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gregmag

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Everything posted by gregmag

  1. gregmag
    X, I'm really curious where you're getting this. Every mock I can recall seeing had Jed Bradley gone before 15. He has a decent 4-pitch mix by MLB standards -- at 21, at the outset of his career. How does a player like that not get slot, profile not to make the majors, top out as a #4 . . . ? You guys are really smart, so I'm not asking this rhetorically, but where's the bad dirt on Bradley coming from?
  2. gregmag
    Doesn't it seem likely that his velocity was down last game because it's the end of the season and he's gassed? If I'm judging his velocity, I go by the bulk of the reports, and they seem to say he sits at 93-95 and touches 98. He doesn't walk people. I just don't get "low cieling." Jed Bradley looks like a nice grab at 15.
  3. gregmag
    This seems like the right time to start this discussion, but not to finish it. I've been a McGehee skeptic from the beginning. He absolutely deserves credit for what he has managed to do, but even at his best he hasn't been a world-beater, and his record screams "likely decline." I think giving him more time to right the ship makes sense, because he has a moderate record of success and because nobody else in the system looks like a better bet right now. Green is coming on. He's looking like the guy he was before the injury, which is a pretty useful player. I agree with the folks who have said he would benefit from some more ABs at AAA. He's going to come down from his hot streak, and I'd rather see him work through that at Nashville than here. If nothing has changed by the all-star break -- if McGehee hasn't improved on either side of the ball and if Green is still playing well -- then I think a platoon starts to make a lot of sense. This is going to be a tough pennant race, and we'll need to press every advantage we have.
  4. gregmag
    Great job as always, guys. For some reason the comments this month seem even a little more interesting than usual, which I mean as high praise. I like that, given the poor state of the system, you aren't hesitating to move guys up and down rapidly. Everybody on the list has a whole lot to prove. To throw out the first nit-pick, I think Taylor Green probably should rate higher at this point. He's 24 at AAA, which isn't too old. He's hitting well. He plays a skill position of potential need, and his second position is up the defensive spectrum, not down. He has a history of moderate success. He seems like he has always been willing to put in the work to get the most out of his talent. Obviously he shows no signs of being a world-beater, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him as the Brewers' starting 3b in 2012 or 2013, depending on a lot of other variables. I'd probably rate him behind Khris Davis but ahead of Schafer, Kentrail Davis, and Richardson, all outfielders who are no younger for their levels than Green and who aren't producing so far. Mike Walker also seems low to me at 40, but I understand that he jumped seven spots as it is and that we have to be careful about a 22 year-old in the Midwest League. I predict he'll be in the upper half of the P50 at season's end.
  5. gregmag
    Using OPS+ as a quick and dirty comparison on offense, and assuming his numbers this year don't tank, Braun's career so far is almost a dead match for Yount's five best seasons, if you cherry-picked them and put them together. That fact bodes pretty well for Braun's chances to have a more valuable offensive career than Yount. Yount's a little hard to assess, because he started at 18 and aged fairly rapidly. He was a great hitter from 1980 to 1989; for his other ten seasons he was a bit below average in the aggregate. But Braun will never touch Yount's defensive value. Molitor didn't quite match Yount's peaks, but he was a consistently productive hitter for an amazingly long time. Braun, or anybody, will have a hard time matching Molitor's longevity.
  6. gregmag
    Russ, you've said that a couple of times now, and I'm curious about what you mean. By definition, the average manager is average, relative to other managers. Do you mean that the average manager now is poor compared to some historical standard? That the average manager costs his team runs? (That one would be both difficult to quantify and a conceptual problem, given that gaining and losing runs is a zero-sum game.) That the average manager doesn't stack up well against people who make similar kinds of decisions in other fields? Certainly I have no interest in defending the honor of major league managers; I'm just interested in knowing more about what you mean.
  7. gregmag
    I took "entitled to a desire" to mean that it's reasonable for fans to expect that the team will maximize its talent. That may be a slightly roundabout way of putting the point, but I don't see how it's a controversial point. It just means that, in conversation, a fan should be able to say "I'm bent out of shape that the team isn't maximizing its talent" without expecting to be condemned for somehow going out of bounds. If the statement had been something like "fans are entitled to a good team," or a good effort, or x number of wins, then I would at least understand your objection -- although if you really wanted to extend that objection into a generalized critique of American society, you'd have to be a lot more detailed and precise (which, in fairness, would probably get you into territory that Brewerfan users aren't entitled to enter).
  8. gregmag
    Let us revel in good news from the top of the organization to the bottom. Komatsu has been so good that we aren't even talking about him much, but what a game; Braddock, Thornburg, Scarpetta, Roberts, Khris Davis, Green, Burgos was okay, and you pile all this on top of shutting out the world champs after splitting two nail-biters to cap a monster homestand . . . I haven't been this happy about baseball all year.
  9. gregmag
    I'm about as optimistic about RR as I could reasonably expect to be. I largely agree with TheCrew07, in that I suspect a manager is most important in how he handles and relates to players -- unless he's making obvious bonehead moves like killing his pitchers or sac bunting early in the game, which I don't see RR doing. RR seems to relate well to his players, especially the young guys. Of course, that stuff is impossible to measure and difficult to assess, which is why judging managers is so difficult. RR is a rookie manager who's getting to know his players, and he acts like it. If he's still batting Gomez second in two months I'll be mystified, but in fairness, Hart was hurt for a while, Morgan was hurt, and it isn't like the roster is crawling with high OBP guys. RR has given Gomez a more-than-fair shot, and Gomez has presumably played himself into a platoon. I would have been less merciful if I had a fantasy team, but I can't really fault RR for handling flesh-and-blood players that way. Besides, everybody seems to need to see Gomez stink live before they'll believe he's that bad. RR also seems to be running primarily with players who actually can run (Gomez, Braun, Weeks), which I'm glad to see given his rep as a speed-at-all-costs guy. For whatever it may be worth, I also like how he seems to have his own mind. I'm thinking of how he said last week that he'd rather have a good righty than a mediocre lefty in the pen and that he doesn't really put much stock in "how we have to do over the next [x] games." He seems . . . not stupid, for sure, and not excessively steeped in managerial cliches.
  10. gregmag
    I like "multi-dimensional" -- that seems spot-on to me. People are very complicated.
  11. gregmag
    DHonks, I'm not sure why you're bashing the previous post so hard, given that you seem to be saying the same thing. Interestobserver made the point that MLB could not unilaterally impose a slotting system but that the union was free to bargain for other concessions in exchange for submitting to such a system. Isn't that the gist of your point about collective bargaining as well?
  12. gregmag
    If Braun's improvement in plate discipline so far this year holds up, then I think the argument shifts in a big way. Obviously it's a small sample, although Braun's comments suggest it reflects a change in approach. Russ is right about the value of Fielder's walks, but if Braun can cut into that as he has in the early part of this season, his ability to hit for a higher average gives him a real chance to be better than Fielder this year.
  13. gregmag
    I've been to a few Cardinals games now, in Brewers gear almost every time. The fans have never been anything but friendly, and nobody behaves in the jerkish way that I used to see all the time in Boston, Philly, and New York. Having lived here for a few years, St. Louis reminds me more of Milwaukee than anyplace I've ever lived, which is a big reason why I like living here so much. I think LaRussa and some of the announcers / reporters here (who really are quite bad) deserve most of the blame for the "classy" nonsense. But for Milwaukee fans to rip on St. Louis fans wholesale seems to me like spitting at the mirror.
  14. gregmag
    No one who falls off at 32 or 33 profiles that way, but pre-PED it happened all the time.I disagree. Players with "old player skills" -- low BA, no speed, power, walks, poor defense or easier defensive position -- profile as types who will fall off in their early 30s. So do players with generally narrow skill sets who depend a lot on speed and quickness. So do players who are chronically injury prone. So do guys who, in their primes, are just good enough to play. These are generalizations, of course, but over time they're useful generalizations. Braun has a broad skill set, with a high BA and decent speed in addition to power and (now, apparently) patience. He's a great athlete, and he hasn't been hurt a lot. He's a much better bet to hold his value into his mid-30s than, to take a few easy examples, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, or Casey McGehee.
  15. gregmag
    IMHO, this couldn't be more on the money if it was green ink. It captures a lot of what always has been and remains wrong with Peter Gammons -- despite his considerable knowledge and savvy -- and it nails the biggest problem with MLB. Baseball, to me, is the most entertaining, fascinating team sport in the world. Why can't we have a pro league that favors parity for the sake of maximum competition? Why does MLB have to be just another place where the rich get richer?
  16. gregmag
    I'm a big fan of this deal. I'm as fixated on age/decline as anybody, but Ryan Braun doesn't profile as a guy who will fall off at 32 or 33. Everyone's comments about inflation and interest are also very important. But here's another thing -- Braun honestly strikes me as the one guy we've had in my memory who has a chance to be the best hitter in baseball. I'm not saying he is, and I'm not saying he will be. But his ceiling, at age 27, remains exciting. Who else have we had who establishes himself as a .310 BA, 30 HR type player, and then -- then -- learns to draw walks? I think this deal is much more likely to be a bargain than an albatross.
  17. gregmag
    Love the logic here. Dickerson is overrated -- which you just keep on repeating, post after redundant post, without ever considering the facts -- and yet somehow he was good enough to net someone you consider a "nice pickup." I wish I knew how to be right about things as often as you think you are.
  18. gregmag
    Quote of the week.
  19. gregmag
    A quintessential AAAA baller? Dickerson has 527 MLB PA, almost a season's worth. He has hit .267/.356/.403, with 20 steals in 26 attempts. He has, by far, the best MLB resume of any centerfielder in the Brewers' camp. Those are not remotely "AAAA" numbers -- for a CF, they're borderline starter numbers. CFs who put up about a .759 OPS last year include Austin Jackson (.745), Angel Pagan (.765), Adam Jones (.767), Shane Victorino (.756), B.J. Upton (.745), and Matt Kemp (.760). Now, there are decent reasons to question whether Dickerson would cut it as a starter. Having the best MLB resume of any centerfielder in the Brewers' camp ain't much to brag about. He hasn't ever proved himself as an everyday player, and he seems to get hurt enough to raise flags, if not alarms. But to suggest that he should be cut because of 61 injury-rusted PA as a Brewer and some spring training games strikes me as very short-sighted. If Gomez turns a corner, a healthy Dickerson profiles as an excellent 4th OF. If, as I think is more likely, Gomez keeps being what he's been, Dickerson is a decent insurance policy. Either way, there's no way the Brewers can afford to dump him with the players they have on hand.
  20. gregmag
    On the shortstop point, I would add that Cruz is easily replaceable. If Betancourt stinks and somebody rips up the picture in Counsell's attic -- either or both of which could easily happen -- that would definitely be bad. I just don't see how having Cruz around would make the situation any better. He's who you call when you just need a warm body to fill the position, and there are a bunch of guys like him hanging around AAA at any given time.
  21. gregmag
    Whatever the results, I think Gomez deserves credit for going about his work in a constructive way. He has taken some justifiable heat in the past for his attitude. Now he's talking about working to get better and trying to be the player he should be. I don't think you can fake that kind of humility; he's still a young man, and he seems to be growing up more. Maybe he has the full mix of talents to be a productive player, maybe not, but good for him. As for the bunting, of course he should be laying down a few bunts in spring training. It's time to work on things. I am no fan of bunting generally, but it's the right thing to do in some situations, and it's a better percentage play for somebody with Gomez's speed. He needs to know how to bunt well, and the only way to stop popping up bunts is to integrate bunting into his efforts to change his offensive approach.
  22. gregmag
    Whatever the facts, good for the U. of Tennessee. Legal process is important, but schools and teams should be aggressive about domestic abuse allegations. I hope the young woman is okay, and -- well, I hope Brent didn't do it, but assuming he did, I hope he gets some consequences and then gets help.
  23. gregmag
    I feel really old. I remember when he was just a kid, starting out. Seemed like a decent enough kid at heart back then. I wish somebody had taught him how to be a professional.
  24. gregmag
    I'm going to provide my ritual defense of Cards fans here. They really are friendly, engaged, and knowledgeable. I'm sure they say stupid things on sports talk radio, but everybody does; it's one of the reasons I never listen to sports talk radio anywhere. The St. Louis media types seem pretty thick and entitled, LaRussa's a world-class tool, and I'm no big fan of Albert personally, but I lived in Philly for almost a decade, and these are some great fans in St. Louis. Of course they love Albert -- what, you wouldn't love him if he played for the Brewers? St. Louis reminds me more than any other place I've lived of Milwaukee. People here are pretty down to earth, and they work hard. I'll be bummed for them when they lose their star player to New York or Chicago, just like I was bummed for us when we lost Molitor.
  25. gregmag
    Great news. This is a highly rational deal -- I can't imagine how the years, dollars, and conditions could make a lot more sense. Congratulations to Rickie Weeks and the Brewers.
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