Fear The Chorizo

Gasser was drafted in 2021, Kelly in 2019. Gasser has improved his stuff and has remained healthy to date, always shown polish and the only question on him provided he stays healthy is if he profiles as a mid or back of the rotation starter. Kelly had a significant shoulder surgery and hasn't developed nearly enough to be considered a starting pitcher prospect anymore - his path to MLB is in the pen and his questionable command in high A shows he still has a long ways to go to get there. Gasser is older by ~1 year, but from a development standpoint he is much more advanced as a pitcher and a prospect than Kelly. When you look at the pitching prospects Stearns has shipped out via trade over the past few years, which one stands out as a guy he really messed up trading thus far?

This partly feels like a long time coming in terms of weird roster reshuffling and questionable moves made by the FO in the last calendar year without giving some internal guys enough room to earn longterm roster spots. I think something fell through at the deadline that Stearns and company were hoping to work out in terms of a trade for another bat - perhaps Bell or a different bat that would've included Lamet and/or one of their 3 catchers. Severino gets sent packing because he can't play this postseason due to the drug suspension. To me Lamet always did look like a throw in for this trade that likely evened out $$ in order for the Padres to include both prospects they did. Since Rogers' salary was almost fully paid by the Twins, they had to purge some of their MLB payroll to stay under the luxury tax. Hiura has only been shuttled between AAA and MLB because the Brewers threw a contract at McCutcheon to be their quasi DH and Hiura had an option remaining. He strikes out a ton but he also makes peanuts and is one of their most productive hitters against RHP. He's been raking so it'll be interesting to see if he get consistent AB or just gets stuck at the bottom of the Brewers' bench once again. Based on what is coming up through their farm system, I kind of expect the Brewers to have alot of position player trade activity happening this offseason from their existing MLB roster in order to open up spots for some of their prospects and lower payroll in order to afford arby raises to Burnes/Woodruff.

I think the offense is assumed to be bad because the Brewers just don't currently have a silver slugger or two in their lineup. They have a top 10 team OPS/SLG/OBP and are middle of the pack with batting average, They don't generate a ton of hits, and when they do the hits are skewed more between HRs and singles - for a team with a top 10 slugging percentage they don't hit many doubles that often create scoring opportunities, stress defenses by limiting shifting, and/or clear the basepaths and score runs themselves. The concern for me is that this good, not great, offense relative to the rest of MLB doesn't have any carry-the-team bats, and is once again going to struggle to score runs against quality pitching in the postseason. Essentially the same song and dance as last year. So I get the front office's stance indicating there just wasn't that guy available at the deadline this year - exception being Soto, who they probably viewed as not being worth trying to empty the farm to acquire....I for one at least hope they tried and had a significant offer on the table even if the Nats valued the prospect haul the Padres offered more.

Hader never developed secondary pitches and command enough to be considered a quality MLB starting pitcher. He's able to get by with a dominant, exploding fastball and average slider for 1-2 innings, and even before he was a closer only for multi-inning relieve appearances. His changeup never developed and as a lefty, he never had good enough breaking stuff to get through a lineup 3x consistently. And Hader is 6'3", not a 6'10" freak like the Big Unit who had even harder-to-hit angles with his stuff. He is a great, fantastic, generational reliever - and IMO that is much more valuable than what most 5 IP starters are across baseball because they've become almost interchangeable parts.

If the trade of Hader was strictly in a firesale, maximize prospect value in return sort of mode, then yes I think the Brewers could have gotten a premier top-25 or so prospect plus a lottery ticket or two from a team. Getting 3 players back who can all be expected to contribute at the MLB level this season in Rogers, Ruiz, and Lamet plus a quality LHP prospect that is now in AA about 1 season from being drafted is still a ton of value.

pot meet kettle... whom three other clubs SD, TOR and TB decided wasn't a good enough human to play for them. I see you left out TX, the club Bush has pitched for the past 5ish seasons without issue after making changes to his life that have by all accounts made a significant difference. Losing Kelly hurts, but as others have mentioned his presence on the 40 man roster was going to be troublesome after this season with the amount of depth the Brewers now have working its way through the minors ahead of him that aren't yet included on it. He's got talent but also still needs a lot of development time to become an effective pitcher at the MLB level, and carries more injury risk than most pitchers due to that shoulder surgery. This type of move is more like dealing Luis Ortiz to Baltimore or Medeiros to the White Sox - talented arms that weren't fully developed but were about to run into Rule 5/40 man roster crunch issues if they remained in the Brewer organization. Ortiz is now toiling away in AAA for the Giants as a reliever and Medeiros is currently a minor league free agent after the Angels released him from their AAA squad.

Everything in Bush's very checkered legal history, and I mean everything, points to his issue and disease with alcoholism that was likely inflated greatly by the fact he got thrown a pile of cash as a kid because he was talented at baseball. Reading everything about Bush since he did time, he doesn't ask for pity or for people to feel sorry for him. If he hasn't actually been sober for years, he never plays baseball again and very likely isn't alive anymore. You are doing plenty of ostracizing, so don't act like Bush doesn't have to deal with his history every day, both internally and given the fact his job forces him into the public spotlight whether he wants to or not - somewhere addicts typically view as the last place they want to be.

Or it may be that they can package Rogers, Lamet, and two pretty darn good prospects for 1.5 seasons of Hader.

He's the one furthest from contributing to MLB, and likely has the most future value of all of the players involved when you factor in escalating contract costs - there's alot of upside with a pitcher who throws strikes with improving stuff only 1 year into his pro career.

They traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Gleyber Torres....so yeah they would

aside from the fact the Brewers had Hader through his prime over 5 MLB seasons, you're right. The Brewers were fortunate to have a dominant and reliably healthy late inning reliever at his best while he was cheap - moving on from him now instead of paying him $20M a season into the timeframe when he's likely going to get injured and definitely will see his effectiveness decrease is a smart baseball move, for both small and large market teams.

So this means the Astros won the Gomez trade now, right?

Gasser sounds like Eric Lauer 2.0 - getting a lefty arm prospect who profiles as a starting pitcher with 6 full years of service time is pretty good value to start with. Rodgers gives them back end depth whether he slides back in as closer or becomes a set-up guy for Williams. Lamet has arm talent but I believe has also dealt with alot of injuries and inconsistency, and Ruiz is the wildcard. Overall I think it's a decent return for a great reliever whose time was coming to an end as a Brewer one way or another before 2024. I've long thought the Brewers would opt to make this sort of deal during next year's trade deadline, or just simply let Hader walk...his recent struggles aside, it's been a great ride watching him dominate as a Brewer.

Should've been much more willing to bet way, way more....because that's exactly where we're at.

1) In rural areas aren't gas stations fewer and further between? Don't people have to go out of their way to get gas? Wouldn't it be much more convenient to have your own "gas station" at home instead of driving "into town" to get gas? I take it you've never actually lived in a rural area - if you did you'd understand that people have to go out of their way to get just about anything, and they tend to plan errand trips into town to take care of multiple tasks to be as efficient as possible....including filling up the tank on the way home. People don't just mindlessly drive 30 miles into town to get gas and drive home for no reason, so it really isn't "out of their way" at all.

How familiar are you with the solar panel and battery manufacturing processes, from the point of pulling raw materials out of the ground, to manufacturing these components, to the issues with manufacturing waste biproducts and end of use waste from the spent components themselves? Scaling those processes anywhere close to what it would take worldwide and expand solar and EVs to the point you're proposing would be devastating to the environment - particularly in developing countries and places where the vast majority of these materials are mined and manufactured without anywhere near the environmentally-protective regulatory controls the US has at present. Maybe if we add a wind turbine to the top of the car it'll make it drive forever, too...

Yeah I get the thought that a big market team might feel like they can try to ink Soto to a longterm extension before he hits free agency....but as long as Boras is Soto's agent it isn't based in reality. I can't think of any marquee client Boras has had who actually signed a longterm extension before reaching free agency. Probably missing one somewhere, but to me having 2.5 years to sign Soto to a 15 year extension shouldn't have any bearing on what his trade value is - for any MLB team trying to trade for him. And I'd argue not being able to afford a 15 year extension for Soto is an advantage, not disadvantage for the Brewers as an organization. In fact, if the Brewers do the impossible and acquire Soto via trade, the first thing they should state in their presser is it'll be great to get 2.5 years of service from Soto before he breaks the bank in free agency - just so we don't have to hear from Boras coming up with outrageous player values for his client the whole time he's a Brewer.

Yeah I get the thought that a big market team might feel like they can try to ink Soto to a longterm extension before he hits free agency....but as long as Boras is Soto's agent it isn't based in reality. I can't think of any marquee client Boras has had who actually signed a longterm extension before reaching free agency. Probably missing one somewhere, but to me having 2.5 years to sign Soto to a 15 year extension shouldn't have any bearing on what his trade value is - for any MLB team trying to trade for him. And I'd argue not being able to afford a 15 year extension for Soto is an advantage, not disadvantage for the Brewers as an organization. In fact, if the Brewers do the impossible and acquire Soto via trade, the first thing they should state in their presser is it'll be great to get 2.5 years of service from Soto before he breaks the bank in free agency - just so we don't have to hear from Boras coming up with outrageous player values for his client the whole time he's a Brewer.

I don't know if it's that far-fetched - I don't think it matters where he gets traded, there won't be a longterm extension signed by Soto/Boras with that team. If a huge market team winds up trading for Soto, they surely could resign him as a free agent - but that would be because they have more $ to throw at him when he does become a free agent. Soto won't be a free agent until after 2024, so a trade would be for ~2.5 years of team control before he leaves via free agency. I don't consider 2.5 years of a great player's prime to be a rental, either - it's actually a smart baseball move for a small market team (had they done the same with Yelich and not extended him they could've let him be a free agent last offseason after 4 seasons with the team). They have Chourio - who is legitimately great right now - but the Nationals are likely looking for either young MLB talent or near-MLB talent... Soto was the youngest player in MLB when the Nats called him up - just because Chourio is still a baby doesn't make him young/near-MLB talent in the eyes of MLB execs. It would still take a haul to trade for him, but I think the Brewers could put enough pieces together to swing a trade that also doesn't cripple the talent emerging in their farm system - I doubt the Brewers could put together the best package unless they include Chourio in the package, which would give me pause....but 2.5 years for one of the best players in MLB is going to require a haul.

I don't know if it's that far-fetched - I don't think it matters where he gets traded, there won't be a longterm extension signed by Soto/Boras with that team. If a huge market team winds up trading for Soto, they surely could resign him as a free agent - but that would be because they have more $ to throw at him when he does become a free agent. Soto won't be a free agent until after 2024, so a trade would be for ~2.5 years of team control before he leaves via free agency. I don't consider 2.5 years of a great player's prime to be a rental, either - it's actually a smart baseball move for a small market team (had they done the same with Yelich and not extended him they could've let him be a free agent last offseason after 4 seasons with the team). They have Chourio - who is legitimately great right now - but the Nationals are likely looking for either young MLB talent or near-MLB talent... Soto was the youngest player in MLB when the Nats called him up - just because Chourio is still a baby doesn't make him young/near-MLB talent in the eyes of MLB execs. It would still take a haul to trade for him, but I think the Brewers could put enough pieces together to swing a trade that also doesn't cripple the talent emerging in their farm system - I doubt the Brewers could put together the best package unless they include Chourio in the package, which would give me pause....but 2.5 years for one of the best players in MLB is going to require a haul.

Hell, gas tanks only get ~350 miles. EV's aren't far behind that. An ICE vehicle's range is entirely dependent on the size of its gas tank and not on a battery that takes much longer to recharge in order to regain its full travel range - throw a pair of jerry cans in the back of your pickup and suddenly that range doubles. Plus if you drive a car 349 miles and show up at a gas station on fumes, 5 minutes later you can completely reset its range to 350 miles after filling up. An EV simply can't and won't ever be able to offer that level of convenience no matter how many charging stations pop up - particularly in rural areas that often require vehicles with significant towing or storage capacity, or for people living in urban areas that don't have the means or real estate room to have their own secure charging station. However, that's not saying EVs aren't a good option for anybody to have. EVs can supplement the overall auto fleet in the US and serve that sought after niche as a suburban around-town errand runner for those who can afford its higher upfront cost along with having reliable and private charging capabilities. That's maybe 15% of the population in the US, but it's a far lower percentage across the rest of the world. I think EVs make up roughly 5% of the US personal vehicle fleet at present, so 15% would be tripling it existing market share in this country - and I think that's a realistic ceiling for this type of technology. EVs are simply not the answer to replacing the ICE on a worldwide scale, particularly if people are looking for ways to improve the environment. One exception is Norway (population a bit smaller than WI). To dramatically increase their country's use of EVs, Norway has taxed the crap out of any ICE cars (sales, gas, maintenance, basically everything gets taxed at very high levels) while foregoing any taxes on EV sales/maintenance/charging cost as a way to make them cost competitive and disincentivize ICE cars - at least up until recently as they've had to scrap the EV sales tax exemption because they've blown too big a hole in their fiscal budget. The primary funding mechanism that has made this even sort of a reality in Norway is, of course, the enormous amount of money they collect in royalties from oil exports - which is a huge part of their economy and the only reason they're among the wealthiest nations on a GDP per capita basis. So Norway can say they're very clean domestically in terms of vehicle emissions - but all the oil that gets pumped out of their seafloor and shipped elsewhere to be guzzled that actually funds this endeavor still winds up churning out CO2 on the same planet Norway is on.

When Tesla is pleading for people in Texas to only charge their EVs at night and not during peak demand, it's evidence that if people charge whenever they'd prefer to do on their own that the additional strain on the grid from charging EVs even at the limited % they are part of the overall auto fleet is a problem. Dramatically increasing the % of EVs on the road would only make this much worse. Part of that reason is the existing grid and power supply is strained to its limits at present, too. That's not just in the US, it's happening in many developed countries as they've become steadily more reliant on renewables instead of excess generating capacity from nuclear/fossil fuels to support antiquated peak demand estimates that growing populations are easily able to exceed. And there's still a significant limitation with EVs on how far you can actually drive them before needing to take a significant chunk of time to recharge the battery, not to mention being held hostage to traveling where charging stations are available and actually functioning properly. To me the next step would be for families/households in population centers who have multi-vehicle households to have an EV primarily for in-town local driving and keep an ICE vehicle for more flexibility with longer drives - particularly when not planning to return home to your garage charging station at night to take advantage of that coal-fired trickle charge during bedtime.

Yes, but that decline doesn't really mean much - going from 9+% in June year over year to say 7% in July year over year still means stuff costs a ton more a full year after inflation started spiking. Changes from the interest rate hikes won't be seen in inflation numbers for another few months, at which time the rest of the economy will be firmly entrenched in a progressively worse recession (we're already in a recession that will get worse). The big rate hikes coming now are kind of like a fire department showing up to a kitchen fire and then proceeding to wait until the entire house is a raging inferno before starting to run the hose to the nearest hydrant, then proceed to extinguish the fire on a destroyed house and not turn the water off until they've flooded the rest of the homes in the neighborhood. There should never have been a 2021 round of COVID stimulus printed out (frankly there probably shouldn't have been any in 2020 either but gov't policy panicked). And as soon as that bill was passed the Fed should have started significant rate hikes a full year ago to offset what they knew was coming. Gas/fuel prices are the biggest inflation driver, since everything sold in a store at one point or another got there after being transported by something running on fuel. Gas prices will drop a bit due to reducing demand as summer moves to fall (prices always go down during this stretch), but now the problem is the US needs to stop drawing from its strategic reserves and actually try to replenish them when the cost of oil is near a record high. That will curtail supply and prevent gas prices from dropping faster than they otherwise would have - so we'll get a fresh round of blaming oil companies raking in huge profits. Meanwhile, US refining capability is basically running at max capacity and there are terrible permitting/financing disincentives for those companies to even try to use profits for building new refineries, expanding existing ones, or increasing drilling/production to try and get more in line with demand and get prices at the pump to a reasonable level for consumers. The other option is to make everyone buy electric cars they can't afford to destroy the environment much faster by mining the heavy metals needed to produce batteries, and then subsequently blow out the existing electrical grid. It's going great...

Doubles count as almost runs, and that's bad enough to be forlorn about I guess...

People forget the batspeed Hiura generates...probably because he so often forgets to hit the baseball when he swings. He's pushing an 0.800 OPS at present though