Fear The Chorizo

MN is now pleading for anyone who even thinks they have Covid-19 symptoms to go get tested...they easily have capacity for 10k tests per day but have only been able to test around 4k per day on average over the last 10 days because there isnt demand for more...that's even with testing extremely high percentages of meat processing plants, prisons, etc... The problem is so many people are asymptomatic...could be pointing to mutations of the virus weakening.

Yup, I traveled through Wisconsin to the Chicago area last weekend...no pullovers and really no cops in general. Did the same drive yesterday and there were countless pullovers and speed traps. Last weekend traffic was flowing at 85-95mph on I-90 just south of Madison, absolutely insane. The slowest person was doing high-70s. Someone from Minneapolis told me traffic was down 50% at one point, but accidents were up 30%. Expect that to continue...gotta get some sort of revenue coming back to fund govt services. Cops could easily be ticketing to make sure they keep their jobs funded.

This is pretty much where I'm at with all this...I think there are some measures that should be extended longer term for at risk populations, but by and large we're past the point of diminishing returns extending stay at home orders to the general public further in terms of it providing any sort of overall public health benefit - especially compared to the negative economic/societal/public health impact these orders will have being extended too long. https://www.drjohnm.org/2020/05/can-we-discuss-flatten-the-curve-in-covid19-my-eight-assertions/ One problem with assessing effect of one size fits all stay at home orders compared to the modified approach several states or countries have made that never fully shut down (Sweden, Iowa/SD/etc) is that they were likely enacted several weeks too late in the US to help in dense population centers where the virus was already spreading (New York/NJ). The prevailing school of thought is that these orders must have saved lives and helped slow the spread - I'm sure they have compared to enacting no mitigation measures at all, especially during the initial 2-3 weeks in dense population centers when hospital capacities and equipment were very questionable...but that level of confidence drops significantly when trying to compare stay at home order states to ones that never fully shut down "nonessential" activities but did enact social distancing mitigation measures. Adding in the obvious differences in population density and many other factors when trying to compare how different areas have fared leads to many unknown variables at this point - particularly with actual case counts not being anywhere close to well established. For example, how is AZ seemingly skating by with minimal impact when hundreds of thousands of snowbird retirees were down there coupled with an influx of people for MLB spring training and many other seasonal tourism trips? How is FLA continuing to have relatively limited impact with a huge elderly population and similar snowbird temporary residents after being late on issuing a stay at home order and early to reopen? There is no question the stay at home order goalposts have been moved since they were initially enacted - and the justification for doing so is not based on the reasoning they were enacted in the first place (medical system capacity concerns). These extensions might help delay when certain areas reach peak hospital capacity demand, but they aren't going to reduce the ultimate spread of infections. Had the preliminary models used the 0.3% population-wide mortality rate this virus will likely be determined to land, coupled with the targeted hospitalization rates of different age groups, there wouldn't have been one size fits all shutdowns enacted in the first place...and places like New York probably wouldn't have sent Covid patients not needing a ventilator to nursing homes to finish recovering. My biggest downer thus far comes after speaking with multiple people working in elderly care / alzheimer facilities over the past few weeks...They are seeing rapid declines in their residents and are losing them much sooner than they would have expected - these facilities haven't been exposed to coronavirus, but the measures staff are having to take coupled with the lack of actual interactions with family/friends is devastating to quality of life in those settings...it's heartbreaking, especially considering that any sort of virus mitigation measures would be impacting nursing home facilities and the most vulnerable at the twilight of their lives the same way.

Sort of feel like we're in a no-man's land where most of the easy to open stuff is open and the closures are mostly things with large complications. Miller Park, crowded bars, etc. I have my own opinions on stuff, but at least if bars/restaurants can open in some capacity there would be some travel demand, maybe. I hope. This has already been brought up here but it is funny to me that you can't sit down at a diner but Home Depot is OK. Has anyone been a HD on the weekend during this? Mine was an absolute zoo last weekend. I'd never seen it so crowded. Here in MN they are trying to limit how many people are actually inside at any time - so people gather in a herd in the parking lot waiting in line...then once you are inside if you go out to the outdoor lawn and garden area you better not have a reason to go back in. It's kind of like airport TSA checkpoints... I personally feel like everything should be given the opportunity to reopen while applying social distancing guidelines and that should have happened a few weeks ago - IMO that wouldn't mean 100% of people would instantly run out and cram into confined spaces two nights before going to visit their great grandparent in a nursing home...but maybe I give too many people the benefit of the doubt. IMO more places open in some form give people more places to go, and it helps to thin out public herds at grocery stores, boat landings, golf courses, etc. My company has offices basically everywhere in the US, and our approach to reopening offices is to insist on continued wfh if you have the ability to do so indefinitely - whether you are in New York, TX, or Wyoming and independent from whether a state has lifted its shelter in place order or not. We also have special guidance for people to avoid public transit when some of our downtown city offices reopen - and even then we will be returning to offices in shifts, keeping staff capacity at 50% and limiting how many different people interact with each other. Face coverings would be required in common areas of the office along with daily temp screenings. I'm sure most businesses have worked hard sorting out ways to reopen with an increased level of safety - bars and restaurants included. hopefully a good percentage of them are given the opportunity to do so before they go under.

Take a breath and be patient...or maybe people just shouldnt drop as much money next year on tickets if getting refunded for these games cancelled for previously unforeseen circumstances ASAP saves foreclosing on a home. I get that 99 percent of us are in a fiscal crunch, myself included, but it's been 7 weeks since this thing went bonkers. Give mlb some time to sort out how the hell they are going to make this work when there still isnt anything close to goalposts established for how the rest of 2020 will look for them on the calendar. Covid has destroyed plenty of business models, including how pro sports teams generate revenue - give then time to adjust, and be realistic about what teams will actually be able to provide ticketholders for this volume of cancelled games knowing they arent sitting on heaps of cash. As much as people dont want to admit it, ticket sales dollars have already been spent or are earmarked to be spent during this year by all of the mlb clubs to help pay all sorts of operating costs not even associated with player payroll...and a big chunk of it has gotten tossed into the player payroll kitty that pays players through may whether there are games played or not during that time. Clubs will give ticket refunds eventually, but they will need to take out loans or find capital in other ways to do so. If TV revenue doesnt start showing up with games being played, there will be teams in fiscal trouble before too long.

Considering the fact there aren't even starbucks barista jobs available to college MBA degree holders anymore, that's going to be obvious for any companies that are actually hiring people right now. There are many more companies permanently closing their doors each day compared to posting job openings, unfortunately. That new hire is likely thrilled to have any job prospects that include benefits at this point. Touching on the elearning posts, I can see college courses moving that way heavily after this - but elementary/middle school education needs to happen in the classroom. Perhaps some high school courses can be done via elearning to get kids used to that technology and help develop self-discipline/work ethic traits. Colleges are going to have to restructure their system or die, because their surging costs to obtain increasingly diminished value degrees aren't going to hold up in the face of plummeting enrollments and cratered state budgets that are going to hit them - particularly public university systems. I also think we will see many more households with two parents and young children operate using 1 income and stay at home parent who might add gig work on the side to save on daycare/before after school care for the next few years. There just won't be an immediate surge in job reopenings as we crawl out of this hole, and people are going to be hesitant to start paying through the teeth to have someone else watch their children when they can manage to do so. Daycares will still be around as there are many family situations that require them - however there won't be a new one opening up on every other street corner because demand will be diminished. There is also going to be a bigger surge in urban flight by people with means to do so than was already occurring before Covid - particularly after the coming food supply issues present themselves a month or so down the road. A hobby farm with 10 acres that can readily be converted into a self-sustaining food plot that has a good internet connection to help a remote worker pay the bills makes alot more sense than a 1,000 square foot studio in a high rise that is 1 closed processing plant away from becoming a food desert during a pandemic, IMO.

It's not about re-messaging - It's about framing what the original message should have been properly when this all started 6-7 weeks ago. The error state and federal government officials made when all these orders were initially enacted is not emphasizing to the general public that these measures were taken to prevent the initial virus infection spike from overwhelming an unprepared medical system - once it was apparent that the initial spike wasn't going to overwhelm the medical system, states should have started reopening for nonvulnerable populations weeks ago while maintaining shelter in place requirements for the elderly and vulnerable (with the exception of the area closest to suffering a catastrophic surge in hospitalizations - New York/New Jersey). Unfortunately, now people freak out when they see two days in a row of increased case counts or deaths without factoring in when testing increases occurred that directly correlate to higher cumulative case totals or where hospitalization rates are trending, and they are making ill-informed opinions about what measures are working and what aren't. When they were imposed, shelter in place orders should have never, ever been viewed to reduce the spread of the virus to zero among the general population - they were imposed to slow its spread among the vulnerable populations and medical personnel so the outbreak could be managed across its entire arc and hot spot areas across the country wouldn't all happen simultaneously. It's a good thing that younger/non-vulnerable people continue to contract and process the virus over time, because building even some immunity/antibodies among a larger percentage of the population will help reduce the severity of future infection spikes next fall/winter for those in vulnerable populations who haven't yet gotten infected. Too many people went into shelter in place thinking that it meant after 1,2, or at worst case 6 months of doing so the virus would be gone across the country and there wouldn't be a prolonged infection risk if we all just did a really good job of it. That just isn't true now, and it never was once it was known how infectious the virus is. To make current matters worse, early on in this process there was not nearly enough concern for weighing economic, social, and general public health costs to imposing these orders indefinitely - particularly without clarifying should regional medical systems prove capable of managing the initial spike in their areas, the stay at home orders would begin loosening to the overall benefit of public health and economic recovery. The revenue crunch is most certainly part of the equation on this whether people like it or not...frankly it always should have been when assessing how to move forward beyond the initial few weeks of government-imposed orders shuttering so much of what people do so abruptly. The fact that even states with extended stay at home orders are pushing to get as much open presently as possible points to them knowing this was the likely timeframe it needed to start happening to avoid economic/societal damage done by the measures outweighing any health benefit implementing them has provided.

I could care less what pundits rated a draft two days after it happened. Post draft grades the day after are hilarious to read a few years later. For example, the 2011 seahawks draft was given F to D plus grades by many experts. That draft included kj Wright in the 4th and Richard Sherman in the 5th. They had few early round picks due to other trades, but they also landed two starting offensive lineman in those rounds for the team that won a super bowl.

To me that just reinforces the point many have on getting more businesses/activities opened up that can be operated with a heightened level of social distancing, and giving sensible people the ability to decide for themselves how they choose to carry on their day to day. The events you described violate any social distancing guidance, whether it's in an open state or a shelter in place state. IL is shelter in place through all of May and this stuff is still happening there. Dumb people are going to do dumb things no matter where they are. IMO having states that try to limit the general public too long are going to be the ones that experience a second and likely larger wave of infections, because the people there will act foolishly once things are allowed to reopen.

Yep - A 2WR/TE formation with Rodgers in the shotgun, motioning Jones out to the slot and then still having a sledgehammer with speed in the backfield as a running threat with 6 blockers in front of him would be fun to see.

That total falls in line with an overall statewide reduction in infection rate for the state following the primary as compared to before it: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/health-med-fit/no-bump-in-covid-19-rates-after-wisconsins-april-7-election-study-says/article_b1aade1d-abec-5fc2-92fb-e1c64ccbc92f.html There's no way to directly and reliably link specific Covid-19 infections to individuals actually voting compared to performing any other task where they may have come in contact with the virus in the same timeframe that would lead to them getting infected. You have to look at overall statewide infections, and frankly that's probably also too unreliable at this point because results are only as good as # of people tested. the statewide rate of infection has dropped since early April, not risen. If something like in person voting was a significant cause of infections compared to other everyday tasks people have been doing, that infection rate would have spiked over the last two weeks. Not saying that nobody was infected while going to vote - but likely just as many if not many more got infected that same day getting groceries or getting gas at the pump. I said before the election happened that there won't be "proof" either way, just opinions - because there's just no way to accurately assess the impact of something like an election compared to everything else when there's no way to have a good handle on where the virus was across the population on April 6 versus immediately after.

That team has backed itself into salary cap hell over the last couple years, and it has led to a ton of holes and absolutely no depth. They needed to use this draft to build depth back up again. But it isn't like they've had a 100% terrific draft. Jefferson was a solid pick and should be a good replacement for Diggs. But Gladney profiles as a nickel corner, and Dantzler had a very good college career, but tested absolutely terribly at the combine ... like almost the worst CB athletic profile in history bad. Cleveland was a very good pick for them, and will likely start at RT for a decade. I wanted him to be a Packer, although the Spriggs comparison that many have made is alarming. The Vikings weren't as good as the Packers last year, and arguably had bigger holes to fill on their team. They also had a ton more draft capital gained through trades. I agree that they seem to be piling up late round picks as a way to make sure they have their pick of the UDFA-type guys today. Indications that a pile of those picks were headed to the Redskins for trent Williams but Williams nixed the deal. If a team actually has enough roster space available to draft 15 plus players in one draft and have them all make the team, it's got major problems. I'd expect the vikes to make a few trades today where they simply give up picks this year to get extra picks in future drafts.

Areas that finally do ramp up testing significantly will see many more cases, but I doubt that spike will lead to significant increases in hospitalizations - which is the critical element that needs to be tracked. More testing on more of the population will simply lead to the realization coronavirus has spread to many more people than presently assumed and not seeing the spike in hospitalizations will help reinforce it isn't as deadly as even currently presumed. As for tracking states that reopen versus states that don't...I honestly don't think we will see a significant difference between the two, because of how widespread the virus already is. Even the states that are reopening are going to restrict large public gatherings and set limits on capacity for people in restaurants, bars, stores, etc. That plus elderly/vulnerable people need to continue isolating/protecting themselves regardless of what state they live in. Maybe I'm too naive, but I give people the benefit of the doubt where they aren't all going to pile on top of each other in states that largely reopen just because they can. It wouldn't surprise me to see states with orders currently extended into late May turn them into swiss cheese before they expire by continuing to allow more types of businesses/activities to resume operating - which should be the case if data continues to show no difference between sheltering and opening states. That will prove to be the temporary "new normal" everywhere starting a few weeks from now, and we'll just see how things progress into the summer.

It's just unfortunate it had to be about the NFL draft, where pretty much everyone's reasoning/opinions are likely to be more speculative and wrong than coronavirus hot takes.

Gute is playing chess while others play checkers...Rodgers now gets dealt to qb-needy New England for a haul, then the next season gets cancelled due to Covid and he has a boatload of cap space and draft picks to play with for the 2021 season I hope Love becomes a great qb for the Pack..but I could honestly have a hard time caring less about it at this point. If he was best player available on their board, now is actually a great time to go get yourself a quarterback that needs time to develop. I thought the same thing when they drafted Rodgers, but admittedly it's a bit different situation with the team being solidly in playoff contention and not rebuiliding. It's one of two moves every GM makes at some point to put a stamp on the franchise they run. The other is getting their guy in at coach. Hopefully Gute is as successful at coach and qb selection as Thompson and Wolf were.

Pretty sure you could replace "At the risk of being" with "I'm extremely" in the above post. Jeez...

Honest question - if the mlb organization no longer has those funds due to debt, player/organization payroll, and many other overhead payments, what grounds do fans have asking for money back at this point when the games haven't been formally cancelled? I would think these sort of reimbursements would come in the form of credit or vouchers for future games, similar to rainouts but on a much larger scale. I'd be shocked if mlb clubs actually have piles of cash laying around they could refund ticketholders at this point...in fact I think the solvency of many pro sports leagues is alot more tenuous than we all assume with the likelihood of plummeting revenue streams and limited appetite for advertisers to spend big bucks right now.

Average humidity in wisconsin February 2019 - low 70s Average humidity in Louisiana February 2019 - mid 70s Last time I checked the outbreak in Louisiana didnt occur in July when it's actually high humidity. And Louisiana doesnt have significantly higher humidity in February when compared to winter climates. Plus you are cherry picking a state that probably has some of the worst air pollution in the country due to industry in some of its hardest hit areas of viral spread that leads to a higher than normal occurrence of respiratory comorbidities. I'm actually surprised their death toll isnt much higher than it is given the fact Mardi gras basically went off without any restrictions right before everyone freaked out. Humid air has more water in it that can absorb airborne particles, and that added material in air prevents aerosols from spreading as far as they would in drier air. There doesnt need to be a study on that. Humidity probably doesnt do anything to kill the actual virus, but it does help prevent how easily it could spread in the air, which would in turn lower its R parameter.

The goal is to keep it flat. The only way it stays flat indefinitely is if powers that be and the masses are both willing to sacrifice their livelihoods and risk getting sicker from all the other maladies that require more than a teladoc appointment to diagnose. That simply wont happen, and frankly it's not the right way to look at how to deal with this virus over the next few months. I'd rather a spike in infections happen this summer in the US, during times when higher humidity levels help to weigh down aerosol-borne virus particles and knock them out of the breathing zone much faster than during winter (drier air)....which will ultimately help to slow the rate of spread. The other option is to delay, delay, delay, create another economic depression, likely leading to riots and borderline marshall law, then see the inevitable spike this fall/winter during the worst possible time of year, as the normal flu season also ramps up. Also, state governments are starting to hold their hands out after realizing the fiscal calamity this is bringing on themselves. An IL state senator wants to ask for roughly 50 billion in federal aid for their state alone (the original CARES act allotted 250 billion in aid for 50 states total)...of which at least 10 billion of that request would just go straight to trying to fill the hole in their broken pension fund, which was broken back in february before this cratered their tax receipts. Never let a good crisis go to waste, I guess.

https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_PPT_tcm1148-427787.pdf Slides 13-16 pretty much show key modeled estimates. For reference, "Scenario 1" was MN's initial projections assuming nothing was done social distance-wide in mid-February. "Scenario 2" was basically that same model with a revised increase in available ICU beds AND the initial virus parameter changes that significantly downgraded Covid-19's lethality and hospitalization rate back in early April. That initial mortality reduction between Scenario 1 and 2 had little to do with sheltering in place, it was all about having increased ICU capacity and changes to the virus parameters as data was becoming more available that wasn't skewed from China or from targeted vulnerable populations in Italy. "Scenario 3" would have been ending the statewide stay at home order about a week ago in April for people not considered to be vulnerable populations. "Scenario 4" is the current approach - which is the stay at home order through early May and staged reopenings. "Scenarios 3.1 and 3.2" would have been ending the initial stay at home order a week ago, but extending other measures to vulnerable populations even longer. The difference between modeled deaths and hospitalizations between any of Scenarios 3, 4, 3.1, and 3.2 are statistically negligible - particularly considering the ranges those estimates are based on. The graphs of peak hospitalizations are the most telling, however - as shown, no matter how long a stay at home order is extended, there will be a significant peak in infections/hospitalizations after those orders are lifted. These models use parameter from available data in early April - I still think those inputs overestimate hospitalizations/deaths, and they don't factor in improvements in treatment or effective contract tracing testing (if that ever happens), but the models are still valuable in showing how their projected peak hospitalizations/peak death dates are determined.

Whether people totally buy into them or not, the same models utilized to initiate the stay at home orders in the first place point to us rapidly approaching a point of diminished returns from a Covid-19 public health standpoint for extending the orders for everyone well into May/June or even beyond - that doesn't even factor the likely issue of us already being well beyond the point of economic hardship that is going to lead to longterm struggles for tens of millions of Americans and the state & local units of government representing them, and if we aren't careful we will see a worse public health crisis evolve from extended lapses with all the other comorbidities and conditions that aren't being treated routinely right now. The MN state modeling indicated its estimated overall death total across the full arc of the pandemic response would be almost unchanged had stay at home measures started getting lifted a week ago versus extending their current stay at home order for everyone into early May - the difference was the peak hospitalization rate would have occurred by early June compared to mid July, so the governor's primary reasoning for extending the order a few weeks ago was to buy hospitals more time to have ICU bed surge capacity in the state. If states/local units of government have enough hospital capacity and ICU surge capability to manage the anticipated surges in hospitalizations, they need to start allowing things to reopen much sooner than late May for the majority of working and school-aged people who aren't immunocompromised or have cormorbidities that make them more vulnerable for symptoms leading to hospitalization - not saying open up everything instantly, but much more than what the stay at home orders and exceptions currently allow. Keep in mind that these models could be revised further down in terms of death and hospitalization totals should improved/increased testing and effective contract tracing actually happen, which is a critical element to diminish and isolate future infection spikes along with figuring out improved treatments/therapies. I'm guessing the next round of modeling will start coming out soon from many different sources, and my hope is that if the data continues to revise estimates lower for certain states, current stay at home orders can be lifted before they expire just as easily as they were extended if they are determined to be excessive. Keep the vulnerable isolated longer, stay the current course in population centers that have been hardest hit a bit longer than other minimally impacted areas, but get everyone else moving forward to the next stage in dealing with coronavirus - which is living with it as a society. The sooner we get away from a one size fits all approach, the better off we will be overall. The hospitalization/death estimates coming from China are still garbage even after today's revisions, but I think the reason they are able to say they have very limited new cases happening in Wuhan right now is that a huge chunk of that population was infected with the virus after it was allowed to run rampant for almost two months once it started spreading. Wuhan may be the one spot on earth that has built up a herd immunity - my guess is that came at the expense of a huge amount of deaths because letting Covid-19 burn through a population unchecked is not the solution, either. It stinks we will never get decent data from there on what the percentage of people who currently have antibodies in their system actually is.

I wish they would replace essential/non-essential work or leisure item descriptions with something like "social distance-compliant / non-compliant" categorizations. It's dumb to label golf, boat dock installations, or landscaping work as "essential services" in the same category as healthcare or grocery stores. Even if governors aren't trying to it looks like they're picking winners and losers, which is going to lead to backlash now matter how rational it appears to be. That's just what's going to happen when tens of millions of people lose their job per government order.

I get the lengthening of a school year pushback under normal circumstances, but since this past month has probably taken several years off all our lives with what appears to be at least another month or two of the same, to me I'd welcome taking something like attempting to do school at home off parents' and kids' plates. Particularly for elementary-aged kids that require alot more adult supervision to get things done.

Yea. Online learning is starting to lose its luster to the kids too. Guess I'll have to try and set up a google meet to see some of my student faces. Honest question for those of you who are teachers/administrators - for students not planning to graduate high school, how difficult would it be for states to just end the current school year pronto or end of April, with the plan of finishing that last month in August in a classroom setting before sending the kids to the next grade up when school is scheduled to resume around labor day weekend? Wouldn't that be a better option than forcing both kids and teachers to try and limp along poorly with elearning programs that drive parents insane trying help with - particularly those who are trying to WFH and have elementary aged children who aren't Bill Gates - tech savvy, or even harder on parents who are teachers and have to do lesson planning + make sure their own kids are "in school"??

First confirmed case in Georgia was March 2. If you did have it you'd have been one of the very first cases in the state. Was that first confirmed case a hospitalization/death? Based on some initial studies for every 1 of those there are probably dozens of completely asymptomatic cases/mild symptom cases that would have been afterthoughts to the individual infected at that time, also making them unwitting carriers of it wherever they went. When was the first testing even done in Georgia? Sounding like coronavirus was likely circulating in CA as far back as late December, in New York for sure by early February - ATL's airport makes Georgia a natural hub for coronavirus cases showing up there well before the US even started testing severe cases that led to hospitalizations. While the theory of coronavirus spreading worldwide as far back as November appears to be incorrect, alot of things point to it reaching US travel hubs and start spreading at a community level well before any testing/screening results were done on travelers returning from supposed hot spots in late February/early March. It's definitely not far-fetched for coronavirus to be in ATL's airport in mid-february. That's even after many european countries were starting to see confirmed cases and realizing their testing was way behind where the virus had already spread. So initial Georgia infections wouldn't just be travel from China, it would include travel back from europe and many US cities as well.