly a huge chunk of the damage came as I was irate about that missed call. Once Bush was lifted for Stetter -- which was a move I was glad that Sveum made -- I really got steamed about the umps. And RyDogg, love the reference in your first line!

And not freaking out would allow us to make an in season move if needed - like with Sabathia. If we have payroll flexibility, perhaps you make a deal mid-season if there's an injury, or the rotation really needs help, or someone is simply regressing. I think this is a very salient point. I also agree with much of your (great) post, reilly. While adding a player in the offseason certainly makes everyone feel good, sometimes you don't know what you've got with a team until a bit into the season. If you give up a prospect or two to add a guy, and the team goes out & just doesn't win enough (think 2008 Tigers), then you might have wasted the add & prospect(s). I personally don't think 2009 is going to be a 'go for it' season like this one has been, so I'd hate to see us give up good value for a one-year patch, only to see a major injury like Gallardo's this season make the addition kind of a moot point. But if the Brewers are in the mix around the deadline & there's good reason to expect that to continue, by all means, I'd want to see Melvin/GM fire away.

He hasn't collapsed yet I think he has. I think 2008 was a horrid season both for what he did on the mound & for what should be expected for Jeff to produce in his age 34 season. plenty of teams would take him if he were waived...that's limited value, but far from negative. I thought you just said he would be worth his $12.5M.

It's a measurement. All measurements should be looked at in context. Milton Bradley isn't a .321 hitter, but he was in the chances he had this year. That's a good point & example. Bad defensive players can have good defensive years, and vice versa. The problem I feel is not a bad defensive player having a good or average year, but that metrics will not accurately reflect what was a good or bad year. And I still have no clue how Kotchman's poor offense in Atlanta is of equal value to Lee's solid year in Chicago. I've followed the links in the Stats forum, and researched XRAA a bit.

Unless he improves like a guy aged in his low or mid 20s might next season, Jeff Suppan is not going to be worth $12.5M in 2009. His Ks decreased while his BBs increased in 2008. A FIP of 5.51 certainly isn't worth $12.5M, and I don't think it's very reasonable to expect Soup to improve by a whole lot. I'd be happy if he could get down to 2008 Silva territory, but even that would be a big correction. Maybe Soup's career FIP of 4.80 is a reasonable target/hope. 2008 FIP (per Fangraphs): Carlos Silva - 4.63 Vicente Padilla - 5.03 Kyle Lohse - 3.89

If a player has limited playing time and plays well, they can really skew the stats. What about Kotchman's crummy production being of equal weight to Lee's? I don't think it's a perfect stat, but it's one of the few easily available stats that measures play by play defense and converts the chances into a value of runs. Just because it's available doesn't mean it should be trusted. Like I said, I might be missing something, but if the offense of Derrek Lee & Ryan Howard are being ranked right there with Casey Kotchman, I think it's really flawed.

It is a total production metric, and through Sep 2nd, Fielder provide more total production than Lee. It's very hard for me to believe or trust that Lee is that far behind Fielder. Prince's defense is ridiculously bad, while Lee is much closer to 'ridiculously good'. Offensively I just don't see how Lee trails Fielder enough that he'd finish so far behind overall. The OPD ranking you've provided states that Lee is in the lower half of 1B in the majors. That's just hard to believe imo. I think part of my problem is that I think the defensive metrics right now are very misleading in general. The Extrapolated Runs Above Average, which as I understand it is offensive value relative to position (that is the Xra+AA category, right?), has Lee's line of .291/.361/.462 as equal (negative) value to either Casey Kotchman's overall .272/.328/.410 or his .237/.331/.316 with Atlanta -- I'm not sure if the chart is counting only NL stats. Unless I'm misunderstand the Xra+AA column, the data seems off to me. The gap between Fielder's & Lee's defense is so much larger than the gap between their offense, unless the offensive metric has Lee as bad as the Xra+AA does. Heck, Ryan Howard's .251/.339/.543 is rated out as a -7.2. The stat there is either very strange, or I'm missing something.

If I am reading it right it looks like Prince has a better metric than D. Lee. I am very surprised by that. This is a great example of why I don't pay much attention to defensive metrics. If you watch these dudes play 1B, it's very readily apparent that Lee is at or near the top of the spectrum, where Fielder is at or near the bottom. So if Hart had come relatively close to matching his projections, what would that have done for runs created? Seems like a huge difference to me. Yeah, I agree homer. It's such a shame that Corey was a bust this second half. Even just having him around last year's season production would have made a huge difference.

While Cameron did a great job this year for us it is hard to call him a bargain at his price so if we can find a way to get a player who fits our needs a little more (left handed, higher OBP) it is one of the more logical positions to look at. I agree he's not a bargain, but at $10M Cam is also relatively reasonably priced for a CF -- and the fact that it'd only be a one-year imo makes it even more palatable. It would be great to find a LH, high(er) OBP guy to capably man CF, but I'm just not sure that will be very easy to do. And since at least Sabathia's salary won't be on the books, the money is there for a one-year flyer. The other aspect that I value highly is Cameron's defense. I think having a very good CF is important right now as both Braun & Hart don't (yet) always take the best routes to balls. On balance, I don't know if we can realistically improve upon Cameron without creating a hole elsewhere in the organization, though I agree on the 'movable part' categorization.

Escobar wasn't drafted. *slinks away* I would imagine Jack Z would have some input on signing young FAs or perhaps the regions & positions to be scouted, but I really don't know if he'd be there personally scouting and/or interacting with someone like Escobar prior to Alcides signing a contract. To be fair, I should acknowledge that AJAY's point on the drafting strategy under Zduriencik is mostly true. I just don't agree with placing the absolutist "we always end up drafting..." on it. I do realize that it was more of a general point, though.

As I point out, but it does not seem to get discussed because it's not fun, OBP used to be undervalued, and now, it's all but impossible to find league average OBP available for anything but a high price, in both salary and trade cost. Are you claiming to be the only person that knows that OBP is no longer undervalued? I think that's pretty much common knowledge, and that's why people aren't really discussing it. I am convinved that our GM doesn't appreciate well-rounded baseball players who play the game properly. He seems to collect players who all fit the same profile but fit poorly together as a group. We always end up drafting the same kind of one-dimensional slugger who can't play defense or do the other little things like hitting for average, bunting, hitting-and-running, drawing walks, etc. Melvin has said that he basically leaves the drafting to Jack Z. And aside from that, Zduriencik has drafted Hardy, Escobar, Fielder (draws BBs better than any other Brewer), TGJ, etc. Right now the team didn't have the kind of OBP that I think Melvin felt he had assembled heading into 2008. Having very disappointing overall seasons from Weeks, Hall, & Hart is simply something a GM cannot control or realistically take into consideration. Honestly, heading into this season, I was happy & felt that Melvin had done a nice job adding OBP/BB talent to the lineup. Adding [beltre] alone bumps the team to the upper third in the NL in run production. Interesting -- and that's without taking into consideration how many runs his glovework would save. I will continue to dream about adding Beltre. Also, Dejesus, who I like mind you, does not compare favorably to either Cameron or Weeks (CF or leadoff). I have no idea where the notion that we should dump Cameron, who was basically a top-10 CF in all of MLB, has come from... well, aside from people that are allergic to strikeouts beating the same drum over & over again.

Except, once again, moving Braun back to third means that the Brewers would simply have to find an outfielder who could be their OBP guy. that sort of outfielder will come far cheaper because they're easier to find. And we would once again see Braun negate most or all of his offensive value by returning to a position at which he was tragically, historically bad -- and a full year removed from playing it, to boot. The OF fits Braun's skillset. 3B does not.

I'm usually not affected by the death of actors, but he was a great actor and a great human being and in all honesty he was one of my heroes. Well-said. All I could do when I heard about this was cuss. So sorry to see you go, Paul. I hope your beautiful work away from film can be kept in the public eye through your brilliant work on film. [long moment of silence]

And they are completely unable to put together multiple hit innings. The top of the 1st yesterday was a multiple-baserunner inning. Not much difference if Myers gave up the 3 BBs or 3 more hits -- that was a very good inning until the Hart blunder/topper. In my opinion, teams learned how to pitch to us and we havent made adjustments. Fielder, Braun, Hardy, & heck even Weeks have. We have two or three absolute black holes in the lineup right now in the 6-7-8 range, though. Hard to keep things going.