gregmag

Laynce Nix, although I think nothing of him as a prospect, is notably on fire. What more can Mat Gamel possibly do? Other than throw, I mean. Best game ever for Roque Mercedes? Is it too early to think about moving Komatsu up? He's just toying with people -- 4 walks against one K to go with all his thunder. Greg.

This is probably old news, but I just noticed that Jon Lucroy and Angel Salome were born less than a week apart. The fact that Lucroy is a legitimately exciting prospect really puts what Salome is doing at AA in some kind of perspective. Greg.

First, when is it a bad thing to be healthy enough to play in every single game in a season, much less mentally strong enough and good enough? It isn't a bad thing at all, in and of itself. It isn't a helpful thing, though, when you take up space that better players could fill. Lots of healthy athletes are bad ballplayers. Second, for as little as he walks, he has walked more times in his career than he has struck out. Again, this indicates a certain skill, but not a useful one. Walks help to score runs. Not striking out doesn't help to score runs, when all you do with those balls in play is make outs in other ways. Pierre makes more outs than almost anyone in baseball. Third, with as much as he puts the ball in play coupled with his speed, he puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team. I don't buy this, and no one has ever shown it to be true. People just say it, as if it's self-evident. I don't mean to slam you in particular, because people seem to make this claim a lot, but can anybody show how grounding out a lot and being fast helps to score runs? Stolen bases, of course, do help to score runs, but that we can quantify, and it doesn't add enough to Pierre's game to justify his advocates' argument. Is he an all-star? No. Is he "pretty terrible"? Not remotely. As I suggested above, we'll have to agree to disagree. I think a guy with a career OPS+ of 84 who soaks up PAs day in and day out hurts the team a lot. I think, pound for pound, he's one of the worst everyday players in the game. Now, that's a somewhat misleading claim, because obviously lots of guys who don't get to play every day are tons worse; their deficiencies are plain. Pierre's particular offense is that his .300 average and speed make him look so much more useful than, IMHO, he actually is. Greg.

Would it be a stretch to say that Brantley may be a Juan Pierre with a little less speed but better plate discipline? As maligned as Pierre is, the dude has played in 162 games five consecutive seasons and has four 200 hit seasons (and a fifth with 196). He ain't that terrible. He's pretty bad, IMHO. We don't get excited when other guys rack up 200 hits in a season and a half; Pierre just gets half again as many ABs as other people by staying healthy, batting leadoff, and refusing to walk. Agreeing to disagree about Pierre's merits, I don't really see the comparison. Pierre's offensive game is (was?) defined by speed and refusing to walk; that's who he is. Brantley is, at this point, defined by taking walks and being an excellent percentage base stealer. Yeah, they're both high average, low-power guys, so in that sense they're similar. But averages fluctuate, and Brantley has plenty of time to develop power. He has now (mostly since your post quoted above) more than doubled his career HR total in just over a week; if that's not an aberration, he could be a player like Juan Pierre never dreamed of being. Greg.

Brantley reinforced his stereotype today with three walks, but over his past ten games he has three doubles and two homers -- statistical noise or the beginning of the power growth he needs to be an elite prospect? Greg.

A draft that nets Corey Hart -- an upper-tier starter with All-Star potential and a wide variety of avenues for reaching it -- is not average; it's very successful. Greg.

Thanks, P50 poobahs! I'm as big a Brantley fan as anybody, and I certainly think OBP in the minors is a big deal. I can't really quibble too much with where he is, because there's a decent argument for everybody who's ahead of him to be ahead of him. But personally, I still think he's likely to have more value over time than Cole Gillespie. Al's right to emphasize age even more than he is to emphasize OBP. Good to see Nelson and Katin in proper perspective. Greg.

First of all, how am I supposed to ask "Native Americans" if they think, say, the name "Indians" is offensive? Do you have their address? Do they all speak with one voice? If some of them do find the name offensive (as anyone who doesn't live in a bomb shelter would know they do), am I allowed to agree with them, or do I have to keep my opinion to myself? Second, why can't I be offended by something that isn't directed at me? If somebody calls my wife a [expletive deleted], do you mind if I object? How about my daughter? If I get to object in those cases, might I not reasonably take the next step and extend my objection to the use of that term against women in general, none of whom I consider any more deserving of generic abuse than my wife or daughter? Third, and most basic, who the hell are you to tell me what to think? You call me a "crusader" because I occasionally care about something other than my own self-interest? Well, I've got some labels for you too, but I'll keep them to myself because -- without asking -- I think they might offend you. Greg. (edit: language --1992)

Brantley goes long! And the crowd goes wild! So everybody else in Alabama went long too -- so what? There's hope! Hell of a nice day for a few guys I'm not that high on -- Brae Wright, Tony Gwynn, and Laynce Nix. With Lucroy and Salome continuing to elevate their games, I'm actually not worried about catching, for the first time I can remember. I'm not saying either one is a lock, and for sure we could use more, but the position no longer seems like the gaping chest wound it's been since back when Dave Nilsson was mobile. If Mat Gamel is really making strides defensively, I'm getting in line to apologize for dissing all those Bill Hall trade proposals. Greg.

Well, the slant-eyed logo thing might be construed as just a little bit of a stereotype. Estrogen in the drinking water . . . right, because real men rip on each other's ethnicity. Yeah, back in the days when people sold bug-eyed, fat-lipped sambo dolls, even the women had hair on their chests; now we're all just a bunch of sniveling pansies. If we weren't, I wouldn't have to say "women" or "pansies." (I don't know how to do blue text in quick reply.) The shirt vendors are ignorant at best, vile at worst. The team officials quoted in the story are acting like morons. This isn't a trademark issue; parody is protected under the First Amendment. No sentient human would confuse the shirt with the team logo. They're trying to ban offensive speech, and that's both stupid and legally out of bounds. Greg.

Green seems to be one of those players who answers questions. He's always doing something useful (like getting on base, or playing a good 2B), and then when you notice a deficiency (like power, or the fact that you don't need him at 2B), he seems to fill it in. Given his modest physical/tools profile, he seems like -- I kind of hate to say this, but sometimes it's important -- a battler. Obviously that means jack without talent, but he obviously has talent to draw on. Maybe he'll hit a ceiling and top out as a AAAA player, but I'm thinking he won't fail for lack of effort. Greg.

Wow -- LaVel Freeman and Steve Stanicek. I remember following those guys and thinking how much they would help the Brewers. Thanks for the blast from the past, LouisEly. Good reminder that things could be worse, and have been. As one who has pimped both Brent Brewer and Brad Nelson over the past couple of years, I have mixed emotions. Bumping Brewer up to Brevard . . . wow. The organization must have great faith in his underlying skills, because he has seriously been stinking up the joint. What Nelson is doing this year was entirely predictable, if you believed that (a) he really was a major hitting prospect before he got hurt, and (b) the injury was the sort that would mess up his power stroke, and accordingly his whole game, for several years. He regained his footing last year, and he's moving forward this year. The part I didn't predict was that his plate discipline would mature as if he had been on track all along. He's going to help this team as a lefthanded 4C reserve, next April at the latest, and now I'm not so sure that he couldn't start for a while, somewhere else or in Milwaukee as an injury replacement. Greg.

All four of his homers, and three of his 12 doubles, have come in his past eight games. Greg.

What's weirder about the Nashville game -- that Nix walked twice, or that Nelson tripled and stole two bases? Huntsville is romping with Gamel, LaPorta, and Brantley 2 for 12. Man, that team is stacked. Greg.

Am I hallucinating (always a possibility), or do I remember reading this same article some time ago? Greg.

I would love to know if anyone else in professional baseball history has ever stolen five bases on just one official reach. Greg.

So now it's "bias" to argue that Brad Nelson would be a better DH option than Gwynn? As of this moment, in just under 250 MLB PAs, Gwynn has hit .269/.319/.324. Nelson, when healthy, has substantially outhit Gwynn at every minor league stop, and at this point he has had quite a lot of AAA experience. There's a reasonable argument that Gwynn has value as a defensive sub / pinch-runner, but he has established no value as a hitter. It's hard to believe Nelson could possibly be worse, and based on how he's hitting this year (albeit in a small sample), he could conceivably be pretty good. He's 25, young enough that he might actually help in a bench role going forward. I'd like to see him get a shot -- and I certainly don't think the Red Sox have some invincibility mojo that precludes his getting that shot against them. Greg.

Wow -- that Braddock line looks like a misprint. 10/1 K/BB in 4 shutout innings? Way to announce your return! Nice effort for Mike Jones, too. Hope springs eternal. Greg.

At the end of last year, I expressed a theory about Nelson -- not rocket science, by any means -- that he had just taken a lot of time to come back from the wrist, and that last year was his return to being something like the hitter who had gotten us excited. My suggestion then was that he might build on last year's gains and come back very strong this year. So I'm very inclined to keep a close eye on him. This performance spike may just herald the return of the prodigal (injured) prospect. Of course, it may not; it could just be a hot month that he'll follow up with crap, or it could be that he just has the PCL pitchers' numbers after hanging out there for so long. Still, he's only 25; we all thought he had impact talent at 21; and right now he's doing what prospects do. He played a little 3B at the end of last year, making him a potential "4C" utility guy, and he hits from the left side. He has begun to make his case as a player who could help. Greg.

Man, until I happened to glance at those standings, I had no idea Nashville was that bad. They're our least interesting affiliate right now prospect-wise, and focusing on prospects definitely diminishes attention to a team's W/L, so I wasn't paying attention at all -- but 4-15 is horrifying. Of course, they have had to play 12 of 19 on the road, so really they're probably closer to a 6-13 team. Plus, just looking at the teams in our affiliates' divisions, Nashville has St. Lucie safely in its rearview mirror. Greg.

My attitude about Brantley right now is, so far, so good. He's still 20, he's in AA, he's an OBP machine, he plays most of his games in CF, and he steals some bases. He definitely needs to develop power if he's going to start in the bigs, but he still has plenty of time to do that. The things he already does well will keep him in the mix while we see whether the power comes. As things stand, I'm having a harder and harder time seeing how Brantley's future doesn't project better than Tony Gwynn's -- not to pick on Gwynn gratuitously, but they have similar skill sets. Greg.

Really encouraging to see those games from Cain and Fermaint at Brevard and Brewer and Gindl at WV. Brewer scored five runs . . . anyone know the last time a Brewers farmhand did that? Periard seems to have a lot of games like this -- decent results but lousy peripherals. I seem to recall that people have offered the "pitching to contact" explanation for his lack of Ks, but then he goes out and walks guys. Is this just noise, or could he perhaps be showing real limitations? Man, Rivas just took that game right away from Bryson. Greg.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but today really blew. Greg.

Man, the West Virginia bats are cold. It's early, but sheesh. Is that the best game Mercedes has ever pitched? Pitching into the 6th, let alone pitching fairly well, has to be some kind of moral victory. Greg.

Ok, so now Gwynn has to post a .400 OBP in order to be a viable big league player? I can't disagree with that anymore. I think at .360 with his defense, and his speed, he could be a very solid player. A line of .300/.360/.400 would be just fine given the fact that he'll likely play a very, very good defensive CF. Second, I don't agree in the least bit that pitchers won't walk you if you don't have power. That's essentially saying that walks are all about the pitcher when in fact walks are as much about the hitter as they are about the pitcher. So I think there's a fundamental problem suggesting that he can't have a high OBP if he doesn't have good power. There's no reason that Tony Gwynn Jr can't become a Chone Figgins type player. Hit for a high average, walk a bit, steal some bases, and play a very good CF. This is a fair response, but I think it ends up reinforcing my point. First of all, I absolutely agree with you that walks depend a lot on a hitter's ability to create them. No question. But a hitter can only create walks once he has a certain level of hitting ability. The same thing is true for hits. We take for granted that hitters have a lot to do with whether they get hits or make outs. But if you or I went up against Ben Sheets, we would make outs almost all the time, and we wouldn't have any ability to control that. Before anybody pounces, I'm not saying Tony Gwynn is as bad a hitter as I am, but I am saying that he isn't a good enough hitter to induce walks. To put it another way, some good hitters have the additional talent of inducing walks, and some don't; but very few truly punchless hitters at the MLB level can induce walks. Am I forgetting somebody who has put up a plus OBP with as little power as Gwynn has? Your Chone Figgins comparison shows exactly what I'm talking about. Going into this year, as luck would have it, Chone Figgins had a career SLG of exactly .400. His career OBP was .354. Only once has he put up an OBP over .352 -- last year, .393 -- and he did that alongside a career high SLG of .419. His best year for leveraging a relatively high OBP with a relatively low SLG was 2005, when he put up a .352 OBP with a .397 SLG. Figgins' career OPS really isn't great, and last year IMHO is the only season where his OPS alone qualified him as a good player. I think he has been somewhat overrated, but there's a strong argument that, if you consider his stolen base success and his ability to play 3b and cf well, he has been very valuable. Gwynn doesn't bring Figgins' versatility to the table, and he hasn't yet shown the ability to steal a lot of bases at a high success rate; but he is a strong defender with good speed. So far he doesn't do anything better than Figgins. So, barring some other unexpected development, I don't see how Gwynn has any hope of being nearly as useful as Figgins unless Gwynn puts up at least a .400 SLG. Greg.