batman

I don't understand why the Brewers would blackout the TBS broadcast. They aren't protecting the interests of FSN. They aren't doing TBS any favors. The game is not available at all in many parts of the state (radio or TV) because of the Packers preseason game, so they are effectively preventing a large number of fans from following the game. What benefit are the Brewers receiving from this protectionist move? This is the kind of thing Mark Attanasio should be all over... it's easy to build goodwill if you don't treat your fans like this. ~Bill

Everyone: I know the last inning has been frustrating, but please try to keep the discussion civil. The moderators are much more lenient in game threads but that doesn't mean you should feel the need to demonstrate your anger with condescension and rudeness. I'm not going to single anyone out so please don't complain about censorship... just dial it down a notch. Thank you. Now let's get some runs. ~Bill

What has gotten into Josh? Innings, I'm afraid. He threw 85 innings at Cowley County last season before being drafted and another 75 at Helena. This year, he's already up to 114. That's getting close to 300 innings in just two years, and that's a whole lot of pitches for a 21-year old, especially one with less-than-perfect mechanics. It doesn't surprise me at all that he seems to be wearing down. Hopefully the Brewers are keeping a close eye on him and are taking steps to prevent an arm injury. ~Bill

Well, so much for my theory about Lehr. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif ~Bill

This might not work, but what would y'all think of spot starting Justin Lehr in one of the three games at Coors, perhaps for Santos? He was starting at Nashville and should still be capable of throwing at least 80 pitches and his stuff profiles as well as anyone's for Coors Field. Sheets, Santos, and Cappy are all gonna have trouble pitching at altitude... perhaps Lehr and Obermueller would have been better options (the team could have recalled Obie instead of Capellan). I doubt they ever really considered it, and it might have just messed up the pitching staff (if Lehr or Obie struggled), but it would have been an interesting experiment. In other news, Sheets is getting smoked. ~Bill

I don't necessarily disagree with you, EDR, but consider that the distinction between those two players in WARP3 is due to defense, not offense. Davis' historically-adjusted equivalent average was .330 compared with Gwynn's .342, so the BP metrics definitely recognize the superiority of Gwynn at the plate. On defense, Gwynn gets credited as being four runs above average as a right-fielder while Davis is 13 runs above average as a center-fielder. That's why their WARP scores are similar. How much you decide to trust BP's defensive stats is up to you. ~Bill

tomwopat, please follow the rules regarding acceptable language. EzInbox me if you have any questions. Thanks, ~Bill

"Blowouts and the value of closers" By Keith Woolner Special to ESPN.com Wednesday, August 16 Editor's note: The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com. You can check out more of their work at their website at baseballprospectus.com. With blowouts of a different type in the news, it seems to be an opportune time to talk about blowouts in baseball. The offensive explosion of the last eight years, while decried in some quarters, is defended by others as a good thing since it supposedly generates more fan interest, because fans like more scoring and more home runs. But judging by the number of fans leaving in the seventh inning of a 12-1 game I recently attended, they like games to be close as well. Has the increased offense of recent years resulted in more 12-1 yawners, or have yesterday's 2-1 pitchers' duels become 9-8 hitters' battles? To investigate this question, I looked at all games over a 21-year-span, from 1979 to 1999. The data was made available thanks a combination of sources: Retrosheet, the Baseball Workshop and Total Sports among them. Taking a cue from the definition of a save, we'll consider any game that ends with a three-run or less margin of victory as "close." We'll double that threshold and call any game won by six or more runs a "blowout." Let's look at the frequency of close games and blowouts over the years: Year Close Blowout 1979 65.5% 17.0% 1980 65.8% 14.3% 1981 63.6% 14.3% 1982 65.6% 15.8% 1983 65.6% 15.7% 1984 65.0% 14.8% 1985 63.2% 17.3% 1986 64.7% 16.4% 1987 61.8% 18.8% 1988 65.0% 15.8% 1989 63.4% 16.5% 1990 63.0% 16.4% 1991 64.6% 15.7% 1992 66.1% 15.4% 1993 63.3% 16.8% 1994 61.1% 20.0% 1995 60.5% 20.3% 1996 60.8% 20.6% 1997 61.2% 20.0% 1998 62.0% 18.8% 1999 59.3% 22.2% Avg. 63.4% 17.4% The past six seasons, along with the rabbit-ball year of 1987, are the seven years with the highest percentage of blowouts since 1979. Similarly, the number of close games has declined by five to six percentage points. Perhaps this shouldn't be too surprising -- we'd expect the highest scoring seasons to have the most blowouts -- but it confirms that the rising offensive levels are turning 4-2 games into, say, 12-4 blowouts more often than into 9-7 games. The percentage differences aren't small either. The gap between the high and low points in the above chart means that teams in 1999 were playing in 10 to 11 fewer "close" games, and were involved in 12 to 13 more blowouts, than they were in previous decades. Allowing for some overlap between the two, teams are seeing a tenth of the season pushed into decidedly less interesting categories of games. I wonder what that's costing teams in late-inning concession sales. Of course, the final outcome of the game may not reflect the actual level of tension during the game. A rally in the ninth inning could turn a one-run squeaker into a foregone conclusion. So to account for that possibility, let's look at the run differential between the two teams at any point during the last three innings of the game. We'll again use the three-run margin for close games, and a six-run gap as a blowout: Year Close Late Early Blowout 1979 79.4% 9.2% 1980 80.7% 7.7% 1981 79.7% 7.7% 1982 79.5% 7.2% 1983 80.3% 7.2% 1984 79.6% 8.1% 1985 78.8% 8.4% 1986 79.6% 8.0% 1987 77.1% 9.9% 1988 79.6% 7.9% 1989 78.9% 8.6% 1990 78.9% 7.8% 1991 79.2% 8.3% 1992 80.4% 7.0% 1993 79.5% 7.7% 1994 76.6% 10.3% 1995 76.0% 10.6% 1996 75.9% 10.3% 1997 77.4% 10.0% 1998 79.1% 8.9% 1999 76.2% 10.2% Average 78.7% 8.6% The percentage of games that are close at any point in the last third of the games increases, which makes sense since the previous category is a subset of the games we're looking at now. Still, we again see a decline in games that are still close in the late innings and an increase in early blowouts. We're still looking at an increase of about one game in 14 where the differential between teams late in the game makes the outcome seem like a foregone conclusion. Is baseball seven percent less interesting nowadays (Hmmm ... perhaps that's introducing too many numbers ... ) The increase in blowouts is not just a matter of entertainment. It can affect in-season decisions as well, particularly in bullpen management. With more and more games out of hand before you can get to your closer, the number of opportunities to use a top reliever in high-leverage situations decreases. This is counterbalanced, to some degree, by what started this discussion -- offensive levels are rising. Teams are scoring more runs, hence effective run prevention is more valuable and harder to come by. Does the value of run prevention in the late innings balance the lack of opportunities for a closer? Are closers worth more or less in a high-offense environment? Let's consider an idealized closer: one who is capable of shutting down the opposing team completely for one inning, and is brought in solely when the team is winning in the ninth inning. In a previous article I wrote for the Baseball Prospectus website, I developed a formula for estimating how often a team of differing offensive strengths would score 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. runs per inning. I've used this formula to figure out how much impact our ideal closer could have in different offensive environments. Assume two teams with equally potent offensive lineups (they average the same number of runs per game), as we move them into different offensive environments. The odds of one team overcoming a one-, two- or three-run deficit in the ninth inning varies as the offensive level ranges between three and six runs per game: Chance of blowing a: 1-run lead 2-run lead 3-run lead 3.0 R/G 12.2% 4.6% 1.7% 3.5 R/G 13.6% 5.5% 2.2% 4.0 R/G 14.9% 6.4% 2.7% 4.5 R/G 16.2% 7.3% 3.2% 5.0 R/G 17.5% 8.4% 3.9% 5.5 R/G 18.4% 9.0% 4.4% 6.0 R/G 19.4% 9.7% 4.9% So, the likelihood of a comeback increases quite a bit as offense levels rise. Naturally, this makes each appearance by the closer in a tight game more valuable, since the odds of the opposing team coming back are greater. The heightened likelihood may make the game more interesting, should it be close enough in the late innings. Measuring subjective perceptions like this is probably too difficult, but we can reasonably hypothesize that it's related to the chance that the outcome of the game will be reversed in the late innings. We could consider the value of a closer as a proxy for how interesting a game is to a typical fan. Therefore, the impact of a closer increases as the likelihood of a comeback increases (which, as we have seen, happens when offense increases), and decreases with the chance that the game will be close in the late innings (which decreases as scoring increases). These factors work against each other but don't completely cancel out. Multiplying these two components together yields a factor proportional to the expected value of a closer. Comparing this factor to the overall offensive level, we find a slight overall increase in the value of a closer as scoring increases. In fact, between the lowest-scoring season and the highest-scoring season, the value of a closer has risen roughly 13 percent (assuming they were to be used in the idealized way described above -- we aren't considering the evolution of the closer strategy over time). The "shape" of that contribution is different, however, as it comes into play in fewer games but has more impact on those games. We have theoretical support, then, for what common sense may have already told us: that thanks to rising offensive levels, fewer games will be in question in the late innings, but those that do will be real nail-biters. And can anyone who's watched the Mariners' bullpen in recent years claim otherwise? Keith Woolner writes for the Baseball Prospectus, the annual book by the same name, covering over 1500 players with in-depth statistical analysis and hard-hitting commentary. Keith may be reached at kwoolner@baseballprospectus.[/b]

If the Rockies moved to the AL and let Branyan be their everyday designated hitter (so he could hopefully stay healthy), he'd OPS about 2000 and hit about 70 bombs. Is there a more perfect Coors player than Branyan? ~Bill

I have something of a man crush on Aaron Cook... I think he can be Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb down the line. He basically just throws a sinker over and over again, and hitters tend to pound it into the ground. If his heart is okay and he's healthy, I'd like to see the Brewers try to rescue him from Coors Field. EDIT: And I didn't mean for the "heart" thing to be a pun... although given the other thread, it's pretty funny. I mean the red muscle in his chest, not his will to win. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif ~Bill

That's terrible news. Did Dennis try to pitch through the pain? I hope the trainer didn't tell him to go back out there if he felt like he injured his elbow. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif Best wishes to him and I hope the MRI turns up negative! Keep your head up, ~Bill

That game made the last two losses totally worth it. I'm probably "accepting mediocrity" or "letting the organization off the hook" or whatever, but I don't care. That was fun. COREY HART FOR PRESIDENT! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ~Bill

Kane Davis' slider is Julio Santana-esque. Those two guys are very, very similar pitchers. *** I was thinking... shouldn't Kane and Doug have to get their first initials on the back of their jerseys now? ~Bill

jake2006, would your Uncle give the ball to Corey? 'Cause if so, I think it's pretty clear that the ball belongs to him. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ~Bill

Hart's wearing number one, the same number he wore last year. And yes, WV Brew, they're crying in Nashville. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif ~Bill

That ball was annihilated!!! Way, way up in the loge bleachers in left. Congratulations, Corey! I hope he gets that ball... what a memory. I don't care what the haters say... I love this team. ~Bill

Wait, Hall bluffed home and then WENT home and scored? Me confused. Sorry, I was talking about the previous play (Lee's flyout). On the grounder, Hall went home right away and made a great slide to toward the back of the home plate area and slapped his hand on the plate to elude the tag of Larue. It was a great slide. ~Bill

YEAH BILLY!!!! Wonderful slide! He just pwnzored Jason Larue... at a boy, Billy! *** Re: Overbay tagging, Dunn made the catch on the run in foul territory, about even with the part of the stands that juts out into the field. Hall bluffed and Dunn threw it home, not to a cutoff man. Overbay tagged up and the Reds didn't even attempt a throw. ~Bill

Great job by Lyle! Austin Kearns has a cannon and he would have had a chance to throw out Rickie, but Ryan Freel has a small handgun (if that) and didn't even make it close. Thanks, Jerry Narron! ~Bill

I think they should have let Rickie try to steal and then bunt him to third. But it worked out beautifully, as Hall laid down a perfect bunt and Belisle looked like Ben Grieve trying to field it. Now let's go Overbay! EDIT: Wait... bunting? ~Bill

It would have been better if he would have stranded two runners. Of course. Jorge threw a lot of fastballs, though, and didn't walk anyone. He got two groundballs from two pretty darned good hitters, neither of which was hit hard. He did spike a slider or changeup to Griffey and fall behind 2-0, but all in all I think that was a positive outing. He's being much more aggressive than he was during the dark days when he worked only a few times per month. *** Belisle takes his throwing hand out of his glove as he's raising his left knee to start his move toward home. I wonder if the hitters can pickup on that... hard to tell from the TV. *** Nice rip, Rickie. Try to steal second? ~Bill

WOW, what a great catch! Take THAT, Austin Kearns! ~Bill

Ehh so much for advancing my Jorge starting thread. He didn't really do anything wrong, did he? ~Bill

He got another grounder, but this time it wasn't right at anybody. Kane Davis time. ~Bill

Does Helms speak Spanish or something? Why does he always join Moeller and Maddux at mound meetings? *** C'mon, Jose! *** EDIT: Thanks, YutakaEnatsu. "Boy, they're getting younger and younger. This Brewers pitching staff is pups, to say the least." ~ Bob Uecker ~Bill