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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Please see the link I posted on page 13 of this thread about the rules regarding trading recent draft picks.
  2. LouisEly
    A very under-the-radar guy who, if he is the PTBNL, you shouldn't get upset about is Joe Palumbo. Lefty draft pick out of HS in 2013, this year he has accumulated 94 K's in 69 IP in low-A. Walks are a little high (3.6/9), he has mostly been a reliever but they just moved him into the rotation and he has started his last two outings. Even if he can't cut it as a starter, if he can maintain that K rate he can be a nasty reliever and closer. The scary thing is that he is listed at 6'1", 150 lbs. I have no idea how he didn't make the mid-season top 30 list, and I would have no issue with him as the PTBNL. Still only 21 years old. I'm guessing/hoping that the PTBNL is one of Matuella, Palumbo, Pedro Payano, or Ariel Jurado. If the Brewers want additional time to scout, Palumbo would make sense in that he has just been moved into the rotation. With Matuella rehabbing, that would make sense too.
  3. LouisEly
    I think this is a good sign that it is a pitcher, as that gives 1) additional time to scout and b) additional time to choose someone else if this pitcher ends up getting hurt, or if the pitcher they want has been hurt and they want to monitor his recovery for a while. Edit: Wondering if they are monitoring Matuella's rehab, with Jurado as a backup plan. I don't think Mendez is out of reach either. Edit 2: Payano is on the 7-day DL too. I'll take some odds that it is one of Matuella, Payano, or Jurado.
  4. LouisEly
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.html
  5. LouisEly
    1) The Indians deal didn't include Jeffress. B) Just my opinion, but I think Mejia and Cheng are very under-rated. In a year or two I think you'll be seeing them very highly ranked on prospect lists.
  6. LouisEly
    No matter how highly ranked, some prospects don't pan out. LaPorta was a top-30 prospect two years in a row. Go back and look at top 50 prospect lists from 6-7 years ago. It's not about 2 highly ranked players vs 1 ranked and 4 lower-level lottery tickets, it's about the fact that X% of ranked prospects don't pan out and that risk needs to be offset by additional quantity. Luc is one of the most valuable players in the game. Two prospects, no matter how highly ranked, isn't going to do it even if it is just for 1.4 years of service time.
  7. LouisEly
    What about Knebel as the closer?
  8. LouisEly
    Somebody posted in another thread that he has a friend who is a scout for the Brewers and the scout's boss asked for details on something like seven guys. There will be more pieces.
  9. LouisEly
    What are the chances that the Brewers flip Susac to the Braves for prospects?
  10. LouisEly
    OK, maybe not so fast on Braun, but Reddick has been hurt and missed quite a few games himself over the last four years so Braun's nagging injuries wouldn't have deterred LA. Braun would have been better too - Reddick is career .750 OPS and .317 OBP.
  11. LouisEly
    This is good because it takes Braun's competition off the market and leaves LA, who has better pitching prospects anyway, to fight with division rival SF for Braun if they want to upgrade their OF. Dominoes are going to start falling now...
  12. LouisEly
    Maybe Stearns can't legally tell a player who he is in discussions with. Maybe it's not a good idea, as the player might say things to people that get leaked, weakening Stearns' bargaining power. Maybe Stearns said, "I'm in serious discussions with a team that, if the season ended today, would make the playoffs. I can't say who, but are you OK with being traded to a serious playoff contender?" I don't know who the other seven no-trade teams are, but if referencing his no-trade clause would have given the team away in terms of who it was perhaps that would have had negative consequences for Stearns in the negotiations. One additional point added to the random musings above: 5) The Cubs didn't get to where they are by focusing on drafting/acquiring young pitching. They loaded up on young bats. Maybe that is the new inefficiency in the market.
  13. LouisEly
    Random observations: 1) splitterpfj, I guess it's just you and me here. I know the deal has fallen through, but several days and about 1200 Lucroy trade posts ago I highlighted Chang and Allen as two underrated pieces of their farm system and not to be upset if they were included in a deal. Allen is a very good CF with plus-plus speed, a .415 OBP this year, and is a switch hitter. That's no throw-in. Chang is a 20-year-old SS with a .837 OPS - the 18th highest OPS in the Carolina League and 6th most HR in that league. That's Isan Diaz (.820 OPS), same age, one level higher. Think about that. Plus bats at CF and SS aren't that easy to find, and can always be traded down the road. B) I think some people don't realize how rare and valuable a young catcher who has both a plus hit tool and a plus-plus arm is. 3) More teams will be in on Lucroy in the offseason than now. And the Red Sox will not be outdone before the trade deadline by the Indians and Cubs of all teams. Dodgers may not make a play now with the uncertainty of Kershaw, but they have all of their core pieces back next year and money coming off the books. They also have pitching, even if Urias goes to the White Sox for Sale; plenty of it. 4) If anyone wants to talk about predictions...
  14. LouisEly
    Something big will happen in the next two days. How do I know? I'm going on vacation for the weekend up to the northwoods where I will likely have no connectivity. It never fails. When I get back Sunday night or Monday afternoon I will have 22 pages of a thread to catch up on.
  15. LouisEly
    TheCrew07, we haven't agreed on a lot over the years but I am pretty much 100% in agreement with what you said, particularly the point about age/ballpark factors adding a "yeah, but" to performance. Very encouraging start by Zack Brown. IIRC the knock on him was walks, and if he can develop some control will be a heckuva draft pick. I also think Wang has come along nicely. For all intents and purposes, this is only his second year of full-time development and having turned 24 earlier this season is not old by any stretch.
  16. LouisEly
    So Cashner + Rea for Naylor, Luis Castillo (#8 on MLB's Marlins prospect list), and Jarred Cosart.
  17. LouisEly
    Yah, Braun is top 25 in all of baseball in OPS. You just don't find those players available. And plenty of teams out there (Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals, etc.) are willing to throw whatever it takes in terms of salary to get great players. 4 yrs/$80M is not going to get you a top-25 OPS player on the free agent market, even with nagging injuries. Case in point - a fat, out of shape, nagging injury, defensively questionable Pablo Sandoval got 5/$95M last year and he hasn't put up an OPS like Braun's this year since 2011 and hasn't been healthy and put up an OPS like Braun's since 2009. Don't try to tell me that Sandoval is better than Braun because he isn't. Thinking the Yankees aren't going to try to reload in the offseason, or that Boston isn't going to try to replace Ortiz with a big bat, or that the Dodgers aren't going to try to upgrade their OF, is closer to wishful thinking.
  18. LouisEly
    Allen would be 3rd/4th pieces in a deal. But I also think that Clevinger is a little underrated (recency effect - poor very small sample major league performance but good minor league numbers) as is Allen (great OBP, speed, and CF defense, improving every year). I'd definitely take McKenzie and Mejia over Clevinger, but I'd take Clevinger over Sheffield. Sheffield is only 5'10", and the list of 5'10" starting pitchers isn't a long list. Yes, Sonny Gray is on that list but he is struggling mightily this year. Diaz has great OBP but the lack of power concerns me a bit; he is 50/50 with Clevinger. Diaz to me is Allen but one level higher, a year and a half older (Diaz turns 25 in two weeks), and a 3B instead of CF - basically a wash.
  19. LouisEly
    Boy, if he could just take a few more outside/low pitches and get that OBP up over .330. Does a great job of not trying to pull pitches and going the other way, and he is still just 25 years old. Good backup/utility guy, but a little more plate discipline and he could be a quality starter.
  20. LouisEly
    The no-trade clause is probably a bigger issue than salary. Don't think that Boston wouldn't love to have him, both now with Young on the DL and next season to replace Ortiz as the DH.
  21. LouisEly
    Depends on what comes back and what else the Brewers do. Assuming they move Lucroy some time between now and the start of next season, if they trade Braun they will have virtually nothing for committed payroll. They could easily assume Kennedy's contract. He hasn't been terrible - the HRs are a concern but his strikeout numbers are still good (9.2/9) and doesn't walk many (3.0 K/BB), plus fewer than one hit per inning. That being said, the prospects would need to be good and Garza would need to go in the deal to at least offset next season. If the Brewers get one top 150 prospect for every year/$12-14M of the contract (seems to be market rate for Hill/Arroyo deals), I'd take three of them to assume Kennedy's contract.
  22. LouisEly
    MILB.com has his birthday as 9-2-1993, 22 years old going on 23. Still, I don't understand why he repeated Arizona Rookie League ball since, in a very small sample, he did very well in 2015 and is 22 years old.
  23. LouisEly
    Has to be the best outing ever for Jungmann. 8 innings, only 99 pitches, just two walks. Confidence is very underrated as a pitcher, and hopefully this gets him back on the right track. I keep forgetting that this is only Wren's fourth year of pro ball (technically only has a little over three full years under his belt). There are reasons to doubt this year's performance, but he was moved though the system quickly and was in AA in his first full year of pro ball. At 25 he's not old by any stretch; maybe he's making the adjustments and the OBP was there last year in AA too. He needs to spend the offseason building strength, but I think it's time to give him a shot.
  24. LouisEly
    It also suggests "shiny new object" syndrome, where people overvalue something because it is new. Orimoloye and Burns, and to a lesser extent Gatewood and Harrison, ahead of Woodruff? I maybe can understand the latter two, but recent 4th round draft picks over a guy who is doing very well at AA? Come on, how many 4th round guys ever do what Woodruff is doing at AA? Their scouting report on Woodruff doesn't jive with what I've read here either; it says "consistently operating in the low 90's", but I seem to recall that it's consistently in the mid-90's while touching 97/98. I even question Nottingham being 10 spots ahead of Woodruff. Maybe a couple of spots, but not 10. I get that he's only 21, but you need to do better than a .635 OPS and questionable defense. Same with Orimoloye, I get that he's only 19 but he was a 4th round pick and not a 1st/2nd round pick for a reason.
  25. LouisEly
    I actually proposed this about 600 posts ago.
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