LouisEly

Taylor now has 1000 PAs at AA and a career .637 OPS at AA. At this point I don't think that he will be someone that teams will take a chance on, and if there are teams looking to add Rule 5 guys there will be better options. Cravy has looked really good since returning from CS. The walks are a bit of a concern, but it looks like the adjustments he's made allow him to hide the ball better (perhaps at the risk of a little lower control). His line for the season looks really good except for one game where he allowed a couple of HRs at the Great American Bandbox. I think he has more value even as a bullpen arm than guys who are at this point a long shot (Taylor, Roache) or profile as bench players (Orf, Rivera). With Suter topping out at 85 I'm not sure how many teams will take a chance on him versus what else will be available. Rivera is a luxury to have if you are a good team, but he's never hit anywhere and I think the Brewers need to focus on keeping higher upside guys (same with Suter - he's decent, but protect higher upside). Perez's development makes Middlebrooks and Cecchini expendable; they were likely overhyped Red Sox prospects to begin with. At this point I'd take the upside of T. Williams, Nolin, M. Diaz, and Barrios over those guys. Sitting at 44 right now: Definitely remove: Boyer, Scahill, Elmore, Wilkins, Nieuwenhuis, Capuano, Goforth, Rivera, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Suter. That leaves 33. Definitely add: Brinson, Hader, Wang, Phillips, M. Diaz, T. Williams, Coulter. That leaves six guys fighting for three spots: Rowen, Houser, Reed, Wren, Ventura, Ross Torn on Houser - I know he'll be out the whole year, but he was so good in 2015; someone could scoop him and stash him for a year. Ross is having a nice year but he's still behind Thornburg/Knebel/Torres/Blazek/Marinez/Cravy/Magnifico for a bullpen spot. I could see the Brewers actually put him on their AA roster to give him a chance with another organization; otherwise the Brewers would have to move some guys (Torres, etc.) for him to have a spot. Rowen has been really good the last two years and has been equally effective against RH and LH hitters; but again, the bullpen is crowded. Wren and Reed are very similar; I doubt both get picked but at this point go with production (Wren). I get the home/road splits concern, but Reed is worse both at home and on the road. Wren is just outproducing Reed; even on the road Wren still has a .378 OBP. At this point I say Houser (highest upside of the group), Rowen, and Wren and roll the dice that Ventura doesn't get picked or doesn't stick.

How do you know that not claiming Braun was due to being on the hook for the contract and not due to luxury tax implications? Is it possible that teams don't want to claim him *now*, but in the offseason once they can clear some salary and get safely under the luxury tax threshold it will be a much different situation? Is it possible that some teams have corner OF covered now but those players are free agents after the season? Is it possible that teams know that he only wants to be in a handful of markets and that acquiring him will likely mean dealing with the headache of demanding a trade later? I thought we established that his no trade clause had some implication on waiver claims, but I can't find those posts. Is it possible that the no-trade clause or his contract does have some stipulations that if he is claimed on waivers by a team not on his list he can declare free agency? That would make claiming him a moot point. That's the only reason I can think of for a team such as Atlanta to not put in a claim for him with the garbage they are trotting out in their OF, and at least a half dozen other teams as well.

Wow, what an AB by Perez. Starts 0-2, works a full count, and an 8-pitch walk. The Hernan Perez of a year ago wouldn't have been able to do that.

Cardinals could really use some bullpen help. If Torres has cleared waivers they should trade for him. Bowman, Broxton, Williams - all inferior options.

I'd argue the correlation between power and BB is the fact that guys who identify strikes better will hit the strikes harder as a result. Juan Pierre is a pretty good counter-argument to that statement. He did a pretty good job of identifying strikes - one of the lowest K rates in the last 40 years - and also had one of the lowest HR rates. Ichiro Suzuki does a pretty good job of identifying strikes too.

If the player requires Rule 5 protection then I'd be surprised if the selection is made prior to the Rule 5 draft. If the player does not need to be protected then it will likely depend on AFL assignment (if assigned, let Texas take the risk and wait until AFL is finished). If the player isn't going to the AFL and isn't eligible for Rule 5, then we would likely hear about the selection by the end of September.

Maybe. In some cases. They would be brutal to deal with in many places though. They would be horrible in many of the main roads in Madison. I would much rather have timed traffic lights. Studies have shown that even in busy traffic areas (shopping centers, etc.) roundabouts that replaced stop signs and/or traffic signals found that vehicle delays were reduced 13–89 percent and the proportion of vehicles that stopped was reduced 14–56 percent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roundabout But the major benefit, and why you find them in more rural areas (drive from Appleton south down the east side of Lake Winnebago), is that they significantly reduce injuries and deaths at 4-way intersections. 75% reduction in injury collisions, 90% reduction in death collisions, and 40% reduction in pedestrian collisions. http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Safety/roundabouts/benefits.htm My grandfather was involved in one of those types of collisions; a couple of teens missed a stop sign and my grandfather t-boned them doing about 45-50 mph. My grandfather survived, but one of the teenagers did not.

Top 5? Top 5...? He isn't even Top 20 this year and I doubt it gets much better over the next 4 years. Include some defense and he is outside the Top 50. Currently he's 14th in OPS in all of baseball.

As I've mentioned before, when it comes to FA they are going to be competing against the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Braves, and the rest of the league with no guarantee that player will sign with them. If they want someone of Braun's caliber, it will cost much more than 4/$76M. With the Dodgers in the luxury tax penalty, if they can't afford to trade for Braun they sure as heck can't afford to get into a bidding war with a FA. Braun is on pace for a 4.6 WAR season (according to B-R.com); on top of a 3.8 WAR season last year, that averages to be 4.2 WAR/year. Let's look at some of the recent free agent contracts that have been signed: Jason Heyward (I think his defense is overvalued in WAR calculations, but for his career he was about a 5 WAR/year player, 6 WAR/year in the two years prior to FA, career .765 OPS): 8/$184M Justin Upton (about 3.8 WAR/year in the prior two seasons before FA, career .813 OPS): 6/$132M Matt Kemp (interesting, 8.2 WAR the year prior to his deal, -1.1 WAR two years prior): 8/$160M (in 2012) Josh Hamilton (avg 3.8 WAR/year the two years prior to his deal): 5/$114M Jacoby Ellsbury (5.7 WAR year before FA, 1.0 WAR two years before, average 3.6 WAR, career .761 OPS): 7/$153M Shin-Soo Choo (3.9 WAR/year the two years prior to FA): 7/$130M Heck, Brett Gardner got 4/$52M, and he has a career OPS of .734 (~.750 in the two years prior to his deal). Plus in a trade the Dodgers can include a Howie Kendrick, Brandon McCarthy, Andre Ethier, etc., to shed salary to get under the luxury tax threshold. Otherwise, if they sign a FA, they are essentially going to have to pay someone to take salary off their hands via prospects. If they want to stay under the luxury tax, it will cost them prospects one way or another.

Among players with at least 100 PAs this year, there is an almost 65% positive correlation between walks and HRs. The more power someone displays, the more they are going to pitch around them, try for the corners, or intentionally walk them, and thus walks will increase. Qualitatively I see Perez laying off of more pitches, not trying to do too much, etc. More plate discipline is needed, but still only 25 and with the Brewers where they are he has shown more than enough to give him a chance to see if he is a late bloomer, somewhat like Nelson Cruz. Unlikely he develops that much power, but Cruz didn't walk much at all until age 27.

Minutely worse now (lower OBP, higher SLG, overall -.003, sitting at .629)... ... but B-R.com has him as a 0.9 WAR player on the season and Fangraphs has him as a 1.3 WAR player. I know that he is an above-average defender, but is replacement-level that bad this year?

The threshold for 2016 was $189M; right now the Dodgers are committed to $179M for 2017 but only $128M for 2018. A lot of what is coming off is either dead money (Crawford, Morse, Arroyo, Guerrero) or veterans who aren't a core part of the team (Ruiz, Kendrick, Howell, Anderson, Utley, Reddick/Hill, Blanton, Chavez). The only key contributors who are free agents are Jansen and Turner; they may let Turner walk and let Segedin take over at 3B. This could be a valuable spot for Gennett - a cheap replacement for Utley. Maldy/Pina could be a cheap replacement for Ruiz. While they aren't very valuable to the Brewers, they are valuable to the Dodgers - cheap yet proven MLB players. Gennett is looking to be a 1.5 WAR player, Maldy so far is 0.5 WAR (but not bad for only having 170 PAs - would project to 1.5 WAR if a full-time starter). They could be added to a Braun trade. Depends on what the Dodgers think of Austin Barnes and where they see him next year - as their 2B or super sub (2B/C). Not sure what Torres would get in arby, but he could have value to the Dodgers if he's cheap enough in 2017. Reports are that Puig is turning it around in AAA - both in performance and attitude. While I don't want him on the Brewers, he could be part of a 3-way deal to clear some salary for the Dodgers. I really do think that one way or another Puig is in Atlanta come 2017. Another option is Andre Ethier - he is only guaranteed $20M more ($17.5M for 2017 and $2.5M buyout for 2018), and while I would not want him in the OF he could move to 1B if the Brewers don't bring back Carter. Brandon McCarthy isn't terribly expensive either, and could be flipped at the deadline in 2017 for more assets. Howie Kendrick could be an option, particularly if Gennett goes. Braun plus one of Gennett/Maldy/Pina for one of McCarthy/Kendrick/Puig plus prospects would minimize the luxury tax hit for the Dodgers. Actually, both of McCarthy/Puig wouldn't be bad as the Brewers could probably flip them for other prospects.

Thanks MrAllen. I had aspirations of doing a similar exercise, as I've had a hypothesis for a while that prep bats are the riskiest type of pick. Obviously it's hard to compare that time frame to now because there was no such thing as comp picks for unsigned players and a bonus pool back then. Signability played a part in who went where. The Drew situation still makes me mad. If he signs with the Phillies, the Cardinals don't draft him the next year. Then the Cardinals don't acquire Wainwright.

My understanding is that it is tougher on RH hitters than LH hitters - I believe the wind blows in from LF making it tough on RH pull hitters, but for RF it is more of a cross-wind and doesn't sap quite as much power for LH pull hitters. Please correct me (politely) if this is not correct. Obviously not every ball is pulled and for good hitters many will be hit opposite field.

ESPN.com has 58 catchers listed as having at least 100 PAs this year, or roughly two per team. Maldy currently ranks 33rd. Offensively he's one of the best backup catchers in the league.

I wonder what the record is for losses in a season, both by a Brewers affiliate and for any affiliated team.

If he cleared, a trade could still happen. An injury to an OF - think of what happened with Braun last week if it had been worse - and suddenly a team has a need whereas when KN was put on waivers that team had no need.

This is one of the benefits of living in a homeowner's association. When you can leverage a couple hundred accounts, they don't play those games with you. Also good that fiber optic companies (Verizon, AT&T, Google Fiber, etc.) are spreading so the choice isn't just cable vs. satellite.

A few years ago the Cubs traded young pitching prospect Andrew Cashner for 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo. I don't think they regretted it one bit. So far I don't think the Brewers regret trading Cy Sneed. I do think it is a bit premature to be talking about Ray, Clark, and Harrison; I think the first two will make it, but it will be 3-4 years before they are ready for the majors (2017 - A+, 2018 - AA, 2019 - AAA). Phillips has some work to do as well and is at least 1.5 years away. Other than Broxton and Brinson, none are really producing to the point where they would bring back a lot in return. I think there is a good chance Braun becomes a Dodger in the next 1.5 years - they have a lot of payroll coming off the books the next two seasons yet have most of their core signed through 2018 and have holes in the OF; I think they will pony up what it will take to pry Braun away. I think Santana eventually moves to 1B, particularly if better defenders (Brinson, Phillips) make it. I think it will be at least 3 years before Ray or Clark will be knocking on the door (2017 A+, 2018 AA, 2019 AAA). Assuming all make it, 2018 could be Broxton/Brinson/Phillips with Coulter pressing mid/late 2018. I also think it's possible that one of Phillips/Coulter won't be anything special.

Garza's LD% this year is 18.1%, below his career average of 19.9%, and his GB% this year is 53.9%, well above his career average of 42.5%, and his FB% is 28%, well below his career average of 37.6%. Among starting pitchers the league average LD% this year is 20.9% and GB% is 44.6%. His LOB% is 63.6%, below his career average of 71.1%; league average LOB% for starters this year is 72%. With a BABIP of .317 (league average .297 for starters), the numbers suggest he has been pitching better than his results. The eye test says it too.

Brett Martin is growing on me. I think it will be one of Martin, Pedro Payano, Joe Palumbo, or Jurado. Not-so-secretly hoping for Palumbo so I can say "I told you so". 21 years old, LHP, 84.1 IP, 65 H, 34 BB, 110 K, 1.90 GO/AO in Low-A. Started year as their closer but moved into starting rotation in July.

Hader said to Burgos, "Anything you can do I can do better...". Rangers Top 30 prospects (Gallo, Guzman, Nicholas) plus Gomez vs. Hader: 0-10, 9 K.

Garza deservedly is off the hook. Gave up all of one extra base hit, a weak fly ball that was barely fair that a decent, experienced LF would probably have caught. Then gave up five ground balls; yes, he made an error on one of them, but you should not give up three runs on a fly ball and five ground balls. Garza gave up two line drive hits - the singles to open up the fourth. Then he got a K, gave up a walk, then got three more ground balls. The problem is that the ground balls were hit where guys weren't. He should have given up two runs, maybe three at most.

And Burgos made the most of it. I suspect that Round Rock has a few free swingers on the team. Much needed start by Lopez as well. Perrin keeps on rolling, and another nice outing for Harber. Harber has had quite a good season - 11.5 K/9, walks a little high but still a decent 3.75 K/9. Harber a 16th round pick, Perrin a 27th round pick, Woodruff an 11th round pick - helps make up a little for the lack of first round draft pick success.

Certainly a candidate, and likely best for someone signed as an undrafted free agent: http://www.greatest21days.com/2015/02/jeff-peterek-great-game-623.html