Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Fear The Chorizo

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,762

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    16

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo

  1. Fear The Chorizo
    Sure, if they pan out, said team gets 6+ years of that player, probably after at least 3-4 more years of minor league development. This type of thinking is why there are some organizations stuck in permanent rebuilding mode. The odds are stacked incredibly low for a random single A player becoming a difference maker at the MLB level compared to a former top 10 draft pick who rocketed through the minors and had rookie of the year-level success at the plate in his first extended playing time in the majors. What good would Keston Hiura do for the Pirates or Orioles? At this point in his career and even after his 1st arbitration season, he'd be a cheap MLB player with multiple years of remaining team control that they could give regular playing time to in hopes he rounds back to the what he showed he can be offensively at the major league level. It's not like Hiura's first arbitration hearing is going to grant him $10M a season, so rising cost at this point isn't really an issue. This could happen while the wave of prospects they are waiting on continues developing in the minor leagues. Hiura would be a MLB flyer noncontending teams take a shot at that could wind up being traded at a later date for more prospect talent, or if he reverts back to what he looked like in 2019 he's a MLB difference-maker.
  2. Fear The Chorizo
    We don't disagree however, that Hiura was awesome in 2019. But then again it was 3 years ago, and he's been going backwards ever since. 2020 was a ~60 game season due to COVID that didn't have any sort of clubhouse camera replay available for players to look at their ABs in between at bats...tons of players went backwards that season. 2021 saw Hiura deal with a position change to 1B and cope with watching his mother fight non-Hodgkins Lymphoma....not exactly an offseason that caters well with getting a mental break and then working hard on making adjustments to his swing/approach. 2022 has been all of a handful of games at the MLB level for Hiura - he hit well in Spring Training and has been hitting well in AAA bookending that ~month stretch where he got sporadic playing time that frankly didn't even bother to take advantage of his career-long reverse platoon splits. Reality is that Hiura has had an awful 2 years of MLB production spread over the past 2+ years (not 3), during which time he's also dealt with some difficult family health issues and most of 1 season cut short due to a pandemic.
  3. Fear The Chorizo
    one out of every 25 A-ball players develops into the player Hiura is right now - the rest flame out. If a team right now is offered the choice between Hiura and a low-minors prospect, unless that prospect is a ballyhooed player (who would essentially be untradeable to the parent organization), Hiura will be the more valuable player to pick. There would be plenty of rebuilding teams willing to take a flier on Hiura to see if they either catch lightning in a bottle longterm, or he hits well enough to flip him down the road.
  4. Fear The Chorizo
    They need to do away with humidors aside from Colorado, full stop. When you artificially change the atmospheric condition surrounding a baseball, then reintroduce it to whatever elements the actual game is being played in, many times those baseballs don't have enough time get back to some form of equilibrium before they are put into play. Part of this is paralysis by analysis - with all the statcast and data driven sports science being introduced into baseball, they're going to find something to gripe about. I'm going to go out on a pretty sturdy limb and assume there were issues with the baseballs 60-70 years ago, too. Just have a spec for how a MLB game ball needs to be made and stick to it, and stop worrying about how to manipulate the balls so they play exactly the same in Minnesota Aprils, Atlanta Junes, or San Diego Septembers.
  5. Fear The Chorizo
    For his career, Hiura is a much better hitter against RHP than LHP. Even with his bad 2020-2021 numbers, his K rate against RHP is roughly 33%, which is manageable when his OPS against righties is mid-800s. Against LHP, his career K rate jumps to 37% and his OPS plummets to sub-600. Ideally he gets his K rate in the 25-30% range, but that can be said of a ton of today's hitters in MLB. Keston's 2019 saw 18 of his 19 HR in the majors come against RHP, an astounding reverse split. Even that year at times he struggled with hitting the fastball - the all-fields aspect of Hiura's hitting seems to correlate to taking offspeed from righties that is breaking away from him to right center with authority. For whatever reason, he doesn't seem to be able to handle offspeed from lefties breaking towards him. Getting Hiura consistent MLB ABs would be much easier if he could hit left-handed pitching - he's still young enough to develop that, but it's on him to do so if he wants a long MLB career. I think he's going to get an extended run in Milwaukee at some point this year, and how he performs during that stretch will determine if they view him as their DH for 2023 or if Hiura's traded in the offseason.
  6. Fear The Chorizo
    I mean, having your second best player who also in a perennial all star healthy would be a good start to address this. Giannis is at his best with the ball in his hands, he's not a guy that's worth much on the offensive side of the floor without the ball. Finding a way to add an offensive minded combo guard and getting more athletic bigs would also be very nice.
  7. Fear The Chorizo
    Julio Jones just makes too much sense in Green Bay for it not to happen...even if GB loves all the rookie wideouts they just drafted, WR is one position that struggles to get big production from rookies, and this team is built to win now. Recent years are the exception to the rule, and Rodgers has a propensity to take a couple seasons to develop trust with inexperienced pass catchers.
  8. Fear The Chorizo
    Then maybe the solution is to give Hiura extended run as the team's DH - He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he's too talented a hitter for the Brewers to just give up on him as a longterm DH option for their organization now that the DH is in the National League. Hiura wasn't hitting well while in Milwaukee to start the season, but nobody else on the roster was, either aside from the two other hitters (Rowdy and McCutcheon) that take at bats away from him - Keston did show some signs in limited at bats but he got squeezed out of the lineup due to a numbers game and the fact he still had a minor league option. Through just over 100 plate appearances, McCutcheon's OPS is south of 0.650 and his on base percentage is below 0.300. If he doesn't pick it up and Hiura continues to rake in AAA then Hiura needs to be called up and given a legit shot at the everyday DH role. A corresponding roster move would likely wind up being someone going on the injured list.
  9. Fear The Chorizo
    Sounds like a Jaire extension getting wrapped up in short order....will make him highest paid DB in the league while freeing up more cap space - pending announcement of another veteran WR in 3....2....
  10. Fear The Chorizo
    very much agree that there's going to be another veteran WR added to the mix....and Julio Jones would be a great fit here on a prove-it 1 year deal like Watkins, plus he's got familiarity with MLF's system from back in ATL. OBJ they can probably wait to sign, as I'd imagine his ACL wouldn't be ready for game action until Nov/Dec at the earliest - I can see him signing late with a contender as another audition for a multiyear deal next offseason. plus, OBJ picked the Rams over GB last year, so I don't see him as a great fit for what this year's Packers team needs - one more veteran WR that could go off if healthy.
  11. Fear The Chorizo
    I feel like last season Williams was slow to start and took awhile to find consistency with that changeup as well. Some of that was due to other minor injuries keeping him out of action and some was just not getting the job done. If he isn't feeling pain in that hand, we can only hope his changeup rounds into form and he can rely less on having to spot that fastball to get outs - his heater has always been straight as an arrow and if he's not commanding that changeup he's going to get knocked around.
  12. Fear The Chorizo
    I think it's got alot more to do with NL Central opponent pitching - that being said, great seeing the bats wake up in a big way recently!
  13. Fear The Chorizo
    Is that 10 feet less on average compared to the 2021 season-long average, or 10 feet less from last April? There are still baseballs being crushed 450+ feet on a nightly basis, and this spring has seemingly been much cooler/damper across most of the country - particularly in the midwest and northeast. My gas bill just told me it was 9 degrees colder on average this April compared to last. I for one just wish MLB would do away with all the tinkering - ban sticky substances and pretack the balls uniformly, and with the exception of Colorado throw them all in a few buckets on gameday and care less about humidity levels. That naturally fluctuates with the seasons anyway and would probably be pretty negligible in terms of impact to the games if MLB would just stop messing with how the baseballs are constructed in the first place.
  14. Fear The Chorizo
    The current Cub roster got into their current straights by throwing $$ and prospect capital to acquire veteran pitching in hopes their formerly young and cheap position player core would win them a few more WS titles - that actually started during their WS run. Doing so dramatically thinned their farm system and jacked up their payroll to the point where their management opted to send a bunch of soon to be free agents elsewhere at last season's deadline on rental trades. I think if last season's early summer losing streak didn't happen that launched the Cubs into a firesale, at least one of Baez or Bryant + Rizzo would still be on their team. Their management's plan to go into 2022 with a reduced but not cutthroat payroll has more to do with them acknowledging how bad their organization's MLB-ready pitching talent is - and how 2022-2023 seasons are likely to be gap years before that dramatically improves. Their once-hyped core of young position players will all be largely past their primes to warrant throwing truckloads of $$ to keep them around, so it made sense for them to restock the bottom of their cupboard and try to get another wave of talent coming up together that can be bolstered via free agency in an offseason or two. All that being said, the trade of Darvish two winters ago was just weird, and frankly they've seemingly been in between the past several seasons with how they've built their major league rosters.
  15. Fear The Chorizo
    COVID couldn't have come at a worse time for the Cubs in terms of how the massive financing they took out to renovate the stadium, buy up a ton of surrounding real estate, develop it, and then have ~18 months where it generated zero gameday and event revenue right when they needed it to be operating at full capacity to start paying down debt. I'm not saying the Ricketts can or should cry poor - they bit off an awful lot more than they themselves could chew when that investment made them no money and their team payroll was through the roof. They still carry a payroll north of the Brewers this season in what amounts to a rebuild year - mainly due to recent roster mismanagement on the baseball field despite all the accolades.
  16. Fear The Chorizo
    Not exactly a surprise to see that perceived division strength rankings mirror the average payrolls across each division, with the AL Central and NL Central ranked at the bottom. That's even including the other divisional doormats who have extremely low payrolls.
  17. Fear The Chorizo
    If GB wants to target a WR in round 2, they have plenty of ammo to package one of their 2nds + a mid/late round pick to move up and get their guy at the start of another run at that position. Without even looking at who's left on the board and current draft order for round 2, I'd expect the Packers to go receiver and O-line/TE with their two 2nds and then BPA left on their board with their 3rd round pick - assuming none are used as part of a trade. However, there are some very intriguing edge/OLB options that will likely be available at 53 if the Packers have them rated super high and just want to troll Twitter with another defensive front 7 pick.
  18. Fear The Chorizo
    So you want to trade the Brewers' 2nd best starting pitcher who is indeed getting more expensive but still won't reach free agency until after the 2024 season, plus one of the organization's top position player prospects that may very well be a solid bat in the MLB lineup if given the opportunity a couple seasons from now, for: a good offensive 3B who will be a free agent after the 2023 season and currently making almost double Woodruff's 2022 salary and one of the Red Sox's other top prospects at a corner IF position? Yeesh
  19. Fear The Chorizo
    Any time a draft goes on a run of players at a certain position in Round 1, you don't want to be on the end of that big run and wind up reaching - the better option is to identify what that run opens up in terms of talent at other positions falling into your lap. That's exactly what the Packers did last night. It wouldn't surprise me if GB winds up signing for a veteran WR and even using draft picks today to trade for an impact veteran WR. After Brown got dealt yesterday, there are still several wideouts looking to be traded/paid that GB could go after, too. You don't have to be a 1st round pick to wind up being a great wide receiver in the NFL - the Packers of all teams know that all too well. Thinking there's going to be a day 2 pick that knows how to run some pass patterns who will wind up being selected tonight. As of this morning, GB's defense doesn't have a weak spot.
  20. Fear The Chorizo
    Putting Wyatt next to Clark in the middle is a pretty solid way to build a defense from the inside out
  21. Fear The Chorizo
    Gute's favorite fruit is most definitely a peach - by the bushel baskets
  22. Fear The Chorizo
    For one, Walker has 4 inches and 20 lbs on Dean and is a much better fit in GBs scheme
  23. Fear The Chorizo
    Packer defense has consistently struggled to stop the run and cover TE's in the passing game. Walker is a solution to both problems and he's got some bonifides as an occasional edge rusher or blitzer.
  24. Fear The Chorizo
    When the Packers have traded up early in the draft, from what I remember there's been no rumors about it until you'd see the Packer helmet surprisingly show up in the 'on the clock' graphic right as they were announcing the trade. Having 2 first rounders at the start of this draft is a different animal (particularly with 9 more picks in later rounds behind it), so I'm expecting an active first two nights from Gute - if he does trade up and make a move that reduces the 4 picks in the first two rounds I think it's going to be way up. Otherwise it could be a bunch of deck chair shuffling with trades as other teams move in and out around them and they wind up with two-three mid to late 1st rounders between #18-32.
  25. Fear The Chorizo
    I'm hoping the Packers pick 3 times in Round 1 by the end of tonight - using a mix of 2nd/mid round draft picks and perhaps a player. I'd be happy if they wound up picking 4 players in the first two rounds, but would be ecstatic getting 3 first rounders with that 5th yr option in their contracts. Also wouldn't shock me if after tonight they picked twice in round one but no longer have some of their 2nd/3rd round picks or a backup quarterback - because they just dealt Love and draft capital for an impact veteran pass catcher. The exciting part to me is how many different ways tonight could go that wind up with me being happy at decisions made - seems like a really good year to have a bunch of picks in the top 60!
×
×
  • Create New...