Fear The Chorizo

Lol...please hit it at someone other than hiura or he us going to disintegrate out there

Wow....that was brutal Keston

They were balls on the TV screen I'm looking at

The juiced ball forced it's way out!

Not mentioned nearly enough when it actually happens, this ump is calling a terrific strike zone

Math doesnt factor in craigtember...too bad for math!

Sounds like too much champagne and beer...pick one and stick to it, Eric!! There's probably going to be a conga line of substitutions today.

But it's Brenneman's last home game broadcast - they'll leave Castillo in there for 150 pitches to give Marty the shot at calling a complete game!

The issue IMO is the projections are used to make predictions, and when the counter argument is raised that there's a chance for a different outcome it gets poo-pooed because there's a 90% or whatever chance of that counter argument being wrong. Games are still played that swing the projections nightly, and those swings happen rapidly this time of year when multiple teams are within a handful of games in the standings. Projections for teams like the Yankees, Astros, Twins, etc making the postseason are very likely to hold up as predictive because they all had built up massive separation between them and the teams just outside the WC2 playoff spot. Despite the Brewers playing meh as a club from June through most of August, they remained just 3 games out of a playoff spot and 6 behind the division heading into September. Teams make 3 games up in the standings over a full month all the time. Setting their playoff odds at below 10% at that point was too low considering how close they were in the standings, particularly with upcoming games against the Cubs and Cards to make up ground quickly if they played well. Even if the Cubs didn't just lose 8 straight and buried themselves, the Brewers playing this well would actually have them in a stronger playoff position because they would have the central division lead at this point given that the Cards would have a few more losses and the Cubs/Cards would have been guaranteed 3 more losses between them with the final series of the season this weekend.

This FanGraphs article took a pretty in depth look at the Cards four game sweep of the Cubs... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-lay-waste-to-the-cubs-2019-season/ Key takeaway... If you think a team dropping more than 50 percentage points in four games calls the playoff odds into question, consider that the Cubs odds of getting swept were 3.4%. The Brewers odds of winning four straight games at the same time was 12.5%. The odds of both happening at the same time are 0.4%, around one in 240. That’s what it took for the Cubs to enter the series with 58% playoff odds and leave it under 3%. Yup - pretty much indicates that percentages are reactive, particularly when you start looking at them in small sample sizes without factoring in how teams are playing at the end of a season. I've thought since early September that the Cubs looked to be on fumes and had a good chance of cratering down the stretch due to key injuries and starting pitching inconsistency aside from the roll Darvish has been on. What it actually took for the Cubs to go from 58% playoff odds to basically doneso in 4 games was them losing 4 winnable games against their main competitor for the division (Cards) while the Brewers beat up on weaker competition and started that stretch only 1 game behind the Cubs in the standings...Cubs were basically losing 3 games in the standings to their postseason competitors with every loss to the Cards coupled with a Brewers win. This swing can happen frequently during the course of a season, but the playoff odds don't swing as wildly when there are still 100, 50, even 25 games left to play in a season. Bottom line - when the math still gives a team a chance and there are head to head opportunities to rapidly climb or plummet the ladder in the standings at the end of the season, throw the playoff odd percentages out the window. For what Fangraphs used for 4 game sweep percentages, I'd argue the Brewers 12.5% odds of winning 4 games during that stretch was far too low based on how they were playing and who they were playing those games against...while the Cubs' odds of losing 4 home games to the Cards at 3.4% was also far too low considering the same things. I'd have put those two outcomes around 20% (Brewers win 4) and 10% (Cubs get swept over 4) - which still makes that outcome very unlikely, but much more possible than 0.4%. This time of year, I like looking at those playoff odd percentages AND the remaining schedule to see just how much control a team has of its own destiny - the Brewers had a very low chance of making even a wildcard berth just a few weeks ago, but their schedule and their competitor's remaining schedules gave them almost full control of its destiny despite a limited number of head to head matchups against teams they were chasing. Because of that, their playoff odds were reactive directly to their performance much more than projective. Cubs had the same situation, just to the opposite effect (almost a lock to done in the blink of a couple weeks).

lol...just after they finally got around to updating the Brewers' 2019 projected win total to 83 even though it now stands at 88.

19-4 in september thus far...just bonkers They were 19-7 in September 2018

Anything can happen in the playoffs, but I doubt there is an NL team that would want to face the brewers in a 5 game series with a rested bullpen - that is saying a ton considering their best player is injured and their rotation is hodgepodge at best. This team is actually on a bigger roll than september 2018

Anything can happen in the playoffs, but I doubt there is an NL team that would want to face the brewers in a 5 game series with a rested bullpen - that is saying a ton considering their best player is injured and their rotation is hodgepodge at best. This team is actually on a bigger roll than september 2018

Please, please, please give the cubs some reason to win the cards series this weekend.. if they do, the crew will take care of their business and win this division again!

Please, please, please give the cubs some reason to win the cards series this weekend.. if they do, the crew will take care of their business and win this division again!

Its happening!

Its happening!

The SEC is masterful at scheduling - byes or creampuffs always right before marquee rivalry games, and one less conference game to keep teams propped up in the rankings with 1 fewer loss. Seems like the Big Ten may be attempting to match that up a bit. Also, Alabama's schedule is a flipping JOKE this year. I get that they are talented and deserving of a high ranking, but they basically get a bye until going on the road to TX A&M October 12...then LSU and Auburn late in the season for quality opponents, it just sets up to keep Alabama close to the top 5 even if they lose to one of these teams and re-enter the conversation of a CFP candidate despite not even playing in its conference title game should LSU or Auburn knock them off. I for one will be completely turned off seeing Clemson and Alabama in the CFP for like the 18th consecutive season even if they are deserving...

reality is that for most of the instructional, rookie level, and even minors through high A the players spend much more time practicing/developing than playing games. In fact it's basically a year round process that can include winter leagues or training facilities that give players this kind of attention to work on their game. Pitching/throwing is a bit different, as I'm a big proponent of giving sufficient time to rest throwing arms to help prevent injury. It's not like high school JV, where kids have 2-3 weeks to practice after winter sports season before being thrown out there to play ~25 games in April-May after school. The games are actually icing on the cake to players, not the whole meal. What is being discussed is already largely put into practice with the instructional and rookie leagues. And there are plenty of perceived minor league "stand-in" players who have turned into good major league players - going heavily to a training center model would actually diminish the overall talent pool and make the game worse, IMO, because you'd be too heavily reliant on projecting amateur (high school, collegiate, international) talent developing and miss out on late bloomers or guys with marginal talent that maximize it on the field during games.

Its rinse and repeat of 2018...only it's a different team we love to hate! Cubs look dead, but they still have a shot at giving the cards fits this weekend and actually helping things. Sure would have been nice for them to not blow at least 1 of those 4 games this past weekend, though. I've been one to view this dbacks series as a stumbling block for the cards, but they need to lose today in order for the brewers to have alot of life for the division. Even if it doesnt happen and the cards keeps winning, there should be ample time for the brewers to get their pitching lined up for a wildcard game. Basically they win once more and they are in, which is crazy where they were back in late August! What a run!!

On one hand, yes, you're right. On the other, the Nats don't have to play this one like a regular season game. Their pen is a huge reason they lost 70 games. They could go Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg for 3 innings each and avoid that crappy pen altogether if they really want to. Doubt they would because it would really hurt them for the NLDS, but they can. Obviously we can play it differently too -- I would guess we'll do everything to make sure that Hader is available for 2+ as well as our other high leverage pen arms. Those wildcard games are so funky - maybe it's just my gut feeling, but it feels like the teams that try and monkey with how they approach 9 innings from a pitching standpoint wind up shooting themselves in the foot more often than not. Sometimes bringing in great starters mid-game backfires because they just aren't used to the routine of coming into a game mid-innings.

We got a ballgame in the desert...

It's still too early to look at remaining schedule and project win ranges, but if the Packers win this Thursday in any fashion against the Eagles it's very difficult to see them finishing any worse than 12-4 with their remaining slate unless there are key injuries on both sides of the ball. That's even with still having the Cowboys, Chiefs, and 4 more divisional games on the schedule. I also have a tough time finding anything from Thursday night game results that's helpful for determining where a team is going - players are still shaking off soreness from the prior Sunday's games, and home teams typically have big advantages for not having to travel just 3 days after a game. Hoping for a win and for us to keep trying to nitpick team weaknesses despite a 4-0 record!

Really hoping the Badgers put a woodshed beating on the Wildcats this Saturday - too often these games are far too close for my liking, even if the Wildcats are grossly outmanned in the talent department. They got thumped last week by the Spartans and nothing about their body of work indicates they can make this Saturday a game, but the Badgers get to spend all week hearing about how great they are and they'll be without two defensive starters for a half due to those targeting penalties. It's a trap game no matter how hard the team prepares and states they are focused only on Northwestern. Call me nervously optimistic...frankly I'll be happy with any sort of win, but it wouldn't surprise me if a marginal win actually causes them to drop in the rankings and then find themselves ranked behind some 1-loss SEC team despite remaining undefeated a few weeks from now until they play at OSU.