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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. "Top of the farm system" could mean AA as well. No OF at Brevard has really deserved to get promoted. Coulter could easily start 2016 back in Brevard, and even if Roache stays at Biloxi their OF would be Taylor, Roache, and... ? That being said, I think there are better uses for that 40-man spot so this could be just an audition and then outright him after the Biloxi season ends, assuming he hasn't been outrighted yet.
  2. Tell your client that you'll sell them to his buddies for $4000. If he was stupid enough to pay $9500 for them, he has to have friends that would be stupid enough to pay $4000 for them. Or offer to trade them on Craigslist for something with a value of $5000. Maybe your client's buddies have a $5000 car or motorcycle they would trade for them. Then sell that for $4000. Also, I'm guessing the type of person that would purchase/wear those probably isn't in high supply in the Fox Valley or on eBay. Try listing them on Craigslist in Chicago.
  3. They wouldn't even have to do that. Just contract with local restaurants/caterers. You can get quality meals prepared in bulk for no more than $12-15/per person if that. A protein, fruit/veggies, starch (rice or potatoes). At 35 people, that's $420-$525/meal; so roughly $1000/day at most for lunch & post-game. 30 days per month, five months for the season, you're talking $150K/team/year. Teams could easily offset that by giving the restaurant/catering company some advertising space, and restaurants would probably take a smaller margin in order to guarantee 150 orders over the course of a season. Drop meal money down to $5/day for breakfast, and the net increase isn't that much.
  4. Only when you are recently out of school. I just finished the UW MBA program in May -a top-10 public school MBA program - and I'm still looking because I'm a career switcher. Great phone interviews, but decisions are still made on paper, and if a hiring manager isn't connected to the MBA program I usually get nowhere because they value experience more than the MBA program. Once you get 3-4 years of experience in your field things get much easier. I would have been employed before graduating if I had 3-4 years of experience in my field prior to the MBA program. One last bit of advice. Every job can generally be classified as one of two types - a revenue-generator or a cost center. Revenue-generating positions (typically sales) get filled quickly (unless there is some major realignment coming soon), so I'm assuming your field is a cost center. Think about that from the employer's perspective. Then focus not on you (when they will make a decision), but on them and how you will justify the cost of employing you. Focus on what you can do for them, how you can solve their problems; focus on how you can either a) increase revenue or b) reduce costs. Find out what their biggest problems are, and tell them how you can help solve them.
  5. There is a point where time spent pursuing this could be used for searching for another opportunity. Your time is your most precious resource. The unemployment rate has (supposedly) dropped to the low 5% range; things will start opening up. If you are running into "experience" concerns from potential employers, an idea might be to find a charity to do pro-bono work for in your field. They are always looking for professionals to help with running their charities, and you can make a lot of connections working with charities too. Build your experience and make connections, that's the best thing you can do for yourself.
  6. And apparently I'm not the only person to feel that way, as they have new commercials - in which Col. Sanders is being played by 51-year-old Norm McDonald - that make fun of these old commercials. You may want to test your commercials before you air them. That's what your consumer insights/marketing research department is for.
  7. Melvin has said that the reason they didn't draft Bumgarner was because of his arm slot. So it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case with Sale. A funny story about Sale is that the reason the Mets drafted deGrom was because they were scouting Sale and deGrom was the opposing pitcher in that game. deGrom, having been converted from a SS that season and recently moved to the stating rotation, wasn't real high on anyone's radar until that day. They take a flyer on him in the 9th round, and the rest is history. Sometimes scouting is about being at the right games at the right time. You can't have scouts watching every game.
  8. Pena's slider is so good it even fools the home plate umpire, apparently. Between five strikes to Prado in the third and Santana misplaying two grounders he's really getting jobbed.
  9. His first HR was a line drive to LF in Philly, about 20 feet right of the foul pole. Left the yard in about two seconds. They said last night that Santana has seen more pitches per AB than any Brewers player since his callup. It seems like his strikeouts have mostly been looking on pitches on the edges. He had a good walk rate in the minors, and coupled with seeing more pitches than average I would assume that his strikeouts are mostly looking. He's not a hacker that whiffs on three pitches with the third being 10" off the plate. I'd rather guys strike out looking on a pitch on the edge than whiff or hit a weak grounder on a pitch 10" off the plate.
  10. I understand the spin you're trying to put on this, however I'll ask how is spending any money on a below replacement level performance a good deal? I understand the point you are trying to make and generally agree with the principle. However, this assumes that in-house or cheap FA replacement level pitchers were available. I can't speak for free agents, however Jack Z's last few drafts didn't exactly stock the cupboard with starting pitching. You can point to Seid, but Garza was signed prior to the 2014 season. It generally takes at least 3-4 years for a college-drafted pitcher to make the majors, and at least 4-5 years for high school pitchers to make the majors. Thus only Seid's first two drafts would have had the time to be ready to step in prior to the 2014 season (only his first draft could have possibly expected a HS pitcher to be ready). For all the criticism that Seid got, every draft of his produced a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Despite the botched first two rounds of 2009, he came away with Fiers and Cravy (and Burgos). In 2010 the Covey pick was a MLB failure, not a Brewers failure, but they still came away with Nelson and Thornburg (and as a HS pick, Covey wouldn't have been ready by 2014). In 2011 they came away with Jungmann and Lopez (and everyone knew Lopez was at least five years away). Fiers and Thornburg were up in 2+ years, but it took Nelson and Jungmann four years to get ready. Jack Z's last three drafts yielded Odorizzi, Scarpetta, and Hand as anything relating to starting pitching prospects. Yes, Odorizzi was traded, but there should have been more than him coming from three drafts. That's why the franchise got to where they had to dip into the FA starting pitching pool. Replacement level wasn't available in-house; thus Garza's win value last year is likely higher than the WAR numbers suggest because alternates would probably have been below replacement level. (If they would have went with Thornburg, he lasted only two months in 2014 before his elbow injury; FA's aren't available in June. Then they certainly would have had to use below replacement-level.)
  11. It has been well documented that Jose Fernandez would have only signed with Miami or Tampa, thus why he was still available where he was. The Brewers could have had Trout... if Teixeria had one less hit in 2008. The Brewers would have had the Yankees comp pick, which turned into Trout, and still made the playoffs (and generated the playoff revenue). I'm working on an analysis of the impact of the draft bonus pool implementation in 2012 and unsigned pick compensation in 2010 by looking at the 2011 and 2009 drafts. If you rank players based on signing bonuses in the 2011 draft, Jungmann comes in at #16 and Bradley comes in at #21. Remember, the Bradley pick was not protected because it was a comp pick from the year before, and thus it didn't matter what the Brewers did, that pick spot could not change. (And there was no way the Brewers could have taken a HS kid with that pick since it was not protected. Any halfway competent agent would have leveraged that to the hilt.)
  12. Clark finished strong, with a .858 OPS and struck out less than 20% of his ABs. His OPS vs. lefties was .799, suggesting that he could be serviceable against MLB lefties and not have to be platooned. His OPS vs. righties was .895, suggesting that he could be a good platoon partner with Rogers if the Brewers move Lind and go that route. Not spectacular, but did well enough to warrant coming back in some fashion, be it on the 40-man or as a NRI with a ML spring training invite and the inside track on the AAA 1B job.
  13. Bingo. The value that the Brewers could get in return for players such as Lind, K-Rod, Segura, Garza (next season obviously), Lucroy, etc., who are playing well should more than offset the difference between having the 5th overall pick and the 10th overall pick.
  14. With Arcia on the near horizon there is a very real chance that the Brewers shop Segura this offseason and go with Sardinas at SS next year. Possible they shop Gennett too, if they are eyeing Arcia at SS and Sardinas at 2B in 2017. He's a decent prospect, but not someone who will likely break the bank in arbitration.
  15. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and that applies to 2015 just as much as pre-2015. No one knows how he will pitch next year, but what is clear is that 2015 for whatever reason is the outlier. Using the Gallardo trade as a comp, if Garza returns to 2014 form the trade package the Brewers could get would be at least the equivalent of Sardinas/Knebel/Diplan (top 100 prospect, potential closer, high upside low level SP). The opportunity to add another prospect haul like that to the organization is too valuable to pass up. Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez, both very similar in age to Garza, have had multiple and consecutive poor seasons but now would fetch a very nice haul in a trade. A.J. Burnett had back-to-back poor seasons at age 33 and 34. They Yankees dumped him after that age 34 season in 2011 and gave cash to the Pirates to take him off their hands. Oops. The potential return that Garza could fetch at the trade deadline next year - if he returns to career norm - is too valuable to not take that chance. Absolutely give him 2016 to rebound. I don't know that Lopez and Wagner are ready to make the jump from AA, and spending a year in the bullpen did nothing to hurt the development of Carlos Martinez or Adam Wainwright.
  16. Shall we call you Nostradamus?
  17. I don't agree with this assessment. Among those with at least 300 PAs: Braun is 7th (of 32) in OPS Davis is 9th (of 26) Lucroy is 12th (of 25, even with his horrible start) Lind is 8th (of 27) Gennett is 19th of 31 and Segura 24th of 31, both below average but not terrible. The only position that I would consider "terrible" would be 3B (Herrera/Perez would be about last) and maybe SS (but I think Segura has above-average defense). Then you have Santana, who certainly is talented. As for pitching, you have Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta who certainly are talented and nowhere near terrible. Garza is having a terrible season, for sure. But the bullpen is stellar - MIL has the 3rd highest save % among all 30 teams. K-Rod is one of the best in the game, as are Smith and Jeffress, and Thornburg and Knebel have been solid. Some 7th/8th relievers have been terrible (Guilmet, Wooten, Kintzler, Broxton, Goforth), but all except Goforth are gone. Jimenez has done his job so far; in a very small sample he hasn't been terrible. But almost every team has a bad 5th starter and 7th/8th bullpen guys. "Terrible" - except for 3B, Garza, and Goforth - I just don't see.
  18. If someone did that to Nolan Ryan (or Bob Gibson, or Roger Clemens...) the next one would be at his chin.
  19. To me it sounds like it is a matter of whether they think it will be financially worthwhile to fill the position, not a matter of you as a candidate. Behind the scenes, that's why a lot of these decisions get put off - they aren't sure of their financial situation and whether they need someone in that role. I think the question to ask is, how important is the position to that company's success and continued operation? Had this a couple of months ago - they really liked me, things got put off, things got put off some more, then they decided to eliminate the position.
  20. It's about getting that one day in the bigs. While a first-year AAA player gets paid $2150/month, the minimum minor league salary for a player with major league experience is >$80K/year (season?). For $80K per year/season, you'd have to tear my jersey away to get me to quit playing baseball.
  21. With Cravy on the DL they need a 5th starter. Davies is the exception.
  22. I don't know about excelling under pressure; I'm sure there are guys who maybe have more focus or an extreme competitive nature that may help them in pressure situations. But I really believe that there are people who fold under pressure. And that is what a closer is - someone who can handle the pressure of the last inning. While the last inning isn't any more important than any other in determining the outcome, there is more pressure in the last inning. Fans standing and cheering, knowing that you are the last thing standing between the team and victory. There isn't as much pressure in earlier innings because you know you have several innings left to get those runs back. But in the bottom of the ninth you have no chances to get those runs back. You have to come through. And if you don't come through - and believe it or not, the best closers in the game don't come through a handful of times each year - you have to shake it off and come back the next night/time. I don't know about paying closers eight figures, but I do believe that they warrant more pay than other relievers if they can continually perform under pressure.
  23. Another good start for Pena. All six hits given up were singles, and two of the three singles in the first inning were ground balls.
  24. Not sure how they compare defensively - I assume Dominguez is better - but offensively he's shown more than Dominguez so all things being equal I'd probably go with Olt. That being said, I'd be surprised if he made it past MIA or ATL. MIA only has one year left committed to Prado, and no upper level 3B prospects to take over. He can be the backup corner infielder for a year before taking over in 2017. ATL is trotting out 30-year-old Adonis Garcia and his below-average defense and OBP, and Rio Ruiz has struggled making the adjustment to AA so they have no homegrown 3B arriving anytime soon.
  25. Atlanta is 1-9 in their last 10 games, and now the Brewers have one more win than ATL. "Up" to sixth position now. A's two wins ahead, BOS and DET five wins ahead, so it will be difficult to be picking worse than 7th.
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