Fear The Chorizo
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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo
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A fully firing Winker from 3 or so seasons ago is an upgrade to what Hiura provided at the MLB level in 2022, but a chronically injured and diminished Winker is most certainly not...which is what it appears the Brewers currently have on the MLB roster. Winker's current "hot" streak is frankly still not good enough to guarantee him a longer leash as this team's primary DH. And it makes no sense to include Hiura as a 1B option just because he played there a few seasons ago while his own offensive production suffered (and played it poorly, btw) - he's been in AAA playing LF, so Hiura should either be a DH or spot start corner outfielder if he's in MLB. Tellez has stunk up the joint most of this season and the Brewers are getting laughable production from 1B because of it, but that shouldn't mean square-pegging Hiura back at that position on what would AGAIN become a part time role for him. To improve 1st base offensive production this season, the Brewers need to acquire a better offensive 1B than Tellez. To improve DH production this season, the Brewers need to DFA Winker or option Miller and get Hiura back in Milwaukee ASAP so they can see if he can sustain what he's been up to in AAA when healthy this year, or otherwise they could look into the trade market at the deadline.
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- keston hiura
- jesse winker
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When the choices are to utilize the existing unemployment system to pay people forced out of work by government mandated business shutdowns, or to pay them under another government program hastily created and full of loopholes for fraud with printed money that accelerates debt spending not to replace unemployment but in addition to it, I'd imagine libertarians would be in favor of unemployment benefits, yes.
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Sorry, but I paid the last of my student loans down by early 2021, admittedly was close to the end of my repayment anyway when the government decided to let them slide interest free...I'd do that every damn time again so I didn't have the extra $150 a month bill knowing where inflation was taking prices regardless of when payments had to resume. Anyone who didn't see prices skyrocketing while the govt was printing money was kidding themselves. For the people who stopped paying and will need to resume, I'm sure it will be a jolt because everything costs more today than it did 3 years ago. Will that cripple their discretionary spending if they have a large loan balance? Yes it probably will, and frankly it should so they can get their own financial house in order. Those payments have to resume sometime. As for investing the monthly payments and then making a bulk payment when it finally does resume, in a perfect world sure, but you run the risk of losing money on the investment or having it tied up somewhere where you can't immediately take it out without taxes or other penalties. If you can eliminate a debt payment, in my book you eliminate it.
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Revisiting the Hader Trade
Fear The Chorizo replied to Samurai Bucky's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Lamet isn't a mlb pitcher anymore - he still throws hard but his numbers have proven he sucks. Getting Gasser alone and the 6 years of mlb control the Brewers will have from him whenever he is called up makes this trade a win for the Brewers. Throw in they wound up with their starting catcher for the next 5 years and a quality reliever option, and I don't see how people are still upset Hader was traded last year when he was in the midst of blowing up just about every appearance and his contract was only going to get pricier. -
Should have been more specific, as these sales replace a fraction of the 23M barrels of additional oil released from the SPR in early 2023 that was congressionally mandated from previous legislation, which wasn't at all part of the ~200M barrel siphoning done last year. So they'll need to buy 7 more similar volumes to the article you cited to get back to where things were end of 2022. And I'd imagine there's another mandated sale from the reserve set to happen in early 2024. If they wanted to replenish the reserve, there'd be alot more oil getting bought by the government.
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3 million barrels is nothing...and this was supposed to start happening early this year at a much higher rate but they are hesitant to put any extra strain on oil markets that would drive its price higher and cause more pain at the pump. The SPR is actually down this year compared to where it was when they stopped drawing it down late last year. It's a fine line to walk until they get another 150-200 million barrels back into the reserve hoping there isn't a significant geopolitical event or natural disaster that creates a need to rapidly draw down the reserve for daily supply needs.
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Very true...at least directly. Gas going up a quarter thins the margins for all products delivered or provided, which leads to price increases in other ways though. Gas prices as a whole have been stagnant this summer...but the SPR also hasn't been replenished one bit and remains at levels not seen since the early 1980s....probably a wise thing at the moment but the govt is also wasting a golden opportunity to replenish when prices are reasonably low due to diminished global oil demand because of floundering economic growth.
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But it also shouldn't be substantial in terms of macroeconomics for a nation of ~350 million people, many of which already paid their loans back or never went to a college to take on that debt. The fact that now 40 million people will have to resume paying a couple hundred bucks a month (on average, of course) to pay back a loan they voluntarily agreed to instead of making an extra run to a big box store or night out to dinner could significantly alter economic growth is a problem...not one that the stock market really cares about (at least until it realizes the ramifications of consumer spending being that stressed), but that's the reason I view the current economic climate as precarious at best.
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The fact that borrowers with current student loan balances, a relatively small percentage of the overall American population, simply have to resume repaying loans they've had over 3 years of a grace period to make payments on (when they could've actually paid them off during this period anyways), is likely to have any sort of impact on economic growth/consumer spending should tell you how precarious things are.
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Assuming the labor participation rate remains stagnant at a level well below where it was before the pandemic, if the unemployment rate of people actively trying to work crawls back up over 5% it's going to happen well after you'd probably start listening to the Bears you know.
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When this all finally goes south, and it will, it's going to go south painfully fast. A recession hasn't yet techincally happened, but neither has substantial growth/expansion - to me it feels like treading water out in the middle of an ocean with a chunk of floating debris propping you up...ok for now to survive, but you're still in the middle of an ocean full of sharks with very limited options on how to improve your situation. Bank balance sheets are still in very rough shape from decisions made several years ago when the cost of debt was basically nil - now the current interest rate outlook makes it all but impossible to clean up. The last bad recession driven by normal economic ebbs and flows was caused by the housing market bubble, this one will be caused by commercial real estate and the current bloated personal credit card debt bubble - at some point all the levers currently propping up a sputtering economy in the face of rising interest rates and persistent inflation are going to give, and there isn't much of anything left to soften the blow.
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Reds' recent hot streak and debate about when devil magic kicks in for the Cardinals have both overshadowed the Cubs, who have been playing much better of late and are the lone team in the NL Central sporting a positive run differential. That's a team with decent enough pitching to go on a sustained tear with better offense, and they could also be looking to add pitching and hitting at this year's deadline to separate themselves a bit from the rest of a seemingly muddled pack. For all the love the Reds are getting with their hot streak, it still has barely gotten them over 0.500 and their pitching has allowed 20 MORE runs than the Cardinals. There are still plenty of holes on Cincy's roster to expect an extended bad stretch for them as randomly as this 10 game win streak showed up. The Pirates appear to be going off the rails as fast as the Reds have gotten hot, and the Brewers seemingly are treading water as other NL Central teams take turns jumping over and then plummeting back under them in the standings.
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Well, Davante found out pretty quickly he made the wrong choice and would've been much better off (and wealthier) had he signed that Packer contract offer. Heck, he may be getting traded again after 1 year in Vegas. I think much of this is hindsight explanation/reasoning for him opting to move on and the Packers actually trading him at peak value before it was obvious they were going to have a tagged WR who wasn't going to play for them anymore. From the Packers' perspective, at least in longterm cap health, they have to be breathing a sigh of relief it played out like it did. If the Packers truly knew and believed Adams wasn't coming back under any circumstances very early in the offseason, it would've been all over the league. Oftentimes, more lucrative contract offers wind up changing minds - in this instance that wasn't the case.
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Baltimore actually is a pretty dinky baseball market, very similar to the Brewers, actually. They are right on top of Washington DC (Nats) and 40 miles away from Philly The Orioles got awful by trying to be more like the Red Sox and Yankees financially when they couldn't, and now are starting to see reward of sticking with an extended rebuild that saw some painful MLB cellar seasons like what the Astros did ~15 yrs ago.
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The Brewers can't hit but the Cardinals can't pitch or play defense - and that's why the dirty birds are in the cellar of a weak division. And unless they dramatically get their pitching fixed, there's no extended hot streak for that team back up the standings - this isn't beer league softball where they can expect to win 15 out of every 20 games 10-8 for a few months. I've posted it in other threads - I absolutely despise Yadi Molina, but it's obvious to me how much he helped their pitching overperform their ability over the years. Not saying his absence behind the dish is the only reason their pitching sucks (many of their key arms are just not good enough anymore due to age/injuries), but it definitely is a big reason.
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I'm getting an impression that this year's trade deadline is going to be a dud for teams hoping to sell high end talent with the expectation of getting huge prospect value back in return. Too many of the huge market clubs currently scuffling along just aren't going to sell impact players, and they also are so heavily invested into veteran players across most of their roster that there's no point of them to get aggressive and become buyers, either - I'm guessing they'll largely just play out the string with what they have in hopes they get healthy/hot and find a way to eek into a wide open playoff field. Additionally, mid to small market teams currently at the top of many of the divisions/in the playoff picture aren't going to want to trade bluechip prospects for middling veteran talent that may or may not make their team better - I can see a bunch of bullpen pieces being traded for lottery tickets or so-so blocked prospects from one team to another, but not much more. Maybe the Rangers make a splashy trade for more pitching now that DeGrom's done for the year - and I can see them wanting Bieber if Cleveland opts to sell. Because of this, and because the NL Central is incredibly winnable for this Brewers team even with no significant roster upgrades, I think Burnes gets dealt this offseason and they ride as far as he and Woody can take them this year in the postseason. Maybe the Pads fall on their face even further and try to restock their system with a Soto trade, too.
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This team, put simply, sucks against LHP - doesn't matter the quality of LHP, they just can't hit it well enough to win games. It's been their biggest flaw for multiple seasons and they can't seem to figure out how to fix it.
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- julio teheran
- hoby milner
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Would you agree that most of the statistical value you presented in the above is heavily weighted towards his 2021 season, when he was making a legitimate case for Cy Young consideration through most of the year until a shoulder injury limited him down the stretch? I'd also be curious to know where Peralta's 282 IP total from 2021-2023 seasons rank in that list of 104 pitchers. Don't get me wrong - that contract does carry value and the Brewers got the financial equivalent of equal to excess value just by Peralta's 2021 season alone up to this point...but at the rate he's performing I'd say it's a coin flip for the Brewers to want to execute either of Freddy's 2025 or 2026 team options that carry an annual $8M pricetag - he's got to stay healthy AND be a better pitcher when healthy than he's been since the calendar rolled into 2022 to justify that future cost.
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He's been a below replacement level starter so far this season, and the Brewers have control of him for 3 more seasons. There's nothing indicating he's a really good trade asset besides Brewers' homer sunglasses and an affordable contract to give him a long leash to reestablish himself as a reliable and quality starting pitcher - honestly Peralta's collective body of work and injury history to this point actually makes the initial extension he signed look like a good move for him and a financially foolish one for the Brewers despite of how team-friendly it's been perceived to be. When the most valuable aspect of a player to an organization is the contract he's signed to and his best start remains his MLB debut about 5 calendar years ago, perhaps his on-field contributions are over-valued by that team because of it.
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There is 0 chance the Brewers trade Burnes at this year's deadline if they're leading their division. If he does get back on a roll and the Brewers get Woodruff healthy and Peralta righted, that's playoff rotation no team will be eager to face. The division the Brewers play in makes them the a contending team that could use Burnes for two playoff runs if they can fit his annual arbitration contract into their budget - it would cost them more in prospects/dollars to acquire a similar pitcher to replace him, so why trade Burnes? To me, it'd be a different story if the Brewers were in the AL East or NL West. Much higher likelihood Burnes is either dealt in the coming offseason (either to a team interested in extending him or to a team wanting to "go for it" in 2024 knowing they've only got him for 1 year of control - and if they fall flat they can flip him at next year's deadline). Or the Brewers roll with Burnes into 2024 and either trade him at the deadline or get one last full season out of him before he walks in FA.
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I think his wrist/hand injuries early in his MLB career significantly impacted his ceiling at the MLB level as a hitter. I always liked him as a player for the same reasons MrTPlush indicated.
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600M in payroll between the Mets and Phils to be a collective 5 games under 0.500 just about 40% into the season...in terms of expectations, the NL East has far underperformed the NL Central.
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For all the handwringing about the Brewers' recent scufflling, the Brewers currently have (checks notes) the 4th best record in the NL. I honestly don't see too many teams in the NL being dominant enough to go on a tear and win 100+ games. They're sitting just fine at the moment, particularly with all the injuries they've already been dealing with. NL teams like the Cardinals, Padres, Phillies, Giants, and Mets are in much more trouble than the Crew. This year's deadline could be a weird one, as teams like the Mets, Phillies, and Padres who have gone all in to try and win a title may be faced with a decision on whether to try and keep buying or sell - and some teams with marginally good rosters but limited payrolls (Brewers, Marlins, Pirates) likely won't be willing to pony up a king's ransom in prospects if they become buyers. If the Padres don't figure things out I don't see how Preller lasts the year as GM.
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Adding to this - the area of the dugout rail where Adames (and other players/coaches congregate) when watching the game is pretty much the same distance from home plate as the pitchers mound is, maybe 5 feet further back. Pitchers get smoked on comebackers and hitters get drilled by pitches they don't have time to react to when they're actually on the field during game action. Just not a smart idea to drape yourself over the railing there, let alone do so while a pitch is happening and not be paying attention to it. Not singling Adames out, as many players/coaches do the same thing.
