LouisEly
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Everything posted by LouisEly
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Well, the one thing that all of those teams have in common is multiple consecutive years of top-10 picks. The Royals missed on a few, but that's because they had about a decade of top 10 picks. The Astros missed on a few, but the Astros and Cubs have capitalized on two other things: 1) the Astros used the bonus pool given to #1 overall picks to sign later round picks to above-slot values and in essence get multiple 1st/2nd round values (not necessarily picks) which made up for some missed picks, and b) the Cubs spent heavily in the international free agent pool (Cuba, and I believe they went over the pool limit last year?), giving them the equivalent of multiple 1st/2nd round picks. It's not just high draft picks that the Brewers get, but also a bigger international signing bonus pool. That can bring in a couple other 1st/2nd round values.
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I think that Toronto really regrets not trading for Cotts or another LHRP. They sure could have used another bullpen lefty against KC. -
Nothing to do with the fact that he had the second best save percentage in MLB last year, is two years younger than Madson, was an All-Star each of the last two seasons, and didn't miss three seasons with injury like Madson either. Trevor Hoffman had a pretty good career throwing high-80's fastballs and changeups after age 30. He says hello.
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One thing to keep in mind is that the Brewers, like every other ML team, only have 40 roster spots for players at the majors and upper minors. Most guys need to be added to the 40-man before they are ready for the majors, which only leaves room for 15 guys in the upper minors who are not major-league ready. You can have too many upper-level prospects; if you don't have room on the 40-man then you may lose them to the Rule 5 or to waiver claims. These guys won't need to be protected for a few years, so this could be 40-man roster management. If a trade for Lucroy is imminent (clearing a couple of 40-man spots, getting Pina from DET) they might need lower-level guys in this deal simply because they don't have the roster spots. Maybe not this year, but possibly next year or the year after.
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Oh, it has a lot to do with his domestic violence issues because of the new policy instituted by MLB back in August. The owners knew it was coming which is why the Brewers weren't able to trade him in July. Behavior is repetitive and teams must be scared to death of giving up value if he indeed does repeat his behavior. 35-year-old Ryan Madson got 3/$22M, and teams are scared of K-Rod's salary? I don't think so.
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Well, there's this guy named R.A. Dickey who started throwing a knuckleball in 2005 and after being named the PCL Pitcher of the Year for the Brewers in 2007 was let go. While it's unlikely that the Brewers would have traded him for Syndergaard and d'Arnaud, they might not have had to trade for Grienke (or Marcum) if they had a little more patience with him. Especially for an organization that was void of pitching.
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If this guy is such a valuable asset, why is he on his fourth organization at the age of 25?
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Cardinals trade Jon Jay for Padres' Jedd Gyorko
LouisEly replied to bill hAll Star's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They had to replace the guy whose last name is pronounced "Poo-holes". -
30-year-old (almost 31) Jeff Samardzija just got 5/$90M. Last season he was almost as bad as Garza - led the league in hits given up as well as earned runs and home runs, and his K rate dropped by 1.1 K/9 from 2014. Samardzija is 14 months younger than Garza, and is now signed through age 35 at $18M/year. Garza is signed through age 34 at <$13M/year. Starting pitching is expensive.
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You forget that ERA+ factors in relievers, not just starters, and in this day of bullpen specialization a 3.75 ERA from a reliever is mediocre. While starters account for ~60% of innings pitched (5.8 IP/start last season), relievers account for ~40% of innings pitched. I'm not sure how to calculate it just for starters, but an ERA+ of 105 for a starter is better than for a reliever. No matter how you cut it, it is above average. Also, it has been calculated (this was a year or two ago) that one WAR is on average worth ~$7-9M in salary league-wide. His 2.0 and 2.7 WAR seasons would have been worth approximately $16M and $21.6M in salary from an equivalent player, making him and his salary those seasons a bargain. I'd strongly argue that is not "mediocre" performance. The 1.0 WAR in 2012 was due to making only 18 starts; extrapolate it to 32 starts and you have a WAR of ~1.8, worth about $14.4M in salary. Based on that, yes, I'd say that plenty of GMs wold take a chance that he would recover to career norms because prior to last season his salary was a bargain. Regarding park factors, and if you want to limit the analysis to performance since 27 (we'll say since he left TB), Globe Life Park in Arlington is rated as the 15th most hitter-friendly park, Wrigley Field the 10th most hitter-friendly, and Miller Park the 2nd most hitter-friendly. He hasn't had the benefit of having half of his starts in Petco, Citi, or Dodger Stadium.
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I can't be the first person to say "Bad Santa". "I'm a living, breathing, eating..."
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Excluding his rookie season and last season, how are ERA+ of 104, 105, 105, 118, 100, 110, 119. and 117 as a starting pitcher in predominantly hitter-friendly ballparks (MIL, TEX, CHC) "mediocrity"?
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Exactly. Garza's a 2-year, $30M risk. The Reds are paying Homer Bailey almost that much to not pitch in 2015 and 2016 due to TJ. Zimmermann's a 5-year, $110M risk. Plenty of GMs would rather take a $30M risk that Garza will rebound than a $100M risk on a free agent pitcher.
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Regarding deer - don't swerve into the ditch to avoid hitting one. If you miss the deer and do damage to your vehicle you cannot prove that you swerved to avoid hitting a deer - your claim may end up getting denied. Best to hit the deer the least amount possible, but make sure you hit it. About 20 years ago I had coyote fur embedded into my bumper that helped prove that I hit one. Just cosmetic damage mostly, a cracked bumper and broken turn signal. Much better than hitting a deer.
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Right, but you have to balance the reward of not putting them on the 40-man with the risk of losing them. That's why I said put the best 38, not 40 - leave a couple of spots for roster flexibility so you won't have to remove the player if other opportunities come up. Or, to answer the original question, the player in question is better than people think.
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Well, they have 40 slots, so they might as well use them just in case. Put the best 38-eligible on the roster and leave two spots open just in case someone interesting slips to you, another team wants you to take someone for them and you can make a trade, or another team has to remove a player and you can make a claim.
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Jim Perry, host of two of my favorite game shows from when I was a kid (Card Sharks and Sale of the Century) has passed away at the age of 82 after a long bout with cancer. "Higher!!!"
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Who on God's green Earth is the one coming up with these lists of "Security Questions"??? I'm not married so the wedding questions are irrelevant, as are the questions about any children. How am I supposed to have favorite things when I like a lot of things? How are you supposed to choose favorites? Don't favorites change as you are exposed to more and new things? Who the hell remembers where they were on New Year's Eve in 2000, much less who their grade school teachers were? I can't decide which team I want to lose more, the Cubs or the Cardinals. Why can't you ask me questions whose answers are concrete and static - parent's/siblings middle names, grandparents first names, street I grew up on/lived on when I was five, elementary school I went to, height, or make of car I own?
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Minor league RHP Cy Sneed to Astros for SS Jonathan Villar
LouisEly replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Last year Segura walked 13 times in 584 plate appearances and Gennett walked 12 times in 391 plate appearances. I seem to recall a stat that at one point in the season Gennett swung at over 40% of pitches outside of the strike zone (IIRC it was highest on the team), and I'm sure it is very high for Segura as well. I don't think either Segura or Gennett is in Stearn's long-term plans. And the Brewers are probably going to win less than 80 games so I don't think it makes a difference if Villar plays 3B. -
Why couldn't it be Castellanos, Matt Boyd, or Bruce Rondon? The rules state that it can't be an active major leaguer between the time of the trade and when the player is named, but nobody will be an active major leaguer for the next four months. If the player is on the 40 they only have to clear waivers after the July 31 trade deadline; that doesn't apply in the offseason. Maybe it's one of Castellanos or James McCann, depending on whether the Brewers trade Lucroy this offseason? Just to give everyone here nightmares tonight... a player who was traded for a PTBNL could be the PTBNL. It has happened four times in major league history.
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Bummer Game05. We were rooting for you. Take what you've learned and devise a plan for the next time. I wonder what would happen if one major cellular provider and one major cable/satellite TV provider took half of the money they spent on advertising and spent it on customer service instead. That being said, if you ever go into a cellular provider store for a while you'll notice that most of the people they deal with are people who have virtually no money but think they need to have a cell phone. How much does customer service deteriorate because most of the people they deal with can't (or won't) pay their bill? That being said, what would happen if one cellular provider said you can't get a phone with us unless you have a credit score of at least 660? What would their customer service be like?
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I think it has everything to do with the Rule 5 draft coming up. It could be a guy who could be picked, but if Detroit has a low-ranked farm system would they have anyone who is in danger of getting picked? Wouldn't they be able to protect every decent prospect on the 40-man? I think ZBTMP is on to it: Any particular reason why they'd be a "Named later" in November. On the 40 man? It could very well be one of Detroit's top prospects, and the Brewers want the Tigers to use a 40-man spot for the Rule 5 draft as well as the next few months until the Brewers can clear another 40-man spot by dealing Lind. This allows the Brewers to get an upper-level prospect from the Tigers as well as nab someone in the Rule 5 draft and have an extra roster spot for up to 6 months.
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Miller is merging with Bud… effect on Miller Park?
LouisEly replied to brewmann04's topic in Off-Topic Forum
I have access to quite a bit of industry data. That infographic is just for the U.S., and as mentioned, the U.S. is but a fraction of the global population and beer business. If craft has 20% of the market, then imports and macro have 80%. If you read the industry blogs, right now craft brewers are "blowing up the phones" of the big brewers looking to be sold. You have 3000+ craft brewers (but not all have packaging capability) competing for, on average, less than 200 slots in grocery (where the most off-premise beer is purchased) and, on average, less than 40 total slots (tap and bottle) on-premise. (Yes, there are grocery stores with >200 slots and restaurants/bars with >40 slots, but it's well less than 10%.) It's extremely hard for craft to expand beyond their local geography because they will run into other local competition if they try to expand. Denver now has 60 breweries; good luck expanding into that market. Once they lose the "local" card, their sales pitch runs dry. And big brewers are buying craft breweries. Craft needs ownership by big breweries to get beyond local distribution, and distribution is the #1 driver of sales. The industry is changing, but if the market is shifting to craft then big brewers will simply buy craft breweries, and the big brewers will do just fine. And, as mentioned, right now craft breweries are desperate to be sold to big brewers. -
Miller is merging with Bud… effect on Miller Park?
LouisEly replied to brewmann04's topic in Off-Topic Forum
A vast majority of the world's beer drinkers are middle-class or less in income, and a vast majority of the time they will choose a 12-pack for $11 (or a case for $18) over a 6-pack for $9 or a 23-oz. bomber for $8. A vast majority of beer drinkers view craft as a "treat" or a "reward", and choose macro brews most of the time. Also remember that the United States accounts for about 4% of the world's population, and even if you exclude the half of the world's population that lives in poverty the US accounts for less than 10% of the world's population that can economically afford beer. Craft is growing, but don't confuse growth for share. Craft holds less than 15% of the beer market, and 70% of that is by national brands (Sam Adams, Sierra Nevada, Leinenkugel's, Shock Top, Goose Island, etc.), many of which are owned by the big boys. Craft also has fairly low brand loyalty and lot of switching/trial, which doesn't bode well for sustaining a brand. There is also the marketing phenomena of choice overload; the more choices a person is presented with, the less likely they are to buy. And with so many different craft beers out there it just makes it harder for consumers to choose them. Yes, their share is down from their heyday, but it is nowhere near a Titanic metaphorical reference. And personally, I think that a Busch Light or Miller High Life tastes better (to me) than any type of pale ale.
