TooLiveBrew

I respond to that question: He's not better than Davis, Davis is better than Lopez, and it's not really that close!

Guys, don't get too excited about Vernon Wells's possible impending availability. A lot of talk out of the GM mtg week is that Toronto feels they can challenge legitimately for the AL East crown this year. Perhaps the deal with Thomas is to prepare for dealing Wells, but it seems more likely that this is an addition to shoot for the crown. Ok, now, that being said, the Jays had one successful LH starter in 2006 -- Ted Lilly -- and he's a FA expected to move on. Davis perhaps could be a main piece to lure away Wells, but I'd bet that's not a good probability

This idea comes from Gotham Baseball, a site devoted to the Yanks and Mets. "According to others, however, the Yankees are "very much in the market for another veteran starter, likely a left-hander". If this is the case, wouldn't it be interesting to discuss which one would make the most sense? Not if it's based on fantasy, said one AL scout.: "The Yankees may think about Ted Lilly, but they've been there, done that. The Yankees can't get Willis without Hughes, and Mark Mulder's health is a concern. Honestly, I see the Yankees going with kids and the guys they already have." Here's the link: www.gothambaseball.com/ne...555838.php Sounds like DD could work for NYY, but the only (granted major) problem for the Crew is who could they net? The article mentions Philip Hughes (NYY's top pitching prospect) is N/A. I don't think merely Melky Cabera is just compensation, but the notion that the Yanks want an established LHP, and the fact that Davis probably would've won 15 games with that lineup in 2006, is intriguing. Thoughts?

Clark Davis Inman for Jennings Thoughts? p.s. -- is that even a fair offer, from the Rockies' perspective?

That's interesting to hear, those are two guys I was going to mention in the GM mtgs. thread, instead of just Vazquez & Escobar. Geoff Jenkins is the guy I'd offer, but he alone wouldn't get it done. I think we could swing a deal of Davis & Jenkins for Westbrook and Jason Michaels. The rumor of dealing Clark to Colorado is what makes me look at Michaels. He'd be a nice bench OFer. Was .291/.349/.450 vs. LHP in 2006, and having both Michaels & Gross off the bench would make not only for versatile lineup options, but also strong pinch-hitting situations. Again, when the opportunity comes to add a pitcher as nice as Westbrook, I put that first and worry about adding the third OF later -- and the rumors are becoming that we're going to land/are the favorites to land Dave Roberts

And hooray for the overhaul! The team is finally able to build around its successful scouting and drafting of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Hall --- this is a dream starting to come true! I'm all for Roberts, but wonder why this guy in the Rocky Mtn. News is the only one talking about the Brewers being "expected" to sign Roberts. I hope he's right, but that's the first and only time I've heard that

Yeah, actually the numbers are expected/feared to be much higher. The talk around the GM meetings is that Soriano may even pull down a deal similar to Beltran's from 2 seasons ago -- 7 yrs/ $120mil I disagree that Soriano is not a franchise player. He scores a boatload of runs, drives in a boatload of runs, and is a legitimate HR threat every time he steps to the plate. Unfortunately, we cannot afford to "take the chances" as someone mentioned in this kind of situation. The Brewers cannot afford to spend $16-20 mil on one guy per year yet, that's just an economic fact. We can take risks with guys like Roberts or Suppan, not the top-end -- we just don't generate that kind of capital. If we want to be able to nab guys like that, we just have to keep pushing through those Miller Park gates for the next 5 years like we have been for the past 3!

To me, guys, the ability for the Crew to offer Davis along with Jenkins (or Mench) is where we have room for improvement. I also recognize it's time for Villanueva to get his opportunity to prove himself as the 5 starter. I don't want to add a Lopez/Clement/Benson, but instead a guy we can get excited about -- or at least optimistic about. What can a duo of Davis & Jenks fetch, well, I'm not sure. But if Lyle Overbay can yield Dave Bush AND ZachJack, I bet the aforementioned combo will do pretty well. They're both proven durable and productive, whatever you want to argue about them. Guys that show up pretty much all year every year AND produce are a rare commodity. There's so much wiggling and restructuring to be done by Doug E. Doug this offseason, but that's what he's good at. Moving Jenks & Davis means finding another everyday OF, whether corner or center. But I would worry about that much later than the opportunity to add a proven, veteran, #2 quality starter like Vazquez (not saying the ChiSox want that deal) or Escobar (granted he has had elbow problems -- Cappy had Tommy John surgery, and Sheets had shoulder/upper back problems -- injuries are part of the game)

UWRyan, I totally agree, even with the high-priced sentiment. However, if the Brewers are able to deal Davis, Mench, and Jenkins, -- mainly to unload salary -- the higher price tag for Vazquez is not only possible, it's realistic. Think of this -- if the Crew does unload all 3 of those contracts, and Capuano, Hall, & Shouse are granted arbitration - Cap & Hall @ $5 mil, and Shouse at $1.5mil (just to err on the side of inflation). The payroll for 2007 is then at $46.2 mil. Adding Vazquez at $12.5 bumps it to roughly $59 mil. That still leaves room, without exceeding Captain Mark's $60 million estimate by too much, to add someone like Dave Roberts. p.s. -- Keep in mind, that there is a decent likelihood that the ChiSox would even be willing to defer some of the salary for '06, since it's the final year of his contract (and that final year status is another reason why he's fair game for trade)

Rivera's contract # for 2007: $2 mil. He may not be obtainable, but just getting Escobar would be fine with me, with Dave Roberts available in FA

I agree, Gone. Roberts may not be the perfect leadoff man, but how many teams really had that .300/.375/.425 guy? Roberts's career SB% is 80, and he swiped 49 while only getting caught 6 times in '06 (89%). He's got incredible range in CF, and is a veteran who won't need development at his position or the plate. He's 35 in 2007, so the fact that he has high demand, and Melvin worries that it may take a 3-yr deal to obtain his services. That's my only hangup. I don't want to have to worry about Roberts's $6 mil. number in 2009. Other than that, he'd be a nice addition

Mench or Jenkins could be part of the deal too. Tim Salmon retired this offseason, leaving a vacancy at the DH spot. The Angels' extra outfielder appears to be Juan Rivera (2006: .310/.362/.525), and if the deal can include both Escobar & Rivera, moving Hall to CF with Rivera at LF really really really fits. Davis, Koskie, Mench/Jenks for Escobar/Rivera Doesn't quite work, IMO, but that's getting REALLY close to a deal that will solve a LOT of problems for our Crew

So the GM mtgs. are this week in Naples, Fla. More guys are suddenly 'available', and some of the new names being tossed around are intriguing. IMO, especially the White Sox have a crop to be dissected. Their "5 Aces" pitching staff is seemingly up for grabs, with the possible exceptions of John Garland (age) and Buehrle (just picked up his option, and he's a lefty) I particularly am interested in Javier Vazquez. He's a durable, veteran righty who will by 30 on Opening Day 2007. He has struggled somewhat over his past 3 seasons, spending each in a new venue. From 2004-06 his ERA is 4.73, and record is 36-37. However, his WHIP for those years is a paltry 1.276. He's a bit pricy ($12.5 mil for 2007 - deferring money would have to be central to the deal), but perhaps worth it? I don't know what the Crew could offer for him, perhaps Davis is not viable, perhaps he is -- durable lefties are always valuable, no matter how we trash Doug. Another interesting name is Kelvim Escobar. Versatile arm, durable, and re-established himself as a solid starter in 2007. He inexplicably finished 11-14 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.278 WHIP (in the AL!) I have no rumored availability on this one, just a suggestion. His 2007 contract: $8.5 mil ('08 = $9 mil, '09 = $9.5) The Halos want help at 3B, and we have Koskie (understand he's a ?), and a lefty to move in Davis. They have been reported to be shopping 23-y-o Ervin Santana, so I'm basing that to assume the 30-y-o Escobar could be had. The Angels had no LH Starters in 2006. IMO Escobar is the perfect fit for the Crew's rotation, and economically, not only does he work in 2007, he works through 2009. Thoughts?

Not sure I follow, aracko, I defended the notion of Lopez as an affordable, durable, back-of-the-rotation guy who could eventually go to the pen. Judging from Bush's stats in 2005, he would never have been capable of putting up the strong season he did in 2006. Lopez has had very successful years, and ignoring those to focus on last year's struggles (on a team that finished 70-92) does not accomplish much, to me. If we're building our rotation around Lopez, I agree, bad idea. But we're not, we're looking for someone proven to be both reliable and affordable - not spectacular. If Lopez costs $3-5 mil for next year, I think it's a great one-year deal. Like I said, if he sucks, give Gallardo a shot.

Let's hold off on slamming Lopez. Dave Bush was 5-11 in 2005, and gave up 20 HR in only 136 IP. There's more to the game than stats, and we need to especially remember that Lopez has played more baseball than just 2006. His career stats: 60 Wins, 61 Losses WHIP - 1.413 ERA - 4.83 Keep in mind he's pitched his entire career in the AL, where ERAs are always higher. This is the kind of signing that will help to fill out our rotation. Lopez was slotted as the Oriole's 2006 Opening Day starter. He'll only have to prove capable of handling the #4 or 5 role, and as already pointed out, could slide to the Pen once both Villanueva and Gallardo are ready to roll. Lopez will be very affordable, has a durable arm, and can capably fill out our 5-man rotation. If he sucks, call up Gallardo.

I feel confident that between Jenks, Mench, and Clark, Doug E. Doug can come up with a 4th/5th starter. Villanueva appears capable of holding down a spot for 2007, and Gallardo, by all accounts, is going to become a regular by the middle of said season. Adding an Ohka-type arm (obviously not the departed Tomo) should be just what the doctor ordered. I have no idea whether or not the BoSux would be interested in that trade. But it looks fair and swing-able to me, and would help both sides. Now, if the Boston rotation is full, certainly the deal doesn't necessarily help them.

Teamwork, people http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Easy boys.... let's play nice

Hey, no discussion topic here, just a useful link: www.mlbtraderumors.com/ This site appears to rely on credible sources, compile topics from multiple sources, and really keep ears to the ground p.s. - Also see www.mlbtraderumors.com/mi...index.html for Brewers-related news

That's competely unfair, come on. I understand if you want to mock the notion of him hitting leadoff, but that comment is just unrealistic. Say what you like, but his track record is one of durability and production. I'd say IMO, but I think that it's a fact. He was a crucial part of the Marlins' 2003 WS title, at the leadoff spot. I don't suggest he has maintained that success, but "8th hitter on a bad team" is just spiteful, not realistic

Sure thing mother, what about net SBs counting toward Slug. %? We could call it Slug%+. Sabermetrics, eat ya heart out Good points, by the way, as usual. Pierre perhaps as the #2 hitter? Someone else made that point, and I think there's value to it. Bat control is obviously not a problem for Pierre, and he's not a big risk to hit into a DP. His arm in the field is a major drawback, but Carlos Lee's defense was a liability, too. Are power hitters exempt from such scrutiny? Pierre's ability to play every day, literally, is invaluable, as we experienced with Lee.

touche, touche. Thanks for keeping me on the up-and-up. Let's forget that Moeller was part of that deal, makes my argument look bad http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

p.s. - Pierre's career runs scored is also astonishingly better than Crisp's Crisp - 82 runs scored / "full" season (minimum 139 games) Pierre - 97 runs / full season Additionally, Crisp has only played two "full" seasons - 2004 & 2005, 139 & 145 games, respectively Pierre has gone: 2001 - 156 gms 2002 - 152 2003 - 162 2004 - 162 2005 - 162 2006 - 162 I think the ability to consistently score runs defines whether or not a player is effective at the top of the lineup. I don't remember who mentioned this on Brewerfan, but SBs should be considered as extra points to put toward Slug. %. I think that's a creative and effective notion. Doing that most likely compensates for any difference in slug % favoring Crisp.

Would we be willing to part with Jenks and Davis for Crisp and, say, a bullpen arm? Because I sure would. I agree with taking Crisp over Pierre, although I spoke up in favor of Pierre on that thread. I like that element both men bring -- speed. However, I don't think that, offensively, they are any different. True, last year, Crisp's SB% was better (84% to 74%), but Pierre stole a helluva lot more bases. Let's not forget that one year does not define a player. Career SB %s: Crisp - 69 Pierre - 73 Additionally, their career OBPs Crisp - .329 Pierre - .350 Weeks and Hart are not going to be enough speed to make that an identifiable element of our attack. By adding speed/Crisp, I think we have enough to boast speed as a primary element of the 2007 Crew. It seems the primary difference btw the two players is arm strength. Maybe Crisp is the better bargain, financially, too.

jleisher, it's not that anyone is afraid to make moves, it's just that there is no readily discernable move that can answer the Brewers' need for a big-bopper bat. If the choice is giving up too much in return for one player, then the organization has to be wise and excercise patience. In fact, I think it's unfair to label Melvin & Co. "afraid" to deal. This is just not the reality. Everyone thought the Sexson deal was cashing in our season, when, in reality, it laid the groundwork for the current Brewers resugance. Overbay Capuano De La Rosa Counsell Miller Spivey led to: Dave Bush, Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson, Graffanino (and his Type A player FA compensatory draft pick), Ohka (Type B pick), not to mention the two players we retained, our starting catcher and #2 (arguably #1) starter! We'll have to wait to see what Melvin can swing in terms of a trade, because our answer does not appear to be attainable, reasonbly, via free angency. Just don't sell the front office short!