FVBrewerFan
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Everything posted by FVBrewerFan
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Well, one Dominic James is playing for the Bucks summer league team....
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Just not true. I went to the Power 50 archives and randomly picked April, 2005. Who was on the Power 50 at that time? Hendrickson, DeLarosa, Gallardo, Parra, Eveland, Rogers,Sarfate, Jones, Wahpepah. That random Power 50 had more potential than the current pitching prospects. So I understand it may SEEM like they've never had so much pitching talent in the organization as they do right now, it just doesn't hold up to history. In fact, if you look at the Melvin era I would say AA/AAA is below average and A/Rookie is about average compared to every other year since Melvin took over as GM.
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Some folks here have a better memory than I do, but we've been here before, fairly recently. Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, Hendrickson, Fredrickson, Gallardo, and I know there were several others rated very high on the Power 50 at that same time. That group actually had more guys with real filthy stuff compared to the current group. Plus, that above list is stretching it a bit with Bucci, Scarpetta, Anundsen,Fiers, etc. Out of that list, Rivas and Peralta project to be mid-bottom of the rotation type starters. Odorizzi and Heckathorn look like very good so far, but it's just too early. I'll agree the pitching in the system, is deeper than it has been the past 5 years or so, but I don't see guys at this point that project as top of the roatation type starters within the next couple years at least.
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Why not petition MLB to move the walls back? That would hide our not very good pitching staff, and allow them to play more small ball. We have Weeks, Escobar, Gomez, even Braun and Hart with some speed. I really believe the biggest single thing the Brewers could do to win more games is turn Miller Park into Petco. And I don't buy the fact the Brewers have to bash 4 HRs every night for fans to show up. Let's try winning games 3-2 instead of 8-7. Hit and run. Steal bases. God forbid....bunt. Scratch across a couple runs a game, and they still have enough power to score more runs on the road.
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And we've been looking forward to a home-grown rotation for 10 years now. Back before the days of Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, etc. I certainly follow the draft and the minors, but we're still a long, long way from being able to claim a home-grown rotation is on the way. I wish it were so.
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Not to mention those defemsive stats are dependent on help defense and the overall defensive scheme. Is it a team that always doubles with the ball in the post? Does a player have a shot blocker behind him? Lots of variables factor in. Most importantly, the best defenders probably don't fair as well with those stats because they won't get as much help. Coaches will trust them to defend on their own and double elsewhere. For example, When Villanueva was here I'm pretty sure he got help every single time he defended in the post. Dwight Howard probably gets little or no help. Basketball is about team defense. As far as PG goes, this team does not need AI. Even distactions aside, he's just not a very good player anymore and never was a true PG. I still smell a trade coming up. ersan, DelFino, or the Prince for a PG.
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I think we're fooling ourselves here. 1) This is not a mid-upper 80 win team even if they play to their highs. 2) Wolf is not a very solid #3, even if he plays to his norm. Our direct competition is from St. Louis, Garcia is their #3, Wolf isn't close to that. They really need two more arms that are 1/2 types to go along with Yo, and I don't think anyone they have can be projected into that role. Maybe a few years down the road with arms in A ball and lower, but I don't see anyone on the horizon who looks like a 1/2 SP. So really, you have two choices. Keep doing what you're doing and hope you get "lucky" with a few 4/5 type starters. Or, you go for broke and spend a bunch of money on a stud pitecher, and then trade Fielder for another guy who has the tools to become a 1/2 type starter. I really don't know what else can be done. Until this organization can consistently produce it's own pitching talent it will be difficult at best to be a legit contender.
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I don't think Ennder was saying Parra will be a #2 next year. He was saying IF Parra improves, they STILL need a #2 type SP. I don't see much changing next year. They'll try to have 7 arms capable of starting, with none of them being that good other than Gallardo. And sit back and hope you catch lightening in a bottle. Then if they are contending in July, Mark A will go out and trade for a big time arm. This is how they've operated for several years now, so I don't expect that to change. Everyone, including Mark A. and Melvin, know that this team needs at least a #2 starter, probably a couple of them in that range to be a true contender. Realistically, they need a 1A and 1B and then a #2. But they (and we) understand they don't grow on trees. So the plan is to hang around with a good enough record into July, then rent a stud arm for the stretch run and cross your fingers.
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The only stat that matters to me is whether the SP "got the job done" in each start or not. Either they get a plus, minus, or even. An even" would be very similar to the quality start stat. Any thing worse than that is a minus, anything better than that is a plus. This way, you eliminate the one or two best/worst games which can skew the numbers. I look at it this way, because ultimately games are won and lost one start at a time. Either the SP did their job or they didn't. Doesn't matter much to me if the SP gave up 4 runs or 7 runs in a 3 inning outing for example. That's why I give more credence to the "quality start" stat than most here. While "quality" may not be the best term for it...maybe "acceptable" start.
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I think it's as simple as having the Corey Hart disease. (Something Corey has largely cured for the time being.) Which is, very simply, chasing too many balls out of the strike zone- especially outside pitches.
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I like Maggette coming off the bench as well. One thing this team lacked was instant offense coming off the bench, and Maggette is perfect for that. Something tells me there's at least one more deal to get done, trading for a PG. I just don't think they'll be able to afford Ridnour. The more I think about it, I'm fine with the Gooden deal. A big who can play defense and rebound, and has some at least some scoring ability. He can really help this team, plus I would think he could be moved fairly easily with that contract. Salmons on the other hand is a bigger gamble. If he looses a step it really hurts his game. It's built on penetration. If he turns into Charlie bell in two years, the Bucks are stuck with him.
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Jennings and Devon Harris? Not sure that would work.
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If this Gooden deal is done and they actually do resign Salmons, how could they have money left to sign Ridnour, or someone equivalent to him?
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Another item hidden in those numbers is the 8 inning game Narvy had. Shows he's a tleast capable of going deep into a game, and Parra has not.
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Whether we agree with it or not, seems like Macha is dead set on putting Davis back in the rotation. But who comes out? I took a look at the last 5 starts, and through Wolf's numbers in there just for fun: Innings/Start ERA WHIP Parra 5.2 4.19 1.50 Narveson 6 4.19 1.30 Bush 6.1 3.47 1.35 Wolf 6 5.98 1.53 Obviously Wolf will stay in the rotation, but it's interesting the other three SP outperformed him over the last 5 starts. Bush is the guy talked about the most, yet he actually has the best numbers. Looking at this, I would put Parra back in the bullpen for the time being. I would like to see them trade Bush ASAP (I would prefer Wolf but I don't think there will be any takers.) So if that's the goal, you have to leave him in the rotation. Moving Parra to the pen would be temporary until Bush is traded, or until another starter blows up or gets injured. I don't like moving Parra back and forth like this, just seems like it's the best move at this point.
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If Delfino, Salmons, Ridnour, Thomas all come back they would have to cut at least 3 players. They have CDR coming in, along with 3 rookies. There's just not enough seats on the bench for 15 guys.
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The issue, like most, is overblown. I have tried everything to make my signal drop, and it doesn't. I have covered the whole outside of the phone with my hands, etc. and it doesn't drop a call, even in the basement.
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I'll add a couple of thoughts. For that type of job you may want to make it clear that you plan to move down there immediately at your own expense. I know when I get resumes from out of state, I'm wondering if the applicant is expecting us to pay relocation expenses. Wouldn't hurt to mention how much you love the area, want to call it home, etc. By all means, show that you know something about their parks. Finally, if you do get nervous or start to stuuter, use it to your advantage. "I'm sorry if I sound nervous, but I'm just so excited to be talking about my dream job in my dream community." (You can do better than that, but you get the idea.)
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I think Melvin would pull the trigger on a Fielder trade this summer if the deal was good value for the Brewers. But Fielder must have lost at least SOME value with the year he's having. They may be better off taking a bit of a gamble that Prince will pick up his Avg, or more importantly his RBI. Then there will be more trade options in the off-season. Like it or not, ticket sales are a big part of it too. If they trade him in July, it could really put a damper on Sept ticket sales. If they wait, it will give them time to develop a marketing plan for next year that sounds better than "Your 2011 Brewers: Braun, Gallardo, and free nachos every Tuesday."
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I heard Mark A. too, but he really didn't said anything diferent since the day he bought the team. That is, he's always willing to be a buyer if he believes they can make a move that can get them to the post-season. I admire that about him, and he's proven he will do it. But he's practical too, and I don't think he's ready to start buying any time soon. I guess I've just learned to accept and understand Owner/GM-speak in pro sports. Mark A. doesn't want to go on a Brewers broadcast and say "this season is toast, we're going to start dumping players in a couple weeks." He took the optimistic approach, and that's fine with me.
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Veteran leadership is more hype than reality in my opinion. I just don't believe trading those guys qualifies as rebuilding.
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I don't know, the writers on this show are good enough to come up with a new manager, story lines, etc. New manager could be David Wallace, Todd Packer, heck even Creed or Kevin. If Ryan can suddenly get the big corportae gig, virtually anyone could end up being the office manager in Scranton. They could always bring in a new actor, of course. But with all that said, might not be all bad to end the show after next season.
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Well ,there's some guys no coach can "fix." The NBA and individual teams spend a lot of time and money investigating their own, so I'm sure the Bucks know pleny about Beasley. Could be a case where they're convinced he would damage the team chemistry. Point being, they know more about him than we do, so I'll trust Hammond if he takes a pass.
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Lucroy's effect on the pitching staff?
FVBrewerFan replied to bork's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The coaching staff has put an emphasis on throwing more fastballs- especially early in counts and early on in the game. The mix in the off-speed stuff later. (At least that's what i heard from Bill Schroeder.) If that's true, it probably has a lot bigger effect on the results we're seeing than anything Lucroy is doing. With that said, umpires are human. Lucroy does seem to have a subtle way of framing a strike. And if late movement on a pitch "looks" like a strike on the corner, the umpire will be more likely to call it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think it has a very big impact, but even if it's worth 2 or 3 strikes a game, it's a factor. -
I maintain they can be sellers, yet keep themselves in the race at the same time. Trading Edmunds, Counsel, Hoffman, etc. will have little effect on winning games this year. And if you can clear a little salary and pick up a couple decent low minors arms for them, why not? But if they are within 3-4 games at the Break, I woud hold back on trading guys like Hart or McGehee. Fielder I don't even consider, because I just don't think there's any way he gets traded before the end of the season. Then you can see where we are are towards the end of August. You can still try to make trades then. I just don't think there is a dominant team in the division or the NL this year, so may as well hold on to the dream for a bit longer. It's not like trades have to happen in July.