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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. "Hello, Under Armour, this is Barry Alvarez calling..." The point remains though that they will likely have to add more women's scholarships for something to meet the Title IX required balance, so it's not as simple as the economics of a baseball team. And with the budget cuts, from a political standpoint, it would have to be proven to be cash flow neutral at worst or UW will catch holy hell for slashing budget for other academic programs but adding a sports program that is a financial loss.
  2. And I just bought tickets for tomorrow night's game not 20 minutes ago... But it could have been much worse. I was *this* close to pulling the trigger on a long weekend trip to Seattle.
  3. Not saying this means anything, just pointing out a fun fact. Here are the numbers at AAA this year for Cravy and Hader: Cravy: 56.1 IP, 56 H, 28 BB, 65 K, 5.98 ERA Hader: 56.0 IP, 54 H, 28 BB, 69 K, 5.30 ERA
  4. Only Reddick doesn't have the potential for a QO as he was traded within the above example idea. 4/80mil to get him or that for Braun plus prospects. And again for some reference, Cespedes was paid 27.5mil by the Mets with 47mil the next 2 seasons if he doesn't opt out on his contract....which he may look at the market and say I can do better than 23.5mil the next 2 seasons. Braun has double Cespedes' WAR on the season. But he was worth over 2WAR less last season which is what Braun is ahead by this season. Either way, you comp him to Cespedes and understand one is 5million less per season and a higher floor type of bat with Braun. But costs prospects. Or, you go after the 5million more a season Cespedes who's floor is a lot lower than Braun's but less in age so regression is less plausible. As well as HR power potential creating a higher ceiling than Braun. Doesn't cost prospects. Likely, a QO pick though. Which a team in the top 10 it would cost just a 2nd pick. Atlanta, Angels, DBacks, 1 of Rockies or Phillies He'd fit in fairly nicely for a 2nd round choice. Though Atl at #1 seems a reach, but the other 4 I'd consider the potential. The problem with free agents is that there is no guarantee that they will sign with you. There can be 29 other teams competing for that player's service; in reality more like a dozen, but you have no visibility as to what those other 11 teams are offering. Good agents know how to play the game, and desperate egotistical owners have a tendency to overpay. If you put all your eggs in the free agent basket thinking you can avoid giving up prospects - and then Mike Ilitch comes along and gives Justin Upton $132.8M (almost half of the WAR Braun has put up in roughly the same service time) - so much for that plan of avoiding giving up more than a draft pick, you just lost out. This is my other point - no one even close to Braun's productivity can be signed for anywhere near 4/$76M. Maybe you can get someone for close to the same AAV, but you'll have to take on the risk of a lot more than 4 years and sign that player to age 38/39. The Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels among other teams have a lot of money coming off the books over the next two years and the Braves have already shed most of their payroll. Good luck outbidding them. The reason that examples are picked apart is because often the examples aren't realistic or comparable.
  5. I know that he is only 19, but Orimoloye's OPS is now south of .600. This is why he was not in my top 30 prospects. He has upside, but he has a long ways to go before he reaches it. Heckuva season for Perrin. He's now at 134 innings; I wouldn't be surprised if this was his last start, but with his low walk totals the innings have likely been fairly light. Maybe he can go 150. I'm cautious about guys below AA, but he will likely be higher on my off-season top 25.
  6. According to B-R, Reddick has a career WAR of 17.8 with 5.05 years of service time, which comes to be 3.52 WAR/year. Braun has a career WAR of 44.3 over 8.13 years of service time, or 5.44 WAR/year. If we want to look at just the last two years, Braun has a WAR of 8.1 and Reddick has a WAR of 5.4. Braun is more than slightly superior to Reddick. He's almost worth two more wins per year than Reddick, and I've seen calculations that estimate one WAR to be worth on average $7-8M in salary. Even if it is more like $5M, Braun, in theory, should be worth at least $8-10M/year more on the open market than Reddick. If Reddick can be had for 4/$80, then he is either grossly overpaid or Braun is an incredible bargain. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, leaning towards Braun being a bargain.
  7. Is he the PTBNL from the Jed Bradley trade?
  8. The Angels have up to $60M coming off the books this year, as well as $90M over the next two years from just five players (Weaver, Wilson, Hamilton, Nolasco, Street). The only bad contract they have is Pujols - Simmons' isn't good but it's not awful - and they are getting $150M/year in TV revenue for the next 15 years. That can buy a lot of free agents or take on a lot of contracts and not have to give up talent. They'll suck for two years and have some high draft picks and international bonus pool to bring some talent. The biggest question mark is how Heaney, Tropeano, and Richards will come back from Tommy John surgery. If they can come back, and Artie waits until the 2017-2018 offseason to open up his checkbook, they can be back in it quickly. That $90M coming off... can buy Arrieta ($30M/year), Tyson Ross ($25M/year), Jay Bruce ($17M/year), and Moustakas ($18M/year). I picked the last two because they need LH balance, but the point remains that if they add those four on top of Trout, Simmons, Cron, Heaney, Richards, and Skaggs they will be right back in it.
  9. If there's a team that should take a flyer on Gomez it's Washington. Believe it or not, Gomez's .594 OPS is actually higher than Ben Revere (.575) and not far behind Michael Taylor (.646). Also an upgrade over Matt den Dekker and Brian Goodwin. Heck, has Nieuwenhuis passed through waivers?
  10. After tonight Braun is now 7th in the majors in OPS. Only one OF in baseball has a higher OPS - Mike Trout (and he's .011 higher). That ain't no salary dump.
  11. Interesting the Angels come up because they really need some LH balance, which is the strength that Gennett brings to the table. I was looking at the possibility of Braun to the Angels, because they have Weaver and Wilson coming off the books this year ($40M) and Hamilton ($26M) and likely Nolasco and Street ($21M) coming off the books after next season. But then I realized that they pretty much have nothing for prospects to trade.
  12. Colorado Springs box score Biloxo box score Brevard County box score Wisconsin box score Helena box score AZL box score
  13. I'm tired of hearing about Southwest being a low-fare carrier. Two months ago I looked at flying to LA out of MKE - only a few days in advance. Cheapest fare on Southwest - $1000. Flew Delta for $540. Looking at going to SEA for the weekend series; again, cheapest fare on Southwest - $1000 (MKE or Midway). Delta - $650 (American non-stop out of ORD - $530). Yes, they can have some low fares - if you can plan 5 months in advance and fly on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or maybe Saturday.
  14. I had the Brewers picking Brown in the 3rd round; to see him there in the 5th was just as much of a bargain as Burnes (MLB.com had him at #80; Brewers got him at #141). He wasn't terribly wild at UK, he just got hit around a bit as a junior and there were reports that said they wouldn't let him throw his changeup much. His sophomore year was much better. I wonder if the UK stadium has short fences because all of their starters gave up quite a bit of HRs; maybe it was the pitch calling. What makes me mad is seeing Luke Weaver making his debut for the Cardinals tonight. I wanted him or Newcomb as the Brewers first round pick in 2014.
  15. Between the trades of Hill, Lucroy, and Smith and with Guerra, Barnes, Middlebrooks and Santana on the DL most of the would-be September callups are already in MKE. Barring any trades (Torres, Boyer, Braun, Garza) I don't think there will be much for callups. I think one of Boyer/Torres will get dealt or Boyer will get released to have the opportunity to sign on with a contender creating a spot in the bullpen - I'm guessing Magnifico takes that spot. Jungmann has earned his way back, although I could also see the Brewers letting him end the season on a high note with some confidence. I'm guessing Lopez is on the DR reserve list as he pitched on the DRWL team last year so they will likely rest him in September, but I could see him getting called up just to have bullpen sessions with Tunnel. Barnes and Guerra coming off the DL will fill the rest of the pitching spots; I think they'll be cautious with Guerra and put him in the pen. If Boyer, Torres, or Garza are moved I could see them bring up Hader since they have to add him anyway. Susac for sure - they almost always want three catchers in September. I don't think there is room for Rivera - they want Arcia getting lots of work, Villar needs the work at 3B, Middlebrooks will come off the DL, and if Santana is activated then Perez will get the sub work in the infield. Not sure about Reed - if they activate Santana they will have six OF (Braun, Broxton, Santana, Perez, KN, Flores). Maybe if KN gets traded/released or if they shut Santana down. If a roster spot is created I could see them adding Wren and bringing him up. Assuming Guerra, Barnes, Middlebrooks, and Santana are activated I think it's just Susac, Magnifico, and probably Jungmann. If Barnes isn't activated then Jungmann will be for sure, and if any roster spots are created I'm guessing Hader or Wren.
  16. Bickford and Devin Williams with a combined 15 K over 9 innings today. That and Coulter pretty much the only bright spots in the entire org tonight.
  17. Colorado Springs box score Biloxi box score Brevard County box score Wisconsin box score Helena box score DSL Brewers box score
  18. Reminder about the ineligibility of Latin-based players. Ventura is from the Dominican Republic, as is Guzman who played in the AFL last year. Why would Guzman be eligible and Ventura not?
  19. This is a better way of saying what I meant - "coveted" and not "needed". Obviously they are needed, but I meant "needed to acquire" which means "coveted".
  20. Doubt Woodruff - he is already 17 innings over last year, and considering he already has 66 more K's than last year they are probably heavier innings with more pitches than last year. And we still have almost 3 weeks left. Assuming three more starts, that's around 18 more innings, putting him around 35 more innings (and a lot more strikeouts) than last season. They likely will shut him down. Ray should get some time off - full college season plus pro season. The Brewers almost always send pitchers who missed time with injury and need to get caught up. Not sure where T. Williams will be in terms of rehab but if ready he is a candidate. Angel Ventura is 25 innings short of last year's total, and they need to figure out if they want to add him; sending him to the AFL will give other teams more scouting on him though, but given he has fewer innings I think that is a good bet. If Barnes is healthy he is a good bet. Not a sexy pick but I'm going with Stephen Kolscheen, ~30 fewer IP than last year, fringe guy who the Brewers need to figure out if can compete for the last bullpen spot. Austin Ross is another guy who they need to make a decision on. That whole Biloxi lineup - Taylor, Phillips, Nottingham, Betancourt, Coulter, DeMuth, even Cooper could all go. If Guzman is on the table as the PTBNL then the Brewers may want to see more of Cooper or DeMuth before making a decision on Guzman. They will need to make a decision on Taylor so he might get the nod over Phillips or Brinson I'll go with BrinsonTaylor, Nottingham, one of Cooper/DeMuth, Kolscheen, VenturaLambson, and Ross with Barnes and Williams as higher pitching priorities if they are healthy.
  21. Jungmann's performance since going to Biloxi (.194 BAA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.77 ERA) seems to indicate that he wasn't pitching that much over his head (at least not to the extent of a 9.15 ERA vs 3.77 ERA). As for AAA, Colorado Springs does weird things to pitchers - just ask Hader, Lopez, etc. And Peralta's fall started exactly two starts (specifically Sept 16th) before Johnson got here; as of Sept 15th his ERA was 4.14 (this year 6.38). He was up and down after coming off the DL last year, but his starts on Aug 30, Sept 5 (rain delay IIRC, neither starter went beyond 3 IP), and Sept 10th were pretty darned good - to the tune of a combined 1.80 ERA over 15 innings. (His starts on Aug 8th and 14th were pretty good too.) So who has Johnson helped since he got here? If the answer is "no one", then don't you have to question the hire?
  22. Baseball team and fans aside, that would not be a bad thing.
  23. Well, here we are at the middle of August. Another poster questioned this move early this year and the thread got quickly locked, but where are we now? Jungmann and Peralta majorly regressed and got sent down. Nelson's peripherals are almost all worse. Anderson's K's are up but everything else worse than last year. Guerra was pitching great but now on the DL. Davies pretty much the same. Garza has been up and down since coming off the DL but better since the All-Star break. Have we gained anything here? (And can we have a civil discussion about it?)
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